The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

1. Law and the Future The Role of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) in Law The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)

2. Law and the Future: The Role of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) in Law LAW FTA

3. Main Arguments and Proposals • The reactive nature of Law can no longer account for the technological acceleration that is shaping the globalized society of the 21st century • A new methodological approach to Law is needed: the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to Law

4. Overview • Law and the Future • FTA • Law and FTA • Implementation of specific FTA tools and methods to Law Legal Research Legislative Drafting Law Enforcement • Problems and Future Research • Conclusions

5. Law and the Future • Law: deeply embedded reactive nature • Resistant to change and transformation • Works according to parameters and values of legal security and certainty

6. Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) • From natural to technical • Fromdeterministic to unsettled • (andthus to bebuiltupon) • TechnicalandTerminologicalComplexity

7. Law and FTA • FTA CommunityandLiterature - doublemerit: • ClarificationandArticulationbetweenthedifferentmethods, toolsandapproaches 2. CreationofitsownIdentity, devisingsetof FTA principlesthat define its fundamental characteristics

8. Law and FTA: Principles • The adequacy and usefulness of applying FTA to Law can be asserted by reading its guiding principles and framing them in a legal perspective • (Keenan and Popper, 2007) • Principle of Future-Orientation, Principle of Action-Orientation (legally speaking: mind shift, legislators as constructors of the future and not merely regulators of the present…) • Principle of participation, multidisciplinarity and coordination (legally speaking: Law as multidisciplinary, open and participative)

9. Law and FTA: Procedures • FTA: ‘multi-dimensional activities’. Rader and Porter (2008): FTA studies typology • Suchtypologycould serve as valuablecriteria for structuringandplanningFTA-oriented legal activities

10. Implementation and Use of FTA tools and approaches to Law • Legal Research • Legislative Drafting • Law Enforcement

11. Legal Research • Scenario-Construction and Law of the Future Project (LOFT)

12. Legislative Drafting • Modelling and the FuturICT Project

13. Law Enforcement • Data Analysis and Predictive Policing

14. Problems and Future Research • Measurement and Assessment of FTA-based Laws • FTA Limitations and Weak Points will be passed on to Law • Problem of Legitimacy • Future work: ethical and legal implications of rendering Law future-oriented

15. Conclusions • Rather than today's primarily `reactive' work, according to which law responds to observed economic trends and already-occurred societal events, the paper demonstrates that Law will need to focus on proactive, future-oriented analysis and techniques • The paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing the uncertainty and addressing the challenges that law needs to cope with in terms of legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement • The application of FTA to Law increases the latter’s awareness of the possible future developments that will guide society, rendering it also more creative and transformative.

16. The idea of future is more fecund than future itself Henri Bergson Thank you!