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The Impact of Residential Mobility on Measurements of Neighbourhood Effects

The Impact of Residential Mobility on Measurements of Neighbourhood Effects. Lina Bergström Institute for Housing and Urban Studies Uppsala University lina.bergstrom@ibf.uu.se.

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The Impact of Residential Mobility on Measurements of Neighbourhood Effects

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  1. The Impact of Residential Mobility on Measurements of Neighbourhood Effects Lina Bergström Institute for Housing and Urban Studies Uppsala University lina.bergstrom@ibf.uu.se

  2. Source: Andersson, R (2008) Neighbourhood Effects and the Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda? Schmollers Jahrbuch 128 pp. 1-14 (Data from GeoSweden)

  3. Change in Ethnic Composition 1991-2006, Tensta, Stockholm Source: GeoSweden

  4. A holistic framework Moving patterns Moving patterns Moving patterns Individual mobility Time t Time t+1 Neighbourhood conditions Neighbourhood conditions Aggregate behaviour Individual behaviour Aggregate behaviour Individual behaviour

  5. Challenge 1: Exposure time • Transmission mechanisms require a critical amount of exposure Problems: • How long residing in neighbourhood? - is exposure sufficient? - affects on impact • During what time in life? • How do exposure to different neighbourhoods relate to each other?

  6. Challenge 2: Neighbourhood Change • Neighbourhood context may change over time • The urban opportunity structure may change over time Problems: • Estimate exposure to constant neighbourhood? • Observable and unobservable characteristics • Aggregate levels vs. individual influence

  7. Solutions: • Sampling • Exposure to neighbourhood Problem: changing contexts • Exposure to environmental characteristic Problem: impact of specific neighbourhoods • Exposure to stable neighbourhood context Problem: small, unrepresentative and biased samples • Control variables for exposure time and changing contexts Problem: finding enough and “right” control variables • Complementary data, e.g. surveys

  8. Challenge 3: Selection bias • People select themselves into neighbourhoods for reasons unknown to the researcher • Reasons might be correlated with outcome • Most scholars agree that bias exist, some argue that all effects are due to bias Problem: Eliminating selection bias to find effect of neighbourhood

  9. Solutions: • Experimental data (like MTO) Problem: Rare, must fulfil criteria of exposure and selection bias control • Statistical techniques • Sibling analysis • Difference modelling • Instrumental variables Problem: Eliminate bias but says nothing about selection processes • Modelling neighbourhood choice Problem: Explanatory value need to be good for eliminating selection bias

  10. Challenge 4: Endogeneity bias • The choice of neighbourhood as a joint decision with choice of tenure, type of housing, length of stay • All may be correlated with outcome Problem • Isolating the effect of the neighbourhood Solution • Instrumental variables Problem: finding good instruments

  11. Conclusion: Implications for research • Residential mobility and neighbourhood effects are two interconnected fields • Mobility must be incorporated into models • Longitudinal data! • Control for exposure (ind./neigh’d) • Control for selection bias • Control for endogeneity • Or: Results will be biased or do not (necessarily) estimate neighbourhood effects!

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