EUROPE & ASIA Presentation Chapter 26 ENLARGEMENT (Ian Barnes and Pamela Barnes)

1. EUROPE & ASIAPresentation Chapter 26 ENLARGEMENT(Ian Barnes and Pamela Barnes) by Andi Demo

2. Presentation Plan • Introduction • Definition of Enlargement • Rationalist view • Constructivist view • History of Enlargement • The accession process • Membership criteria – Article 49 of TEU • The Copenhagen Criteria • Implementation mechanism • Conditionality framework • The Czech and Bulgarian cases • The impact of Enlargement • The prospective of Enlargement • Turkey, The Western Balkans and beyond… • Conclusion

3. Understanding Enlargement • Nominal - the increasing of the size of the Union by incorporation additional members • Alternative – the widening of EU influence beyond the borders of the member states and deepening relations within the organization • Unions’ rationale - maintain and spread liberal democratic ideals and the market economy principles • States’ rationale – changing domestic and political and economic circumstances (for the better)

4. Rationalist view • Assumption – EU in not autonomous in decision making but interacts with member states ; EU poses a driving sense of purpose • Enables the analyses of the self-interest of the actors concerned, which judge on a [financial] cost and benefit model • EU provides the legal authority and technical expertise • Fails to explain the reason why existing members would want to accept new members, with … • Justification for not engaging in non-enlargement : The potential of new members for undermining the coherence of the decision making process and other established economic and political realities.

5. Constructivist view • SHARED norm-and-values-driven enlargement between the EU, Member countries and candidate countries. • Potential countries will seek institutional ties because they identify with the aims and policies of the Union cases • Candidacy of Iceland – FAVORABLE • Candidacy of Turkey – CONTROVERSIAL • Enlargement of the CEE - PROBLEMATIC

6. HISTORY OF ENLARGEMENT http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/europe/04/enlarging_europe/html/eu_expansion.stm UPDATE - Croatia became the 28th member of the EU on 1 July, 2013 “practically completing the central European block accession” - Director-General of Enlargement at the European Commission, Stefano Sannino

7. The Accession Process • Initiated as an unsophisticated structure-less process • Starts with a successful Application • Improved and institutionalized via the Article 49 of TEU and the Copenhagen Criteria • Commission’s approval • Parliament’s support • Council’ unanimity • Ratification by parliament or referendum of the aspiring member • Ratification by individual member countries • Constantly changing on sui generis cases : Croatia, Western Balkans

8. Article 49 of TEU • The Union is founded on the principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms and rule of law • The Union shall respect fundamental rights, as guaranteed by the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms – Rome 1950 • The Union shall respect national identities of Member States • The Union shall provide itself with the means necessary to attain its objectives

9. Copenhagen Criteria - 1993 • Stable institutions guaranteeing democracy • The rule of law • Respect for human rights • Protection of minorities • Functioning market economy – capable to withstand competitive pressures • Ability to take and respect political, economic and monetary unionobligations

10. Implementation mechanisms • With increased membership it was necessary to adopt additional mechanism in order to insure smooth transitions of peripherical countries (Western Balkans) • Stabilization and Association Process (SAA) – road to membership through legislation modification, training of bureaucracy and harmonization • Safeguard clauses – Croatia border dispute with Slovenia • In the interim, it benefits from special arrangements, such as being able to comment on draft EU proposals, communications, recommendations or initiatives, and “active observer status” on EU bodies and agencies (it is entitled to speak, but not vote )

11. Conditionality framework • A tool to encourage and persuade candidate states to reform in line with the model of the EU • An instrument of power and influence towards candidates, albeit the most enthusiastic ones • On top of formal criteria, it exerts pressure and effectively causes structural domestic change • Carrots – funds in the short term • Sticks – delay and/or suspension of the process • Protects against enlargement fatigue

12. The Czech and Bulgarian cases 2008 Czech Republic official complaint from the Commission and the prospective of financial sanctions for failure to introduce a anti-discriminatory law 2008 Bulgaria 500 million Euros of withheld given-funds because of prior mismanagement, with the promise of restoration of funds if corrective actions were taken

13. The impact of Enlargement • Negative • A more culturally, linguistically diverse Union • Consensus, more difficult to achieve • Competition from cheap labor from new Members • Structural funds issue • Extra-pressure on CAP Positive • Increased global importance • Increased internal market • Widening of the euro zone • Convergence of living standards • Intensification of intra-relations

14. The prospective of Enlargement • In the words of Olli Rehn: “Enlargement does not continue at the pace of a shinkansen, but rather that of a local train...yet, being one of the EU’s most important security guarantees” Enlargement with continue , HOWEVER Despite the existing commitments, prospective candidates will faces increasingly complicated and rigorous requirements.

15. The European Continent

16. The Battle of Turkey • Special case • 1963 - Association Agreement : Custom Union, Freedom of Movement for Workers and Services • 1987 – Application for membership • 1999- Candidate Status • 2005- Accession negotiations started Lack of support and enthusiasm from EU citizens based on : • human rights records(Kurds, religious minorities) • Large population • Huge agricultural sector • MUSLIMS

17. Candidates - Western Balkans • Albania(formally applied for membership) • Broadly stable and enthusiastic; sporadic cases of corruption and organized crime , judiciary reforms • Bosnia and Herzegovina • Ethnic divisions • Montenegro (formally applied for membership) • Serbia • Historical baggage - ICTY • FYROM • Resolution of the name-controversy with Greece • Republic of Kosovo^(Resolution 1244/99 of UNSC) • Status

18. The unknown frontier

19. Potential Issues and Subjective view • Enlargement will continue with a slower path – a moment of consolidation, 5-10 years • Turkey’s entrance will be determined by the way EU will engineer itself globally :a global player (?)– Turkey will be Europe's military branch in the Middle East ( very unlikely given the conservative Christian club mindset ) • Serbia and Kosovo will be the last members of the EU, given the improbability on status agreement • EU enlargement will stop with Ukraine

20. Reactionary subjective views

21. Conclusion • The hope of EU membership is a major incentive for reform amongst prospective members • There is a large development and income gap between Western/Central and South Western countries • EUROSCEPTISM versus Enlargement • Imperative of inward looking consolidation policies • A more divers Europe will be more vibrant but more difficult to manage • Enlargement will stop with/at the moment of consolidation of a common vision and purpose • Federative Europe – it’s far!

22. …for your attention

23. Resources Chapter 26 – Nugent, Government and Politics of the EU, Palgrave, 7th Edition, 2010 Euro Barometer - http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.html http://www.iiea.com/events/the-future-of-eu-enlargement-policy#sthash.QdGcY4hn.dpuf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_European_Union http://snippits-and-slappits.blogspot.jp/2011/10/qaddafi-speaks-on-turkey-eu-and-bin.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/europe/04/enlarging_europe/html/eu_expansion.stm http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining/index_en.htm