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This panel discussion delves into the shifting dynamics of the cable, DBS, telco, and broadband markets. Industry experts Matt Stump (One Touch Intelligence), Scott Boomer (Eagle Communications), and Kyle Alcorn (New Wave Communications) assess growth strategies and challenges facing DBS and telco providers. Key points include the impact of exclusive sports packages, HD offerings, and the critical importance of bundling services alongside broadband and wireless solutions. The session also highlights current statistics on video and broadband growth, illustrating market trends and competitive positioning.
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Take-Aways:Competitive Action • Just what is the competition up to? Panelists: • Matt Stump, One Touch Intelligence • Scott Boomer, Eagle Communications • Kyle Alcorn, New Wave Communications
Communications Landscape Shifting sands across cable, DBS, telco and broadband
DBS Growth Strategies • HD (DirecTV 100-150 channels) • DVR (EchoStar’s DVR marketing) • Exclusive sports packages (MLB Extra Innings, Sunday Ticket) • Pricing strategies (DirecTV as premium provider; DISH as low-cost provider)
DBS Challenges • Relies on telco partners for broadband, voice and wireless bundles • Telco partners in bundle are increasingly DBS’s video competitor • VOD lacks cable’s breadth and depth • Lacks local content, community roots
RBOC Growth Strategies • Wireline video expansion (FiOS, U-verse) • Broadband speeds (FiOS) • Wireless broadband expansion (data revenues, video) • Quad play bundle with wireless • Cross-platform integration
RBOC Telco Challenges • Stemming access line losses • Third to market in video • Technical challenges with U-verse (scaling, speeds, capacity, service reliability, customer service) • Increasing financial questions regarding cost to support video services • VoIP’s better economics • DSL’s technical limitations • New SMB competitors
Video/Data Net Adds • Video 2006 2005 • Cable 207,756 (136,807) • DBS 1,885,000 2,328,000 • Telcos 192,000 0 • Total 2,284,756 2,191,193 • Broadband 2006 2005 • Cable 3,754,959 3,330,493 • Telcos 5,004,000 5,186,000 • Total 8,758,959 8,516,493 * Does not include Cox or Brighthouse
DTV HD Channel Lineup • Today (12): Discovery, ESPN, ESPN2, HDNet, HDNet Movies, HGTV, NGC, TNT, Universal, HBO, Showtime, NFL • Sept. (25): A&E, Food, Versus/Golf, TMC, Animal Planet, Discovery, History, TLC, Science, Starz (5), Weather, HBO (7), Cinemax (3). • 2008 (18): ABC Family, Big Ten, Bravo, Cartoon, Chiller, CNBC, CNN, ESPN News, FX, Sci Fi, Showtime West, Speed, TBS, Tennis, Toon Disney, USA, Discovery (2). • RSNs (21): full time (5), part-time (16) • MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA sports packages: 10-15
HD Stats • 33M current HDTV homes • 14.5M homes with HD STBs • (66% cable, 27% DBS) • 40M HDTV homes by year’s end • 16M HDTVs to be sold in 2007 • Source: CEA
AT&T U-verse Bundle • U100: $59/month—100 channels/ 1.5Mbps/1M • U200: $74/month—195 channels/1.5Mbps/1M • U300: $94/month—240 channels/1.5Mbps/1M • U400: $119/month—300 channels/3Mbps/1M • Elite 6Mbps/1 costs $10 more • HD channels: A&E, Cinemax (2), Discovery, ESPN, ESPN2, Food, HBO (2), HDNet, HDNet Movies, HGTV, MHD, NGC, NFL, Showtime (2), Starz (2), TMC, TNT, Universal, Wealth
U-verse Limitations (current) • Can only watch one HD stream at a time • Limited VOD menu (compared to cable) • HSD tops out at 6 Mbps • Day-long installs • Some users report (HD) pixelation, DVR scheduling issues • Central office (2,500 foot) distances
U-verse TV Subscribers Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 • U-verse TV adds 3,000 0 10,000 38,000 • U-verse TV total subs 3,000 3,000 13,000 51,000 • U-verse TV homes marketed 30,000 100,000 750,000 1.3M* • U-verse TV penetration 10% 3% 2% 4%
FiOS TV and Internet • 200 channels: $42.99/mo. • HDTV: $9.99/mo. • HD/DVR: $12.99/mo. • 5M/2M: $39.99/mo. • 15M/2M: $49.99/mo. • 30M/5M: $179.99/mo.
Competitive thoughts • Think “quality” HD---Focus on most popular HD channels. Augment “long tail” HD channels with VOD. • Think about SDV: What’s the difference between a 500-home node and a 500 subscriber system? • Steal a page from DBS---Offer VOD through the Internet and create PC-to-TV link for broadband subscribers. • Think P2P—Could you use your broadband subscribers PCs as servers for a local area server network? • Think Skype---Could you offer phone service through IP? • Think local—Record, show and store every major HS sports, community fair, parade, dance recital, theater event, etc. Make it available on broadband and VOD.
Thank you • Matt Stump • Vice President • One Touch Intelligence • www.onetrak.com