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How many humans can our planet support?

How many humans can our planet support?. Earth’s population today = 6.56 billion. How many people will Earth hold in our lifetimes?. How does energy consumption relate to population growth?. 85% of world’s commercial energy today from coal, oil and gas. What is the primary source of CO 2

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How many humans can our planet support?

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  1. How many humans can our planet support?

  2. Earth’s population today = 6.56 billion How many people will Earth hold in our lifetimes?

  3. How does energy consumption relate to population growth?

  4. 85% of world’s commercial energy today from coal, oil and gas

  5. What is the primary source of CO2 today? Is this going to change?

  6. Historic world population and CO2 emissions Which is increasing at a faster rate today?

  7. How is atmospheric CO2 projected to change in our lifetimes? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 IS92a = “business as usual”

  8. How are human actions affecting our environment?

  9. Greenhouse gas concentrations in atmosphere Dome Concordia Ice Core CH4 CO2 N2O T Siegenthaler et al., 2005

  10. Without doubt human activities have changed atmospheric chemistry 280 ppmv in 1850 35% increase 275 ppbv in 1850 16% increase 1987 Montreal Protocol 730 ppbv in 1850 143% increase 0 pptv in 1850 550 pptv today CDIAC, 2006

  11. What are human-induced changes in atmospheric chemistry going to do to our environment?

  12. 1 2 3 Earth’s Climate Components 4

  13. Forcing Response 100’s of millions of yrs 40,000- 100,000 yrs 10,000s of yrs Decades to Centuries Hours to Weeks Hours to 10,000 yrs Hours to Centuries Days to 1,500 yrs Hours to Months ?????????

  14. Tectonics Climate (Ice sheets) Time

  15. Eruptions Climate (Ice sheets) Time Krakatoa, 1883 Pinatubo, 1991

  16. Forcing = Slow, Response = Big Forcing = Fast, Response = Small Time 1) If a forcing is slow relative to a response, the system can reach equilibrium 2) If a forcing is fast relative to a response, the system does not reach equilibrium

  17. How does human forcing act on the natural system ? Humans Climate Humans Climate

  18. What allows Earth to support life? EARTH, 14 C

  19. “Greenhouse Effect” EARTH, 14 C Earth’s own Greenhouse Effect is NATURAL and NECESSARY

  20. “Greenhouse Effect” EARTH, 14 C MATH PROBLEM: Earth’s Natural Greenhouse + Human Additions = Temperature Increase

  21. Northern Hemisphere temperature record The “Hockey Stick” of Global Mean Surface Temperature How accurately have we measured temperature? Mann et al., 1999

  22. Effects of natural forcing

  23. Natural Forcing + Human Forcing

  24. Natural Forcing + Human Forcing

  25. Natural Forcing + Human Forcing

  26. GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM Observed Temperature (1900-2000)

  27. GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM Observed Temperature …minus… Natural Warming tectonic orbital millenial solar

  28. GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM Observed Temperature …minus… Natural Warming …equals… Residual (Human Effects)

  29. GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM Observed Temperature …minus… Natural Warming …equals… Residual (Human Effects) …looks a lot like… Carbon Dioxide Increase

  30. Northern Hemisphere temperature record Most of this is caused by human activities What’s going to happen next? Mann et al., 1999

  31. How is temperature projected to change in our lifetimes? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 IS92a = “business as usual”

  32. What are the impacts of human-induced temperature rise?

  33. How is sea level projected to change in our lifetimes? IPCC projection includes only thermal expansion of seawater What’s missing?

  34. Antarctica/Greenland = 10% of Earth’s surface 95% of Earth’s ice What happens when this melts?

  35. Honolulu?

  36. Effect of sea level rise on Bangladesh Bangladesh

  37. Where is 1m of sea level rise?

  38. Where is most of Waikiki?

  39. IPCC, 2001

  40. How many Iniki’s can our islands handle? $2.6 billion

  41. Are human effects on the environment going to last? Humans A Problem Climate Humans Less of a Problem Climate

  42. Lag time of climate components Is this realistic? IPCC, 2001

  43. What is the trend in atmospheric CO2? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 IS92a = “business as usual”

  44. Are human effects on the environment going to last? Humans Human timescale (YES) Climate Humans Geologic timescale (NO) Climate

  45. Human/Climate Analogy What happens when you put a frog in a pot of boiling water? What happens when you put a frog in cold water then bring it to a boil?

  46. What is the effect of “Peak Oil” going to be on our world?

  47. Is oil consumption projected to decrease?

  48. Who owns the oil? 12x 5x 3x 3 year supply

  49. Iraq Why is Hawaii particularly at risk in scenarios like this? Chechnya Kuwait

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