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Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc.

Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models. Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc. That Trust Thing. Social Domain Interaction Language Trust. A Picture of Trust Related Concepts. Formal Network.

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Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc.

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  1. Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Informationwith Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc.

  2. That Trust Thing Social Domain Interaction Language Trust A Picture of Trust Related Concepts Formal Network Informal Network Cognitive Domain Knowledge Experience Beliefs Information Domain Data Input Physical Domain Computers Phones Tools

  3. Overview • Project Overview • Supplemental architecture • The baseline model • Demonstrate the Model • Strengths and weaknesses

  4. Project Goals • Automatically and continuously harvest open source information to support analysis • Automatically derive and generate event data for structured models • Explore the utility of Bayesian Networks to identify instability / early warning

  5. Information Processing Architecture High Resolution Data Stream Parsing Documents Open Source All Source DB Linguistic Processor KB Rule Development DB Extract / Transform

  6. Linguistic Processor Refines Data Event classification Textual data of interest

  7. Baseline (Time 0) Bayes Net Model is currently initialized using nominal data Illustrative Value Only Instability indicators derived from: Scarborough, Grace.  “Forecasting Political Instability in a Three-Year Period.”

  8. Instability Assessment Process Overview Bayesian Inference Model Parsing Documents Open Source All Source DB Linguistic Processor KB Rule Development DB Extract / Transform

  9. Create Input Data for Bayes Network

  10. Model Result at Time 1 Changes Probability of Instability

  11. Sample Results Over Time Alert Desk Officer

  12. Conclusions and Future Research • Conclusions • Appears to effectively “trigger” areas of interest • Provides consistent and traceable results (Audit Trail) • Early indications of system scalability (Large Quantities of Data, Many Countries / Regions) • Scoped to information sources • Future Research • Larger data set • Adjudication of information quality (veracity, sensitivity, bias) • Instantiating Immature Theory

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