Making sense of the MDGs

1. Making sense of the MDGs

2. Millennium development goals • Poverty & hunger – 1/2 • Primary education –full • Gender equality –full • Child mortality –2/3 • Maternal health – 3/4 • HIV/Aids, malaria & TB • Environment • Global partnership

3. Why are MDGs that way ? U5MR 100 NER 34 2015

4. Two FAQs • Can we achieve them ? • Can we afford them ? Answers will depend on choice of indicators & level of aggregation

5. All indicators are imperfect but … Top-5 indicators • under-five mortality rate • underweight among children • net enrolment ratio in primary education • ratio of girls to boys in primary & secondary school • proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel 5 indicators that involve heavy transformation • proportion of population below $1 per day • proportion of population below a minimum level of dietary energy consumption • primary school completion rate • maternal mortality ratio • proportion of population with access to safe drinking water

6. Are we on track ? 2005 1990 2015

7. Was progress pro-poor ?

8. Storyline since 1990 • progress has continued • but more slowly than in ’70s & ’80s • much of it has by-passed the poor

9. 3 misunderstandings • Each & every country must achieve same numerical targets for the world to meet the MDGs • A standard set of interventions exists that is applicable to all countries • Foreign aid can deliver the MDG

10. 4 steps at country level • Tailor national targets to balance ambition with realism • Set intermediate targets for political accountability • Translate #2 into specific actions & reforms for next 2-3 years • Cost #3 to inform national budget & aid+debt negotiations

11. A new partnership from‘Money changing hands’towards‘Ideas changing minds’