Prepared by: Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch Office of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance

1. Population Estimates, 2006-2009, and Projections, 2010-2036, for Local Health Integration Networks(LHINs) Prepared by: Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch Office of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance Updated to latest data and projections, June 2010

2. Map of Local Health Integration Networks • Erie St. Clair • South West • Waterloo Wellington • Hamilton Niagara Haldimand Brant • Central West • Mississauga Halton • Toronto Central • Central • Central East • South East • Champlain • North Simcoe Muskoka • North-East • North-West Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

3. Background For further information, please contact Paul Lewis (416-325-0821) Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

4. LHINs and Their Boundaries • LHINs are local health organizations designed to plan, integrate and fund local health services – including hospitals, community care access centres, home care, long-term care, mental health, community health centres as well as addiction and community support services – within a specific geographic area. • There are 14 LHINs in Ontario. • They are composed of Dissemination Areas (DAs). • The population projections by Ontario Ministry of Finance provide projected population at the CD level. However, except for a few cases, boundaries of LHINs do not conform to those of CDs or Census Subdivisions (CSDs), for which demographic data are annually compiled and updated by Statistics Canada (STC). • The method used to project population for a specific LHIN therefore depends on whether/how its boundary splits CD(s). Several methods are used as described in the following slides. Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

5. LHIN Population Projection Methodology: Dealing with Boundary Issues The population projection for LHIN is based on the population projection at the Census Division level. Thus a main issue is how to distribute population and its growth for cases where a LHIN’s boundary splits a CD. Depending on whether/how a LHIN’s boundary splits CDs and/or CSDs, different methods are used to distribute population and its growth to those splits. Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

6. Determining a LHIN’s Population when Its Boundary Does Not Split Any CD If the LHIN consists of whole (intact) CDs, MOF’s CD-level projections for each CD are aggregated. This method applies to only one LHIN: Erie St. Clair LHIN. MOF’s CD-level projections Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

7. Determining a LHIN’s Population when Its Boundary Splits CD(s) – Method 1 If the LHIN does not include any part of Toronto, York and Peeland its boundary splits CDs but not CSDs, the share-of-growth method is used. This method applies to 4 LHINs: Champlain, South East, North-East, and North-West LHINs. Next slide gives a calculation illustration of this method. MOF CD-level projections Share-of-growth method (see next slide) MOF CD-level projections Share-of-growth method Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

8. Share-of-Growth Method The CSD’s share of population “change” out of the total CD’s population change is held constant. Historical share of population growth is held constant over the projection period. Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

9. Determining a LHIN’s Population when Its Boundary Splits CD(s) – Method 2 If the LHIN boundary splits CSDs (as well as CDs) in Toronto, York and Peel, the share-of-growth method is used based on the growth of DAs during 2001-2006. (DA-level data available only for census years.) Because significantly uneven growth within CSD is likely for these CDs, the share-of-growth method is used instead of the constant-share method (see next slide). This method applies to 4 LHINs: Central West, Mississauga Halton, Toronto Central, and Central East LHINs. MOF CD-level projections Share-of-growth method based on 2001-2006 DA growth Share-of-growth method based on 2001-2009 CSD growth Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

10. Determining a LHIN’s Population When Its Boundary Splits CD(s) – Method 3 If the LHIN boundary splits CSDs (as well as CDs) in CDs other than Toronto, York and Peel, the constant-share method is used. This method is based on the share of population of each CSD split in 2006 which are obtained by the 2006 DA-level data, see next slide for a calculation illustration. This method applies to 5 LHINs: South West, Waterloo-Wellington, Hamilton Niagara Haldimand Brant, Central, and North Simcoe Muskoka. MOF CD-level projections Share-of-growth method based on 2001-2009 CSD growth Constant-share method based on 2006 population share derived from 2006 DA-level data 5.7% of West Grey CSD (share derived from 2006 DA-level data) Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

11. Constant-Share Method The share of a split-CSD’s population belonging to a LHIN is held constant over the projection period based on the 2006 population share of the DA’s within the LHIN’s boundary. Historical share is held constant over the projection period. Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

12. LHIN Population Projection Methodology: Dealing the Age-Sex Structure Projection of age-sex structure (CSDs and split CSDs) • Start with the age-sex structure of CSD population in 2008 (base population) • Apply the cohort-components method to this base population using mortality, fertility and net-migration assumptions at the CD level. (It is not possible to set assumptions at the CSD level due to the absence of components estimates for this level.) • Adjust the results through iterative prorating so that the sum of age-sex categories and the sum of population of all CSDs within the CD simultaneously agree with the marginal totals for the CD. • Repeat the cohort-components projection and iterative prorating process until 2036. • For 2006-2009, use age-sex structure of CSDs estimated by STC. • Assume all split CSDs to have the same age-sex structure as that of the CSD. Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

13. LHIN Population Projection Methodology: Dealing the Age-Sex Structure (continued) An example illustrating the 3rd step (i.e., iterative prorating) in the previous slide: Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

14. LHIN Population Projection Methodology:Consistency of Estimates and Projections In order to have a smooth transition between estimates and projections, MOF provides population estimates for 2006-2009, using MOF’s methodology for estimating the population of LHINs, along with the projections for 2010-2036. Ministry of Finance, Office of Economic Policy, Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch