LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA

1. October 18-20, 2010 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA

2. October 18-20, 2010 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA Airport Capacity Session Kent Duffy Senior Airport Planner Federal Aviation Administration kent.duffy@faa.gov

3. Agenda FAA Airport Capacity Guidance Airport Capacity and Delay AC Replacement NextGen and Airport Capacity Planning 3

4. FAA Airport Capacity Guidance Methods, approach, data sources, and coordination for capacity analysis will vary substantially with airport complexity and project scope Multiple FAA sources for capacity guidance: AC 150/5070-6B Airport Master Plans AC 150/5060-5 Airport Capacity and Delay FAA Airport Benefit Cost Analysis Guidance FAA JO 7110.65T Air Traffic Control AC 150/5300 Airport Design Goal is to develop a capacity analysis that is reasonable, defensible, and adequate to inform project decisions 4

5. Plan for the Capacity Analysis supporting multiple needs Master PlanCapacity AnalysisMethod/Approach BaselineCapacity NEPA Noise/EmissionsDocument Alternatives Screening andSelection BCA Delay Savings

6. Choose an appropriate Method/Approach Less Data, level of detail, complexity, time/cost More Reach consensus with Sponsor, FAA, operators, and other stakeholders in advance on approach

7. Data Sources • Operational Data • Surveillance data: FAA ASR, PDARS, airport systems (e.g., ANOMS) • Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) @ aspm.faa.gov • Air Carrier movements: Gate Out, Wheels Off, Wheels On, Gate In (OOOI) • ETMS, ASQP, and other sources • ATC and Operators • Coordination with the ATCT and/or TRACON is vital, early and throughout the project • Airline Chief Pilots can be excellent resources • Airline Gate Schedules • Other • National Climatic Data Center – hourly weather observations • Bureau of Transportation Statistics – Airline Performance/Delays/Costs Comprehensive, detailed data sources exist to support capacity analysis

8. Metrics and Limitations Range of potential metrics: Annual Capacity/Annual Service Volume (ASV) Hourly Capacity/Throughput 15-minute demand/capacity throughput can be helpful in examining impact of schedule peaks Pareto curves can be useful in showing capacity ranges during Arrival Push, Departure Push, and Mixed Operations Average Delay and 90th or 95th Percentile Delay Recognize Limitations, particularly for runway-centric models Ability of the airspace to move aircraft to/from the runway Taxi movements, runway crossings, and gates can be significant constraints Weather: VFR/MVFR/IFR and Minimum Vectoring Altitude Typical Metrics

9. Key Points In an era of airline schedule uncertainty, evaluate demand levels not specific years Recognize effect of airline schedule peaks on results ASV is a screening tool not project justification Identifying airports as ‘congested’ or having ‘unacceptable delay’ is a moving target Recognize limitations of data and models in interpreting results Be wary of inadequate analysis – there is never time to do it right, but there is always time to do it over Adequate coordination with ATC and operators can substantially improve confidence in the analysis 9

10. Capacity and Delay AC ReplacementAC 150/5060-5 Tech CenterDraft AC + Rules of Thumb Legacy150/5060-5~1983 Data Sources Policy and Technical Guidance ACRP 3-17 Capacity Airside/Airspace Capacity and Delay Factors ACRP 3-20 Delay NPIAS Order Update New AC -6 ~2012? NextGen Performance Factors 10

11. NextGen: Evolution of ATC Procedural Based Control Where we think the aircraft is Surveillance Based Control Where we know the aircraft is Past Trajectory Based Control Where we know the aircraft will be Today NextGen • Landmark Navigation • Radio Beacons • Position Reports • VOR/DME • RADAR • Performance Based Navigation • Precise Aircraft Position • 4DT Trajectory Based Operations

12. Mid-Term NextGen Surveillance and Navigation Improvements NextGen systems provide various benefits to airports of different sizes and missions

13. Today’s Runway Capacity Delays Optimum Capacity (VFR) Arrival + Departure Hourly Capacity Recovery Reduced Capacity (IFR) Time

14. NextGen Runway Capacity Reduced Separation? Maintain Capacity during Inclement Weather More precise merging and spacing Equivalent Visual Operations Optimum Capacity (VFR) Arrival + Departure Hourly Capacity Reduced Capacity (IFR) Time

15. Backup

16. NextGen is a system of systems that will provide benefits to different sizes of Airports General use at Airports Access & Surveillance Safety Capacity & Efficiency Design Flexibility Environment

17. NextGen and Airport Capacity Planning NextGen improvements to precisely separate aircraft and redesign airspace should help airports to better maintain optimum (visual) runway throughput during most inclement weather Several approaches to Closely Spaced Parallel Runway Operations (CSPO) that are enabled by ADS-B, RNAV/RNP, PRM-A, and new automation Increased use of dependent, staggered approaches can improve efficiency for runways spaced less than 2,500 feet apart using FAA Order 7110.308 criteria Revised blunder assumptions may lead to reductions in the runway separation needed for independent arrivals to as low as 3,000 feet with RNAV/RNP/LPV/GLS or ILS PRM-A may allow for independent arrivals to runways spaced as low as 2,500 feet In the long-term, ongoing research on paired or tandem approaches is aimed at further reducing runway spacing for simultaneous arrivals NAVAID critical areas on the airport surface may be substantially reduced if ground-based NAVAIDS are decommissioned in favor of LPV and GLS approaches Single Runway Parallel Runways GroundNAVAIDs As NextGen evolves, airport planning standards will be revised so that airports can integrate these factors into their long-term planning