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World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035

World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035. William J Cosgrove & Gilberto Gallopin Chicago 17 July 2009. Overview. World Water Vision Scenarios 2000-2025 Why new scenarios? Proposed new scenarios Questions, suggestions and expressions of interest in participating.

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World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035

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  1. World Water Scenarios 2012 – 2035 William J Cosgrove & Gilberto Gallopin Chicago 17 July 2009

  2. Overview • World Water Vision Scenarios 2000-2025 • Why new scenarios? • Proposed new scenarios • Questions, suggestions and expressions • of interest in participating

  3. World Water Scenarios 2000-2025

  4. How? • Scenario Development Panel • Drivers: demographics; economic; technological; social; governance; environmental • Focus Groups on Drivers - energy • - information and communications • - biotechnology • - institutions, society and economy • Models

  5. core elements in the Vision approach • participatory approach with extensive consultation: open and transparent process; stakeholders stimulated to contribute to the Vision and make it their own. • “out-of-the-box” thinking: emphasis on getting people to think beyond the boundaries of their normal frame of reference – stimulated through qualitative global scenarios to kick off consultations. • global analysis to assure integration and co-ordination: scenarios and subsequent simulation modeling to provide a coherent basis for the global vision. • Emphasis oncommunication: information available not just for the project team but for many outside it through as many channels as possible.

  6. Resulting in • Increasing the consistency and “feasibility check” on the scenarios • Providing higher credibility through the intersection of different independent approaches • Providing quantitative estimates of some thresholds and requirements

  7. Current situation • Critical dimensions • Driving forces • Strategic invariants (predetermined elements) • Critical uncertainties • Plots (logics of the scenarios) • Image of the future Anatomy of scenarios

  8. Outcomes: • Scenarios: • Business-as-Usual • Technology, Economics and Private Sector • Values and Lifestyles • World Water Vision (backcast)

  9. Why new scenarios?Real Time Delphi Exercise November 2007 • Analyses based on the results of the IPCC scenarios will be • useful in WWDR3. • Further scenario development based on the IPCC scenarios • seems warranted. • New scenarios should not be started from scratch but • include new drivers that have now become apparent. • Revisions to the World Water Vision scenarios should be • based on new information available. • A (Real Time?) Delphi process may be useful in developing • these new scenarios, but • Scientific and empirical observations should be used as • the starting point.

  10. Drivers in WWDR3: • Demographic, economic and social • Technological • Policies, laws and finance • Climate change • Possible futures

  11. Opening the “water box”

  12. Survey of 200 Decision-Makers May 2009 Encouraged, often with restrictions, cautions regarding resources required & avoiding duplication

  13. Proposed new scenarios Output: a set of qualitative scenarios characterized by narratives and causal diagrams unfolding in time, combined, for those aspects amenable to mathematical formalization, with quantitative scenarios characterized by simulation models. Approach: a continuous iteration between the building of the qualitative scenarios and the simulation models, engaging experts and stakeholders in the scenario-building exercise and encouraging communication and dialogue between these different actors.

  14. Global Scenarios • In-depth discussion of the existing scenarios, • followed by the development of qualitative • “storylines” by a group of stakeholders and experts: • understandable and transparent basis for understanding scenario assumptions • attractive method for communicating the substance of the scenarios to non-technical people • distill the combined views of the stakeholders and experts

  15. Global Scenarios In parallel, modelers produce quantitative scenarios which provide numerical data, and make possible a consistency check of the storylines.

  16. Scenarios at national and sub-national scales Scenario construction process and scenario findings more directly connected to concrete actors and decision-makers. Global scenarios give general direction and provide perspective and a set of functional constraints for the national and sub-national scenarios. More local scenarios provide flesh and specificity to exercise and demonstrate the diversity of situations involved in water issues.

  17. Products: • set of qualitative and quantitative scenarios and • their documentation; • document discussing the main strategic • implications of the global scenarios, the • identified critical nodes for action, and the • insights obtained from the scenario exercise; • set of local water scenarios; • tool-box for local scenario-building; and • improvement in the scenario-building capacity of • local groups.

  18. Your questions? Suggestions re the approach? Are you interested in participating - at the global level? - at the local level?

  19. Thank you!

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