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NOAA SAB Meeting November 5, 2002

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Water, Weather, and Climate Services. NOAA SAB Meeting November 5, 2002. David Rogers NOAA Research. Outline. Background S&T Infusion STIP Overview Next Steps. Tornado Warnings. Background Planning for Future WWC Services.

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NOAA SAB Meeting November 5, 2002

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Water, Weather, and Climate Services NOAA SAB Meeting November 5, 2002 David Rogers NOAA Research

  2. Outline • Background • S&T Infusion • STIP Overview • Next Steps

  3. Tornado Warnings BackgroundPlanning for Future WWC Services • Successfully completed Modernization and Restructuring • Products and services have improved • Performance is leveling off • Users still have needs • S&T continues advancing • How will we respond and continue to improve?

  4. Air Quality Forecasts IFPS Current Radar Upgraded Radar Background How to Improve • Know and Anticipate Customer Needs • Evolve Operational Concepts • Train Workforce • Infuse Proven Science and Technology

  5. Bridging the Valley of Death Teams - Process - Architecture - Plans Operations R & D Improved Tech Insertion S&T Infusion Key Elements • Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork • To effect transition • Define Process • To establish thread to operations early • Promote Compatible Architecture - Prediction Systems and Testbeds • To streamline transition • Plan - Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution Plans • To set direction and add discipline

  6. Teamwork S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities Operations: • Identifies operational S&T shortfalls • Evaluates S&T opportunities • Conducts applied R&D – operational applications • Inserts proven new S&T into operations • Leads planning and budgeting for S&T insertion into operations

  7. Teamwork S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities Research: • Develop/find R&D • Identify opportunities, make data/info available early • Respond to operational shortfalls • Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T • Consult in maintenance of operational capabilities • Lead planning and budgeting for R&D

  8. Time Opportunities Push STIPInfusion Process Requirements Pull Reqirements Validation Solution Selection Solution Development Deployment R&D Required? Solution Analysis User Needs YES NO YES Potential Use? Positive R&D Evaluation? Positive Demo Evaluation? Operational Requirement? Endorsed R&D Endorsed Demo S&T Idea

  9. Architecture Commonality/Compatibility is Key WRF • Prediction systems • Vision: Compatible research and operational models • Testbeds • Vision: Develop and test new S&T supporting improved operations in laboratory settings - When proven: Timely, cost-effective transition to operations

  10. Architecture Testbed Vision Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation2003 AO planned Satellite DA Joint Hurricane Testbed 8 funded projects Universities, Labs, Other Hurricanes Climate Universities, Labs, Other Planned NWS Observations NWP Severe Weather Coastal Marine Aviation

  11. S&T Infusion Plan (STIP) Purpose • Support Operational Product, Service, and Effectiveness Improvement Needs by: • Defining S&T Needs and Solutions • Identifying S&T Opportunities • Establishing Framework for End-to-End, Research to Operations S&T Planning and Execution including: • Planning Programming Budgeting Executing • Defining processes/mechanisms to accelerate S&T Infusion in disciplined, cost-effective manners

  12. STIP Roadmap Goals Integrated Solutions Across Service/Science Areas • Performance-Measure Based • “End-to-End” • Research to operations • Observations to delivering information to users • Reflective of reasonable budget expectations

  13. Severe WeatherSummary Vision High Resolution Severe Weather Warnings with Advance Lead Time and a High Level of Certainty • R&D Needs • Tornadogenesis • R&D on Severe Weather • Cloud-Scale Models • Situational Awareness Tools and Training • R&D on Total Lightning Data and Radar Polarimetry Data • Objective Verification • Predictability Limits • Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic Impact • Implement WRF • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Dual Polarization • New Satellite Remote Sensing • Enhanced Training Increasing Performance • WSR88D Radar Upgrades • TDWR integration • WES/Training • MDCRS R&D 2002 2007 2012 2020

  14. Tropical CyclonesSummary Vision 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 80 nm 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt • R&D Needs • Shear Effects on Track • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms • Microphysics Effects • Improved Data Assimilation • Improved Model Physics • Ensemble Techniques • Adaptive Observations • Predictability Limits • Implement Hurricane WRF • Data Assimilation • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Expand Adaptive Strategies • New Satellite Remote Sensing Increasing Performance • Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades • Expand Targeted Observations Joint Hurricane Testbed 2002 2007 2012 2020

  15. Hydrologic ServicesSummary Vision Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess & Deficits More Frequently at More Locations • R&D Needs • Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models • Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Assimilation • Hydrometeorological Testbeds Increasing Performance • Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models • Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools • Location-specific Warnings • Graphical, Probabilistic Products • Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades On-going Training 2002 2007 2012 2020

  16. Climate ServicesSummary Vision To Provide a Seamless Suite of Products and Services of Climate • R&D Needs • Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) • Develop Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 forecast • Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water Resource Applications Improving Forecasts and Services • Improve NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-LDAS • Upgrade GFDL Ocean Model from MOM1 to MOM3 and MOM4 and Improve ODAS • Improve Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics • Modernize COOP, CRN, ASOS • Increase Moored and Drifting Buoys • Improve Satellite Observation for SST • VOS/ASAP • Develop Objective Blending Forecast Techniques 2007 2012 2002

  17. ObservationsSummary Vision Observations When and Where Needed Supporting NWS Service missions • R&D Needs • Boundary Layer Observations • Improved RH & Cloud Observations • Improved Adaptive Obs Strategies, Platforms, and Sensors • Improved Vertical Profile Resolution • WSR-88D Upgrades (Dual Pol, Phased Array) • Improved LEO and GEO Satellites; >> data volume!!! • Expansion of Adaptive Obs • Increasing Radiation Budget Observations • Mature WSR-88D ORPG, ORDA • Rapid Expansion of Mesonets • Expansion of Aircraft Obs • Development of Testbed Strategies Increasing Performance 2002 2007 2012 2020

  18. Vision Common Model Framework For Climate/Weather/Water • Common Climate/ Global System • More Realistic Cloud Physics • Improve Use of Existing & New Observations • WRF Framework • Advanced Ensembling • Cloud Analysis • Adv. Small-scale Data Assimilation • Adv. Physics/ Coupled AQ Numerical PredictionSummary Supporting NWS Service missions • R&D Needs • Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data • Mesoscale Assimilation Techniques • Improved Representation of Non-Hydrostatic Scale Physics • Probabilistic Approaches • Mesoscale Verification Techniques Increasing Performance 2002 2007 2012 2020

  19. STIP Next Steps“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable”Dwight D. Eisenhower • Develop/Link to Program, Budget, and Execution Plans • Link to Strategic Plans • Link to Budget Process - Develop FY 05 Initiatives

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