道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选

1. Carmakers warn of China slowdown Foreign carmakers are warning of a slowdown in the world’s largest auto market, after February sales figures showed the first year-on-year decline in 16 months. China’s tighter monetary policy and the expiration of tax incentives for small cars at the end of last year have damped demand, which is still growing in double digits but not at last year’s blistering pace of 32 per cent. Ford and GM both expect at least 10 per cent growth in passenger vehicle sales in China this year, senior executives from the two US carmakers told the Financial Times in interviews. The news comes as China continues trying to cool the economy by restricting monetary policy and imposing anti-inflation measures. China recently revised its economic growth target down to 7 per cent per year for the five-year plan running through 2015, from the previous 7.5 per cent. Carmakers have reckoned on slower sales this year. “The trend line is 10 to 15 per cent continuing growth levels,” said Kevin Wale, GM’s head of China operations. However, he added: “We are not seeing any signs that underlying demand for cars isn’t strong.” Joe Hinrichs, Ford’s Asia-Pacific head, said the slowdown was not as pronounced as expected. “We are feeling that the growth has slowed down . . . but it’s still the world’s largest growth market,” he said. Last year, 18m vehicles were sold in China. “Even 10 per cent growth on 18m units is 1.8m units, that is six assembly plants,” Mr Hinrichs said. 中国汽车销量增速正在放缓 外国汽车制造商警告，全球最大汽车市场正在放缓。2月份销量数据显示，中国汽车销量16个月来首次出现同比下滑。 中国收紧货币政策，以及去年底小排量汽车税收优惠政策到期，均削弱了汽车需求。虽然需求仍在以两位数增长，但已非去年高达32%的水平 美国汽车制造商福特(Ford)和通用汽车(GM)的高管在接受英国《金融时报》采访时透露，两家公司均预计今年在华乘用车销量至少将增长10% 当前，中国正继续通过收紧货币政策和实施抗通胀措施给经济降温。 中国最近将2011-2015年五年计划中的年经济增长目标从以前的7.5%下调为7%。 汽车制造商此前就预计今年销量会放缓。通用汽车中国公司总裁甘文维(Kevin Wale)表示：“趋势线是10%-15%的持续增长水平。” 不过他接着说道：“我们目前没有看到表明汽车根本需求不强劲的任何迹象。” 福特亚太区总裁乔•辛瑞奇(Joe Hinrichs)表示，放缓势头不像预期的那么明显。“我们感觉到增长有所放缓……但这里仍然是全球最大的增长型市场。” 去年中国汽车销量达到1800万辆。辛瑞奇表示：“在1800万辆基础上，就算只增长10%，也是180万辆，相当于6家组装厂的产量之和。” DOWJONES EDUCATION 道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选 如需更多精彩内容或订阅,请登陆:uni.xinhuaonline.com 联系方式：北京朝阳区东大桥路8号尚都国际502室（ 100020） 联系电话：010-58700900

2. End of the one-child policy coming? China’s toymakers could be a lot busier in future, if media reports are correct. China’s one-child policy is apparently under discussion at the country’s family planning departments, and could be rolled back in urban areas some time in the next five years to allow a second child. A government official quoted in the People’s Daily Online says that China is becoming rich enough to prevent a population boom should the policy come to an end. Wang [Yuqing, CPPCC member and deputy director of the Committee of Population, Resources and Environment] said that the two-child policy will not lead to a population boom. He said that birth rates in large cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are decreasing because the cost of raising a child has increased and young people’s attitudes have also changed. This is also consistent with the international trend. If quality of life reaches a certain level, the population will naturally decrease without government control.' China’s one-child policy has been in place for over 30 years. It doesn’t apply to everyone – in rural areas some families are allowed to have two children if the first child is a girl (hence why some have dubbed it the ‘one-son policy’), while some ethnic minority groups are allowed to have a number of children. Aside from a spike in demand for toys and baby formula, there are other ways that a jump in baby numbers might have implications for the economy. Having two kids rather than one could have an impact on savings rates – as parents spend more on bigger families and worry less about having someone to care for them in old age. Spending on children, not least education, could divert money away from other forms of consumption. And then there’s the housing market. China has built a huge number of new residential properties in the last decade. But lots of them are designed for a maximum of 3 people: mum, dad, and baby. If families add another mouth, property developers may have to add another bedroom. But it may be too late. Some young couples in Shanghai, for example, have grown so attatched to the extra personal spending they can enjoy when they don’t have children that they hesitate about starting a family at all. Perhaps the one-child policy has gone further than its inventors would have wished. 独生子女政策走到头了？ 如果媒体报道准确的话，中国玩具制造商今后可能会忙碌得多。中国的计划生育部门似乎正在讨论独生子女政策，有可能在5年内在城镇取消这项政策，允许生第二胎。 人民网(People’s Daily Online)援引一位政府官员的话称，中国现在已经足够富裕，放开二胎政策不会导致人口暴涨。“全国政协委员、人口资源环境委员会副主任王玉庆……认为，放开二胎政策不会导致人口暴涨。 ……他说，现在北京、上海这样的大城市人口出生率都在下降，特别是本地常住人口。因为现在养一个孩子的成本高了许多且年轻人的观念也在发生变化。这也符合国际规律，生活水平达到一定程度后，不需要政府控制，人口自然会下降。”中国的独生子女政策已经实施了30多年，但并非适用于每个人——农村家庭如果第一胎是女孩，就可以生第二胎（因此有人称之为‘独生子政策’），而一些少数民族则可以生多个孩子。 除了玩具和婴儿配方奶粉的需求会激增外，新生儿数量的跃升可能还会在其它几个方面对经济产生影响。放开二胎政策而不是只许生一个，可能会影响到储蓄率——因为由于家庭人口增加，父母会增加开销，减少对养老的担忧。花在孩子身上的钱，特别是教育方面的开支，可能会占用其它消费形式的资金。其次是对住宅市场的影响。过去十年，中国建设了大量新住宅，但许多都是为三口之家设计的：妈妈、爸爸和一个孩子。如果家里要增添一口人，房地产开放商或许就需要再增加一间卧室。不过，现在可能已经太迟了。以上海为例，许多年轻夫妻非常留恋没有孩子时能够享受的额外个人支出，以至于他们根本就不太想生孩子。或许独生子女政策影响之深远已经超出了政策设计者最初的设想。 DOWJONES EDUCATION 道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选 如需更多精彩内容或订阅,请登陆:uni.xinhuaonline.com 联系方式：北京朝阳区东大桥路8号尚都国际502室（ 100020） 联系电话：010-58700900