Central ScorePP Database (CDB) and the Decision Support System (DSS)

1. Central ScorePP Database (CDB) andthe Decision Support System (DSS) Matej Cerk, University of Ljubljana ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

2. WPs: 9.3; 6.2; 6.3; 6.4; 6.5…8.1; 8.5 Matej Cerk, University of Ljubljana ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

3. Measures and control strategies to reduce emissions of PPs Responses (Impacts) Driving Forces Exceedance of the EQS for PPs in the surface water Industry Households Infrastructure (roads, railroads … DSS PPs in the receiving waters Emissions of PP to the environment State - WFD Pressures DPSIR framework of SCOREPP ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

4. Central Database (CDB) structure • MODULES ARE LINKED • QUERIES BETWEEN MODULES • PP module • inherent properties • ES module • compiled literature • classified to types • GIS module • geographical data of a catchment • additional data (AM) ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

5. DRIVERS, PRESSURES DRIVERS, PRESSURES GIS module:Visualization of sources • ES + GIS data + AM  maps of sources • ES 1715: Mercury emissions from dental clinics • 0,27g per dentist per day if there is no amalgam separation • 5% of that value with amalgam separation • GIS data: locations of all dentist clinics • AM: no. of employed dentists • When AM is quantitative  visualization of amounts • When AM is qualitative  visualization of potential sources ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

6. DRIVERS, PRESSURES Visualization example:TBT emissions ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

7. RESPONSES RESPONSES Emission Barriers (EB) module Includes: • Treatment options • Treatment efficiencies • Costs of treatment options • Substitution options • Linked to the ES module EB example: 43 - Use of amalgam separator in dental clinics Substitution example 90 – Use of ceramic fillings instead of amalgam fillings Some other EB examples: Settling, filtration, christalization, … ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

8. RESPONSES RESPONSES Source Control Measures module • Legislation compiled into database (currently EU diretives) • “New legislationwas/is applied by the federal government in the AREA of EUon the activitieswhich use TBTas plastic stabilizer, requesting substitution of the TBT with the substance XY by 2020. As a consequence the activities which use TBT as plastic stabilizer will incur investment costs of 400 EURper annual produced ton of plastics. Producers of the TBT will seize the production affecting them with the necessary change of the production facilities. Non-compliance penalties are xxx EUR, enforced by the INSTITUTION” • SCM for dentists no 83 : obligatory amalgam sep. Council Directive 91/689/EEC of 12 December 1991 on hazardous waste ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

9. RESPONSES RESPONSES Economics module • Clustering of the ES, EB, SCM per economic sector • Comparison between different EU member states ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

10. RESPONSES STATE Mathematical modelling module • Integrates mathematical models into database • Models simulate the concentrations in river (after WWTP) • Possibility of Emission Barrier (EB) application ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

11. RESPONSES STATE Monitoring module • Visualization of monitoring points and results • Comparison with modelled results ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

12. Decision Support System concept ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

13. Organizational perspective Technical perspective dialectics Machiavelli, SunTszu SunTszu (Theartofwar) Data model systemanalysis decisiontrees C/B analysis ORGANIZATIONAL GROUPS TECHNOLOGY INDIVIDUALS Maslow hierarchy of needs indiv. Perception indiv. Reality intuition Personal perspective DSSMultiperspective approach ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

14. Decision is a Source Control Measure • Combination of SCM is Emission Control Strategy. • Different combinations of SCM are possible scenarios. • Multidimensional clustering of Emission Strings, Emission Barriers and Source Control Measures are essential for development of Emission Control Strategy • (by CAS, by 60 sectors of economy, by emission types, by emission control mesures, etc. ) CONCLUSION: • Difficult integration of legislation into SCM, as it is not adopted to the concept of ES and EB • US Source Classification Codes ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

15. The presentation continues by Primož Banovec ScorePP Dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

16. Macroeconomic evaluation ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

17. Macroeconomics: • Macro economics is the study of behavior of the economy as a whole. It examines the overall level of nations output, employment, price and foreign trade. • It tells us how million of consumers and producers in an economy take decision about the allocation of productive recourses and million of goods and services. As for the practical importance Micro economics in the formulation of economics policies calculate to promote efficiency in production and welfare of the masses. • Tree and the fores issue: microeconomist might study the systems that make an individual tree function efficiently, providing it with the sustanence it needs to thrive in the forest. A macroeconomist, however, will take a broader look at the forest as a whole, and observe how the thousands of trees work together in conjunction with the sun, the soil, the oxygen, nitrogen, and H2O in the environment that make the entire forest function efficiently as one giant organism. ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

18. Macroeconomics introduction: • Aggregated supply of goods and services that are related to the emissions of priority pollutants – supply related mainly to the production of goods and services by different activities (NACE classification in the Emission Strings) and output of different sectors. • Aggregated demand of goods and services that are related to the emissions of priority pollutants Demand – as function of sector demand and household demand • Imports and exports as border condition to aggregaated supply and demand ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

19. Macroeconomic approach applied: • From basic statistical data on from the System of National Accounts indicating production and consumption, to • Sectorial supply and demand data, to • Input – output tables, to • Leontief matrix, to • Computable general equilibrium model CGE • The CGE is in the field of pollution management focused on the management of externalities, but externalities in the field of water pollution are closely related to impacts and economic evaluation of impacts for this domain is not studied on the suffucent level to include it into macroeconomic evaluation. Also environmental (pollution) markets is not well defined and elasticity of supply/demand of those as well. ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

20. Circulation in macroeconomics ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

21. Circulations in macroeconomicsregardingemissions ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

22. Macroeconomics – Slovenia – household consumption: ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010 Macroeconomics – Slovenia – household consumption: Household behaviour is not monitoring the level of environmental behaviour of household demand – behavour could be monitored partially on the supply side (yet too aggregated)

23. Macroeconomics - Slovenia: • From basic statistical data on from the System of National Accounts indicating productin and consumption, to • Adapted from previous 20 sectorial model to more complex 60 sectorial model, some adaptation rules of ES to the 60 sectorial model • Some emission strings multiplied in order to provide resolution • Emission strings “natural background” • Firm category of ES defined as households defined which is based upon the household aggregated demand function. • Sectorial supply and demand data, to • Input – output tables, to • Leontief matrix, to ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

24. Macroeconomics – Slovenia – ES to 60 sectorial model Some examples of ME analysis refer to 100 sectorial model. Useful – they expand sector 24 and 60, but less standardized. Sectors and ES types identifiable, sector material statistics shall be expanded. ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

25. No. of emission strings per sector – relationship model ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

26. Identified source control measures per sector ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

27. Substitution options per sector ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

28. Substitution options per sector ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

29. No. of emission barriers per sector ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010 Some emission barriers are related to ES Types i.e. BMP-s

30. Sector/emission strings/barriers/substitution analysis (part) ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

31. Slovenia – supply ME analysis to ES (mio. EUR, 2008) ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

32. Prioritizing sectors for I/O analysis ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010 • Selection on the basis of top sectors regarding • Production • Employment • Added value • Emission strings related

33. Normalized I/O table – Leontief matrix for construction sector – buy from (input) ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

34. Normalized I/O table – Leontief matrix for construction sector – sell to (output) ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

35. Macroeconomics – Slovenia Input – output tables, conclusions • As anticipated – the economies are complex interrelated system, sectors are not only related to specific emission strings, but are interdependent, using on the supply side – with potentially long supply interdependencies. • The emission barriers applied are identified as emission control measures, emission barriers yet applicable are identifiable, their direct effects should be evaluated on the level of microeconomic C/B analysis; • Cross-sectorial effect could be identified via macroeconomic analysis presented. ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

36. Macroeconomics – From Slovenia to EU: • Same analysis provided also for some other EU countries • Country specifics could be recognized ScorePP dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

37. Normalized supply matrix by country and sector - national importance of sectors (and related PP emissions (‰) Scorepp dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

38. Conclusions: • We can see the tree and the forest of the domain of PP management and abatment, • Zoomable analysis – from the identification of sectors and intersectorial comparation, to micro analysis of individual pollultion source and again back to sectors, • Work on the evaluation of externalities induced by the PPs • Framework for the PP sattelite accounts is established – with these sattelite accounts it could be possible to evaluate the role of PP emissions on the national economies and follow its development through time • Multidimensional sectorial analysis and impacts on national economies evluated • Adaptation of ES concept on different levels of governance (comparable to US EPA – Source Control Codes). Scorepp dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010

39. Thank you. Questions are welcomed. What is your perspective? ScorePP Dissemination meeting, Copenhagen, Feb. 2010