The Perils of Prognostication: U.S. Employment and Hiring Trends

1. The Perils of Prognostication:U.S. Employment and Hiring Trends Manny Contomanolis, PhD Rochester Institute of Technology National Association of Colleges and Employers emoce@rit.edu

2. So what shall we talk about? • What are current employment demands? • What are students looking for and thinking about in careers and employment? • What are employers looking for in college-educated candidates?

3. Why is this timely? • The value of a college education is more prized and more questioned than ever before. • The economic stakes are significant • The “disconnect” between education and the real-world.

4. A “disconnect”? • Pew Charitable Trust Study - 2006 • 50% of college graduates lacking critical life skills: analyzing news stories and prose; understanding documents; math skills needed for balancing a checkbook or evaluating credit card offers • American Institute for Research (AIR) • More than half of 4-year college students nearing graduation lack these same skills • This is true for 75% of those at community colleges

5. Education really pays off… • Median annual salary for high school graduates: $29,800 • Some college but no degree: $35,505 • Associate Degree holders: $36,784 • Bachelor’s Degree holders: $48,896 • Master’s Degree holders: $56,494 • Doctorate Degree holders: $77,216 • Professional Degree holders: $85,921

6. Education really pays off… • Current unemployment rate for the workforce overall: 4.5% • Current unemployment rate for those with a college degree: 1.9%

7. What workforce trends are we seeing? • Shifting population patterns • Slower overall growth in U.S. population • Increase in 16 – 24 age group • Decline in 35 – 44 age group • Increase in 55 – 64 age group • Increase in immigrants and minorities

8. What workforce trends are we seeing? • Shifting labor force patterns • 17.4 million more workers – a 12% increase • Greater diversity: Hispanic, African-American, and Asian groups showing the greatest percentage growth. More Hispanics will be in the work force than any other minority. • Growth of female workers greater than male: 52.5% male and 47.5% female

9. What other forces are at work? • Economic conditions and the resulting labor market – technology is the driver • Shifting regional patterns of growth • Global markets and competition • Off-shoring of manufacturing and services • Outsourcing of staffing • Changing nature of work – part-time; flexible work hours, work places and work styles; benefit changes • Retirements and an aging U.S. workforce

10. What other forces are at work? • Workers between the ages of 18 and 40 will change jobs an average of 10.5 times over the course of their lifetime – Bureau of Labor Statistics • In a survey of 2,000 corporate employees, half would work an extra hour a day if they had a better work environment – Gensler, Inc., 2007 • Graduating students at the top law schools are asking all law firms to adopt “saner” work environments: balanced hours policies and a reduction in billable hours expectations – Wall Street Journal, 4/4/07. • More than 2,100 universities now teach entrepreneurship, up from 400 in the early 1990’s – BusinessWeek, 2/07

11. Top 10 – Fastest Growing Jobs U.S. BLS Data • Medical Assistants • Network Systems Analysts • Physician Assistants • Social and Human Service Assistants • Home Health Aides • Medical Record/Health InfoTechnicians • Physical Therapist Aides • Software Engineers – applications • Software Engineers – systems software • Physical Therapist Assistants

12. Top 5 Jobs – Bachelors Degree Holders – BLS Data • Elementary School Teachers • Accountants and Auditors • Computer System Analysts • Secondary School Teachers • Computer Software Engineers - applications

13. Top 5 Jobs – Masters Degree Holders – BLS Data • Physical Therapists • Rehabilitation Counselors • Educational, Vocational, and School Counselors • Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers • Market Research Analysts

14. Top 5 Jobs – Doctoral Degree Holders – BLS Data • Postsecondary Teachers • Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists • Medical Scientists • Computer and Information Scientists – research • Biochemists and Biophysicists

15. Top 5 Jobs – First Professional Degree Holders – BLS Data • Lawyers • Physicians and Surgeons • Pharmacists • Clergy • Veterinarians

16. Top Degrees in Demand – Bachelor Level NACE 2008 Data • Accounting • Mechanical Engineering • Electrical Engineering • Computer Science • Business Administration/Management • Economics/Finance • Information Sciences and Systems • Marketing/Marketing Management • Computer Engineering • Management Information Systems/Business Data Processing

17. Top Degrees in Demand – Master’s Level NACE 2008 Data • MBA • Electrical Engineering • Mechanical Engineering • Computer Science • Accounting

18. Top Degrees in Demand – Doctorate Level NACE 2008 Data • Computer Engineering • Electrical Engineering • Computer Science • Mechanical Engineering • Business Administration/Management

19. Get Ahead Careers for 2007USNews.com • Actuary - $75,062 • Engineer - $72,156 • Medical Scientist - $88,344 • School Psychologist - $$63,029 • Systems Analyst - $70,438 • Urban/Regional Planner - $38,465 • Audiologist - $62,112 • Dentist - $120,864 • Occupational Therapist - $60,855

20. Get Ahead Careers for 2007USNews.com • Optometrist - $98,458 • Pharmacist - $98,828 • Physician - $151,159 • Physician Assistant - $77,863 • Registered Nurse - $59,046 • Speech Language Therapist - $58,475 • Architect - $46,840 • Clergy - $78,690 • Editor - $52,443

21. Get Ahead Careers for 2007USNews.com • Fundraiser - $78,902 • Higher Ed. Administrator - $109,557 • Landscape Architect - $49,974 • Librarian - $49,708 • Management Consultant - $96,245 • Politician (elected) – Salary N/A • Professor - $73,666

22. Jobs that will disappear…Forbes.com 2006 • Call Center Representatives • Construction Workers • Encyclopedia Writers • Music Store Managers • Fighter Pilot

23. Jobs that will disappear…Forbes.com 2006 • Film Processor • Grocery Store Cashier • Miners • Oil Wildcatters • Union Organizers

24. New jobsForbes.com 2006 • Animal Guardians • Dirigible Pilots • Drowned City Specialists • Gene Screener • Hollywood Holographers

25. New jobsForbes.com 2006 • Hydrogen Fuel Station Managers • Quarantine Enforcers • Robot Mechanic • Space Tour Guide • Teleport Specialist

26. Forever JobsForbes.com 2006 • Artist • Barber • Criminal • Mortician • Parent

27. Forever JobsForbes.com 2006 • Politician • Prostitute • Religious Leader • Soldier • Tax Collector

28. How do students fit in? • “Generational” Research • Young workers of today… • Lifestyle - not work - comes first • Loyal to their skills not their employer • Individual first – forget the chain of command • Must have a mission/purpose to their work • Work alone or in small groups

29. What motivates young people? • Time off rather than money • Mentoring and coaching • Boredom avoidance – rapid change if things do get boring • Meeting their own goals • Constant skills training/improvement and upward learning curve

30. What are students looking for?Universumusa.com • Work/life balance (46%) • Clear advancement path (39%) • Geographic location (36%) • Organizational culture (31%) • Challenging role (29%) • Compensation package (28%) • Prestige/organizational image (20%) • Workforce diversity (8%) • Exposure to senior leadership (8%) • International relocation opportunities (4%)

31. Goals to be attained in the first three years… • Work/life balance (54%) • Pursue further education (45%) • Build sound financial base (41%) • Work on increasingly challenging tasks (34%) • Work internationally (25%)

32. What are Employers Looking for?2008 NACE Job Trends Survey • Communication skills (4.6) • Strong work ethic (4.6) • Teamwork skills (4.5) • Initiative (4.4) • Interpersonal skills (4.4) • Problem-solving skills (4.4) • Analytical skills (4.3) • Flexibility/adaptability (4.2) • Computing skills (4.1) • Technical skills (4.1) • Detail oriented (4.0)

33. What are Employers Looking for?2008 NACE Job Trends Survey • Leadership skills (3.9) • Self-confidence (3.9) • Friendly/outgoing personality (3.8) • Tactfulness (3.8) • Creativity (3.6) • Strategic planning skills (3.3) • Entrepreneurial skills/risk-taker (3.2) • Sense of humor (3.1)

34. Employer Hiring Preferences Relative to Experience • I prefer candidates with relevant work experience (76.2%) • I prefer to hire candidates with any type of work experience (18.2%) • Work experience doesn’t typically factor into my decision when hiring a new college graduate (4.8%) • Other (0.7%)

35. How do Employers Choose Between Two Equal Candidates? • Has held leadership position (4.0) • Major (4.0) • Higher GPA – 3.0 or above (3.7) • Extracurricular activities (3.7) • Volunteer work (3.2) • School attended (3.0)

36. Emerging Critical Skill SetManny.com • Communication – written and oral • Teamwork – especially across different groups and individual backgrounds • Flexibility and adaptability • Ability to learn knew things and do so quickly • Focused and intense effort • Client/customer/mission orientation

37. Challenges Facing Employers in the U.S. • Intense war for the “best” talent complicated by notable shortages. • A changing talent pool with different expectations and motivational needs. • Increasing reliance on “electronic recruiting” strategies and applications. • Advancing/promoting company “brand”.

38. QUESTIONS? If you would like a copy of this presentation please e-mail me at: emcoce@rit.edu