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Trend and Variability of East-Asian Precipitation: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

Trend and Variability of East-Asian Precipitation: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures. Fanglin Yang Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA 32 nd Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop COAPS/FSU, October 22-27, 2007

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Trend and Variability of East-Asian Precipitation: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

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  1. Trend and Variability of East-Asian Precipitation: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures Fanglin Yang Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA 32nd Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop COAPS/FSU, October 22-27, 2007 Acknowledgment: This work was support by the NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program while the author worked with William Lau at GFSC/NASA.

  2. Possible causes: • South Asian black carbon emission • Climate regime shift • Global warming • Shift of Africa-North China teleconncection • SST trend

  3. North China Central China South China

  4. Questions? • To what extent can the observed precipitation variability can be explained by SST variability? • Does the precip-SST relation at the interannual timescale differ from that at the inter-decadal timescale?

  5. Interannual Variability Single Value Decomposition (SVD) applied to 7-year high-pass filtered precipitation and SSTs

  6. MAM SST Precip

  7. JJA SST Precip

  8. SST Variance Precipitation Variance SST-Precipitation Co-Variance Correlation (PC_sst, PC_precip) MAM SVD 1 31% 27% 27% 0.57 SVD 2 11% 15% 14% 0.64 JJA SVD 1 43% 10% 24% – 0.77 SVD 2 7% 17% 13% 0.76

  9. JJA, Regressions of wind850 and Z700 to PCs SVD Modes JJA Climate, 1951-1998, NCEP R1 SST_PC Precip_PC

  10. MAM SST_PC Precip_PC

  11. Decadal Variation and Trend

  12. SST Interannual Mode

  13. Area-Mean Rainfall Projection of Obs to SVD mode Rainfall Interannual Mode

  14. Interannual Variability Precipitation over South China in MAM and North China in JJA  ENSO mode of SSTs Precipitation over central China in both MAM and JJA season  SST in warm pool and northern Indian ocean; Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-hPa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. Trend and decadal variation Upward South China MAM precipitation and downward JJA North China precipitation  warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. Upward JJA central China precipitation  warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Downward MAM South China precipitation  downward central North Pacific SSTs (less robust) Conclusion

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