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ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing

ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing. Chad Hart Associate Professor chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. Lee Schulz Assistant Professor lschulz@iastate.edu 515-294-3356. Livestock Pricing. Today’s Topic. Price Determination and Discovery. Price Determination

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ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing

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  1. ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Associate Professor chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 Lee Schulz Assistant Professor lschulz@iastate.edu 515-294-3356

  2. Livestock Pricing Today’s Topic

  3. Price Determination and Discovery Price Determination is the broad forces of supply and demand establishing a market clearing price for a commodity. Price Discovery is the process by which buyers and sellers arrive at a transaction price for a given quality and quantityof product at a given timeand place.

  4. Price Determination Supply determinants or factors affecting quantity produced Input prices (feed, feeder cattle, weaned/feeder pigs) Technology (growth promotants, etc.) Expected price of outputs produced from inputs (finished cattle, finished hogs) Demand forces or factors affecting quantity consumed Prices of products produced (beef, pork) Prices of competing products (chicken, turkey, beef, pork) Consumer income Tastes and preferences

  5. Price Discovery A human process, subject to relative bargaining power of the buyer and seller. Involves several interrelated concepts: Market structure (number, size, location, and competitiveness of buyers and sellers), Market behavior (buyer procurement and pricing methods), Market information and price reporting (amount, timeliness, and reliability of information), and Futures markets and risk management alternatives. Two stage process Evaluate supply, demand, and market prices. Estimate the price for the specific trade.

  6. Price Determination and Price Discovery S P Pe D Q Qe

  7. Futures Markets in Price Discovery • Centralized pricing • Global forces in one location • Predominate price discovery for grains • Still have local price discovery for basis • Livestock price discovery more complicated • Variability – basis a bigger issue • Growing inventory problem

  8. Centralized Pricing All buyers and sellers in one place at one time, i.e., auction market Full and immediate information Competitive bidding Equalizes market power Transaction cost Physical movement of product

  9. Important Market Functions Assembly function Feeder cattle Cull cows Sorting function Feeder cattle grade and condition Weight Intended use/destination

  10. Decentralized Pricing One-to-one negotiations Reduced transportation cost Reduced transaction cost Depends on skills and information Higher search cost

  11. Where to Sell Terminal markets have declined Auction markets important when assembly is needed Feeder cattle and cull cows Growing interest in fed cattle in fringe areas Direct sales Slaughter cattle and hogs Weaned and feeder pigs Growing in feeder cattle where source verification is important

  12. Feeder Cattle Sales Live weight sales Various weight classes In general, lower $/# and heavier weights Auction is major market Assembly function important Video auctions Direct trade Premium paid for Large uniform lots Certification/verification ??????

  13. Slaughter Cattle and Hogs Direct sales most common Animals are delivered directly to the packing plant Spot or cash market Seller contacts buyer when ready to sell Negotiate price and terms on each group Contract market May be for one group or an ongoing agreement between buyer and seller Terms and pricing method determined ahead of marketing date

  14. Hybrid Markets Electronic markets Centralized pricing Decentralized product movement Examples Satellite auctions Electronic auctions Tel-o-auction E-commerce

  15. Formula Pricing Price discovery from elsewhere Formula contracts Spot market Cutout price Futures Cost of production Do you trust the underlying market for price discovery?

  16. Formula price • Based on observable price • Spot market • Hog futures, maybe corn & SBM • Example: 50% of 5-month-out LH futures • Cash/Spot market price • Often through a broker • USDA report

  17. Wean to Finish Pig Pricing Simulation 50% 5-month out LHF Seller’s Buyer’s ReturnsReturns Average $7.31 $3.03 Std Dev $5.68 $16.97 Minimum -$6.39 -$36.67 Maximum $18.91 $35.23

  18. Wean to Finish Pig Pricing Simulation 60% 5-month out LHF Seller’s Buyer’s ReturnsReturns Average $15.12 -$4.78 Std Dev $6.94 $16.11 Minimum -$2.83 -$44.00 Maximum $27.43 $27.56

  19. Wean to Finish Pig Pricing Simulation 70% 5-month out LHF Seller’s Buyer’s ReturnsReturns Average $21.58 -$11.24 Std Dev $6.90 $16.51 Minimum $1.71 -$51.33 Maximum $29.95 $24.74

  20. Performance Issues “Least cost” method of price discovery Effect of the mechanism on price behavior Marketing vs. pricing efficiency

  21. Information and Markets Price reporting Role of the government Collection and dissemination and timely reporting of prices that were discovered. Other private treaty buyers and sellers incorporate new information into their negotiation. Facilitates formula pricing

  22. Packer Offering Price • Starts with derived demand from wholesale and retail markets • Time lag between sales of product and purchase of animals. • Orders typically booked 3 weeks in advance. • Special features, holidays etc may be longer. • Clean up orders may be few days • Packer is anticipating prices and stands risk

  23. Derived Demand S Vertical distance is the difference in price at 3 levels There is cost associated with moving from one level to the next Px Pretail Pwholesale Pfarm Dretail Cuts of meat Carcasses Animals Dwholesale Dfarm Q Qx

  24. Derived Demand for Pork Average retail price $/lb $2.50 Value of trim and scrap $/lb $0.10 Costs from whlse-retail $/lb -$1.00 The most retail will pay $/lb $1.60 Retail pounds per carcass 100 The most retail will pay $/head $160

  25. Derived Demand for Hogs Wholesale carcass value $/hd $160 Value hide and offal $/hd $25 Costs to slaughter and fab $/hd -$20 The most packer will pay $/hd $165 Wholesale pounds per carcass 200 The most packer will pay $/cwt. $82.50 (or think of it as ¢/lb.)

  26. Producer Asking Price • Starts with cost of production • Reflects current market conditions • Time is a huge factor for livestock • Marginal revenue may decrease • Marginal cost increases at increasing rate • Farmer has longer time period than packer from start of process to end.

  27. Class web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Classes/econ337/Spring2014/

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