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A. Kamada *, M. Ikegami, H. Naoe , M . Kajino , M. Deushi , T. Maki

The Regional Chemical Transport Model over Northeast Asia Area Operated by Japan Meteorological Agency. Our target: surface O 3. A. Kamada *, M. Ikegami, H. Naoe , M . Kajino , M. Deushi , T. Maki. Japan Meteorological Agency. Photochemical oxidant advisory in Japan. Transport.

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A. Kamada *, M. Ikegami, H. Naoe , M . Kajino , M. Deushi , T. Maki

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  1. The Regional Chemical Transport Model over Northeast Asia Area Operated by Japan Meteorological Agency Our target: surface O3 A. Kamada*, M. Ikegami, H. Naoe, M. Kajino, M. Deushi, T. Maki Japan Meteorological Agency

  2. Photochemical oxidant advisory in Japan Transport Chemistry Meteorological data 2015~ Oxidant advisory Category advisory 2 (over 120 ppb) advisory 1 (over 80 ppb) advisory 0 (below 80 ppb) Emission inventories Global CTM (MRICCM2) ~110 km Regional CTM (NHM-Chem) Deushi, 2011 20 km Kajino, 2012 O3 • JMA provide information on photochemical oxidant using daily maxima surface O3simulated by CTM. • We are going to operate the regional CTM in 2015.

  3. Outline • The regional CTM over Northeast Asia • Validation of the regional CTM • Statistical Guidancefor photochemical oxidant advisories

  4. 1. The regional CTM over Northeast Asia Observation by the ministry of the environment • The regional CTM can • resolve the details of surface O3distribution. • reproduce high surface O3 concentration in urban area. 2nd June, 2014 Tokyo Global CTM Regional CTM 200 km

  5. Forecast system using regional - global CTM MRI-CCM2/CTM NHM-Chem Horizontal 20km, 18 levels Nesting O3 NO2 NO CO T106L48 nudging Meteorological data Global model analysis and forecast by JMA Emission inventories Emission inventories JMANHM （20km）

  6. 2. Validation of the regional CTM Ex. Tokyo grid(daily mean) The regional CTM simulates surface ozone more accurately than global CTM especially in urban area. APR Year

  7. Simulation in mountain areas daily mean APR Year • Despite large overestimation, the regional CTM correlation is better than that of the global CTM. • Considering to forecast high photochemical ozone events at urban area, this result seems reasonable.

  8. Simulation in urban areas • At night time, the regional CTM tends to underestimate the ozone value because loss of O3 by NO is too much at night in this model. • Daily maxima during daytime are also underestimated a little. Tokyo hourly August, 2013

  9. 3. Statistical Guidance Frequency Bias Correction Method Guidance Observation daily maximum We use this method to make statistic guidance at every prefecture and every month. O3(ppb) (5%) <- category Ⅳ 120 Guidance =bias correction Ⅲ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ (10%) Ⅳ 100 Ⅱ (35%) 80 Ⅰ (50%) Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Model daily maximum (5%) (35%) (10%) (50%) O3(ppb) 85 67 78 frequency

  10. An Example of Statistical Guidance • Using the statistical guidance, we can forecast level 2 more accurately for each prefecture. Observation model VS. [ ppb ] Guidance 110 [ ppb ] [ ppb ] 124 97 112 100 161 132 94 125 Prefecture line 20 km 90 172 181 92 175 173 70 151 156 146 78 151 Ex. 1st June, 2014

  11. Threat Score (TS) or Critical Success Index (CSI) Yes No Yes FO FX XX No XO Eventobserved Eventforecast Its range is 0 to 1. Perfect forecast / TS=1 120ppb Threat Score （2009-2013） * With guidance

  12. Summary • We are going to start operation of a new regional CTM (NHM-Chem) besides the global CTM in 2015. • The regional CTM (1)simulates surface ozone concentration with good correlation, but (2)underestimates their daily maxima in urban areas. • The underestimate is improved by introducing the statistical guidance method. The resulted skill exceeds the ordinary global CTM.

  13. Reference • Carter, W.: Documentation of the SAPRC-99 chemical mechanism for VOC reactivity assessment. Final report to California Air Resources Board, Rep. 92-329, Univ. of Calif., Riverside, 8 May, 2000. • Deushi, M. and Shibata, K.: Development of an MRI Chemistry-Climate Model ver.2 for the study of tropospheric and strarospheric chemistry, papers in Meteor. Geophys.,62, 1-46 (2011). • Kajino, M., Y. Inomata, K. Sato, H. Ueda, Z. Han, J. An, G. Katata, M. Deushi, T. Maki, N. Oshima, J. Kurokawa, T. Ohara, A. Takami, S. Hatakeyama: Development of an aerosol chemical transport model RAQM2 and prediction of Northeast Asian aerosol mass, size, chemistry, and the mixing type. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11833-11856, 2012

  14. Contingency table of the regional CTM Spring (Apr.-May) Summer (Jun.-Sep.)

  15. Contingency table of the global CTM Spring (Apr.-May) Summer (Jun.-Sep.)

  16. Whether chart at Northeast Asia L L H H L H 2nd June, 2014 15JST (06UTC)

  17. Statistics averaged all global CTM grid

  18. global CTM grid

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