Vaccines related epidemiologyProgramme design and policy options First EpiTrain course in Advanced Epidemiology Jurmala Latvia 29.10.2004 Hanna Nohynek KTL Helsinki Finland
Vaccination Policy Options ? Eradication Activities New Vaccine Introduction Newer Vaccine Research and Development Outbreak vs routine control of epidemic diseases
Evolution of Immunization Programmes 1 2 3 4 5 Resumption of Confidence Loss of Confidence Pre-vaccine IncreasingCoverage Eradication Disease Vaccinations Stops Incidence Outbreak Vaccine Coverage AdverseEvents Maturity of programme Ref: Grabenstein JD, Hospital Pharmacy 1996
When planning vaccinating (an individual or) a population Vaccine efficacy Severity of disease Risk to contract Adverse events Coverage Price
Basic questions when introducing new vaccines into a national programme • Is the vaccine efficacious enough and safe ? • Is there big enough vaccine preventable disease burden in the country ? • Is the public aware of the importance of the disease ? • Is the vaccine coverage good ? • How could the vaccine be introduced into the national schedule ? • How can the country assure availability of the vaccine in long term ?
Decision making processes for introducing new vaccines vary greatly in industrialized countries Reasons • national health systems in place • funding basis of programme • gross national product • national prioritization health vs. other values within health
Case Finland: Rationale and aims of changes in programme 2001- Opportunity to make major revisions arising from decision to stop national vaccine production (to end by December 2004) Best possible/affordable protection to whole population National consensus process Revisions need to base on scientific evidence and cost effectiveness evaluation Carefully controlled implementation Follow up of implementation and evaluation of effectiveness
National vaccination programme in 2001 Age Vaccine Injections <1 weeks BCG 3 mo DTwP 4 mo DTwP + Hib 5 mo DTwP 6 mo Polio + Hib 12 mo Polio 14-18 mo MMR + Hib 20-24 mo DTwP + polio
Possible programmatic changes discussed New combination vaccine to replace wP in DTwP Reductions / omissions BCG Add ons hepatitis B, pertussis, influenza, pneumococcus (PPV), tick born encephalitis (regionally) New vaccines varicella, pneumococcus (PCV),(meningococcus C)
Costs of the Finnish nEPI Population 5.2 mi, birth cohort 60 000
Costs of new nEPI ? = 5 - fold difference !
Disease / vaccine specific subgroup reports VE evidence categorized according to ~EBM • Pertussis • BCG • Varicella • Influenza • Pneumococcus (PPS, PCV) • Combination vaccines • Hepatitis B • TBE Cost effectiveness analyses
New decision making process adopted = 4 steps approach Factors to consider 1) Expected public health benefit 2) Safety of vaccine individually 3) Safety effects on population level 4) Benefit / cost of vaccine
Outcome of the 4 step evaluation for 7PCV 1) Expected public health benefit +
Invasive Infections Pneumonia (X-ray positive) Acute Otitis Efficacy of PncCRM vaccine 3ISPPD 2002
Invasive Pnc infections in Finland in 1995-99 Cases/year Incidence/100 000/year 7PCV serotype coverage 49,4% 67,5 % Age, years Source: National Register for Infectious Diseases
Incidence of pneumonia strongly affected by case definition Also has an impact on expected VE of PCV
FinOM cohort Pilot study Incidence of Acute Otitis Media AOM is most common among children 7-12 mo of age. AOM / 100 childmonth All AOM AOM by Pnc Kilpi et al. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2001;20:654-62
Pnc disease burden in Finland Birth cohort 60 000 Universal use of 7PCV potentially prevents annually 50 - 60 cases of IPD 500 - 1 800 cases of pneumonia 10 000 episodes of AOM 2 400 otologic surgery procedures
4 steps approach for 7PCV 1) Expected public health benefit + 2) Safety of vaccine + large scale RC trials demonstrated safety on individual level
4 steps approach for 7PCV 1) Expected public health benefit + 2) Safety of vaccine + 3) Population level effects + herd effect ?/- replacement
4 steps approach for 7PCV 1) Expected public health benefit + 2) Safety of vaccine + 3) Population level effects + herd effect, ? replacement 4) Benefit / cost of vaccine - with 4 doses
Costs € of introducing 7PCV into national program Salo H et al. ESPID 2003
Cost effectiveness of 7PCV in Finland 1) The price of 7PCV should be third (half) the price 2) Effect of reducing number of 7PCV doses and/or using 23PncPS for boosting needs to be evaluated 3) Benefits = quality of life > life years saved Salo H et al. ESPID 2003
Conclusion from step 4 evaluation Introduction of 4 doses of 7PCV would almost triple the costs of universal childhood vaccination program compared to the 2001 level, even if all savings achieved by reduced disease burden were taken into account.
Final conclusion Expert consensus: even if pneumococcus causes substantial public health disease burden, 7PCV is safe and possibly has positive herd effect extending to older age groups,7PCV is not cost efficacious if given according to the recommended 4-dose schedule; therefore, at the time being 7PCV is not recommended to be implementedinto national vaccination program in Finland.
Further comment by WG Introduction of new vaccines should not be compared to introduction of old vaccines Right comparision = new vaccines vs. any other preventive health intervention (screening for prostate cancer, hip replacement, etc.)
Further comment by WG 1. Introduction of new vaccines should not be compared to introduction of old vaccines Right comparision = new vaccines vs. any other preventive health intervention (screening for prostate cancer, hip replacement, etc.) 2. Any health intervention to be introduced should have a firm scientific evidence base 3. Limited resources should be targeted at interventions with equal benefit obtained with least amount of costs Shift of paradigm !
In October 2004, Finland is • Getting ready to introduce a new routine infant immunization programme without 7PCV (January 2005->) • Recalculating costs and benefits taking into consideration accumulating evidence of the effects of 7PCV (herd immunity, need of less than 4 doses, replacement)
National vaccination programme in 2004 Age Vaccine Injections <1 weeks BCG 3 mo DTwP 4 mo DTwP + Hib 5 mo DTwP 6 mo Polio + Hib 12 mo Polio 14-18 mo MMR + Hib 20-24 mo DTwP + polio
National vaccination programme in 2005 Age Vaccine Injections <1 weeks BCG 3 mo DTaP-Polio-Hib 4 mo 5 mo DTaP-Polio-Hib 6 mo 12 mo DTaP-Polio-Hib 14-18 mo MMR 20-24 mo
11 countries receiving support from GAVI/VF Hep B immunization policy WHO European Region, 2004
Haemophilus influenza type b immunizationWHO European Region 2004 Source: Joint reporting form as of 30/09/2004
Annual incidence of Hib meningitis in children<5 years of age before the introduction of immunization based on about 70 studies in countries of the WHO European Region
Other new and under-used antigens in the European Region(as shown on the WHO/UNICEF Joint Reporting Forms for 2003) • Accellular pertussis vaccine (aP and aP-containing vaccines) • 25 countries (WE and CCEE) • Meningococcal conjugate vaccine • 10 WE countries • Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine • 6 WE countries • Varicella vaccine • 2 WE countries How accurate is this information?
Vaccine programmes for the rich vs. poor • Rich: DTP, IPV, MMR + HBV, Hib + Varicella, PCV + Influenza • Poor: BCG, DTP, OPV, M + HBV, (Hib) • -> GAVI