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NH GI C PHIU Bui 2 P DNG C C M H NH CHIT KHU D NG TIN

Cash Flow is a Company's Lifeblood.. N?i dung tr

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NH GI C PHIU Bui 2 P DNG C C M H NH CHIT KHU D NG TIN

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    1. ?NH GI C? PHI?U (Bu?i 2 P D?NG CC M HNH CHI?T KH?U DNG TI?N)

    2. Cash Flow is a Companys Lifeblood.

    3. N?i dung trnh by 1. M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) 2. M hnh chi?t kh?u dng ti?n t? do (FCFE) 3. M hnh chi?t kh?u dng ti?n t? do ton doanh nghi?p (FCFF)

    4. 1.M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) Cng th?c t?ng qut: Trong d: D0 : c? t?c nam v?a qua g : t?c d? tang tru?ng c? t?c r : t? l? sinh l?i yu c?u Pn : gi bn nam th? n

    5. 1.M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) M hnh 1 giai do?n_M hnh Gordon M hnh hai giai do?n Ghg: t?c d? tang tru?ng trong giai do?n tang tru?ng cao T: kho?ng th?i gian tang tru?ng cao

    6. 1.M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) V d? 1: Cng ty c? ph?n s?a Vi?t Nam (VNM) cu?i nam nay s? chi tr? c? t?c l 2000 VN, EPS = 5800VN. ROE = 25%. Bi?t beta c?a VNM l 0.8 v m?c li su?t phi r?i ro l 8.5%. M?c sinh l?i c?a th? tru?ng l 20%. Hy d?nh gi c? phi?u VNM.

    7. 1.M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) Hu?ng d?n: p d?ng cng th?c c?a m hnh tang tru?ng d?u Tnh ton t?c d? tang tru?ng c? t?c: g= (1 - b)*ROE = 16.38% Xc d?nh m?c sinh l?i yu c?u: r = rf +(rm rf ) = 18% Tnh ton:

    8. 1.M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) V d? 2: Vo cu?i nam 1991, l?i nhu?n v c? t?c c?a Phillip Morris du?c k v?ng s? tang 20% trong vng 5 nam, sau d s? gi?m xu?ng cn 7%. C? t?c thanh ton trong nam 1991 l 1.91$. M?c sinh l?i yu c?u cho th? tru?ng v?n c? ph?n M? l 10%. Hy s? d?ng m hnh DDM hai giai do?n d? d?nh gi c? phi?u c?a P.Morris vo cu?i nam 1991. Gi? d?nh r?ng m?c r?i ro c?a c? phi?u P.Morris b?ng v?i nh?ng c? phi?u di?n hnh c?a th? tru?ng c? phi?u M?.

    9. 1.M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) Hu?ng d?n DDM 2 giai do?n: Xc d?nh m?c sinh l?i trung bnh th? tru?ng r = 10%. Gi tr? hi?n t?i c?a lu?ng c? t?c trong giai do?n tang tru?ng:G=20%

    10. 1.M hnh chi?t kh?u lu?ng c? t?c (DDM) Hu?ng d?n DDM 2 giai do?n: Gi tr? c?a lu?ng c? t?c trong giai do?n ?n d?nh chi?t kh?u v? 1996: T?c d? tang tru?ng c? t?c gst=7%. DIV1997 = DIV1996*(1+gst) = 4.753*(1+0.07) = 5.085 Pn = DIV1997 / (r g) = 5.085/(0.1-0.07) = 169.513 $ Gi tr? c?a c? phi?u P.Morris t?i th?i di?m cu?i nam 1991 : P = PV1 + Pn/(1+0.1)5 = 12.49 + 169.513/ 1.15 = 117.7$

    11. 2. M hnh FCFE Xc d?nh FCFE: FCFE = thu nh?p rng (chi ph TSC kh?u hao) thay d?i v?n luu d?ng (khng ti?n m?t) + (n? m?i pht hnh n? du?c tr?). FCFE = thu nh?p rng (chi ph TSC kh?u hao)*(1 t? l? n?) thay d?i v?n luu d?ng*(1 t? l? n?).

    12. 2. M hnh FCFE Cng th?c t?ng qut: Trong d: P0: gi tr? c?a CF. FCFE0: FCFE c?a nam d?u tin. ke: chi ph v?n c? ph?n. g: t?c d? tang tru?ng c?a FCFE.

    13. 2. M hnh FCFE p d?ng m hnh 1 giai do?n: khi Cty tang tru?ng ?n d?nh: p d?ng m hnh FCFE 2 giai do?n: P0 = PVFCFE + PVgd ?n d?nh

    14. 2. M hnh FCFE V d?: Cty Singapo Airline dang trong gd tang tru?ng ?n d?nh Cho s? li?u c?a nam 2000 nhu sau: (dv tnh:1,000 SGD) - Thu nh?p rng = 1,164 - Thay d?i v?n luu d?ng rng = 500 - T? l? n? = 6% - rf =6%,rm =12%, = 0.8 ?ke= 6+0.8*(12 - 6) =10.8% - Chi ph TSC = 1,520 - Kh?u hao = 1,220 - T? l? tang tru?ng k? v?ng c?a FCFE (gn) = 6.46% - S? lu?ng CF luu hnh = 100.000

    15. 2. M hnh FCFE Xc d?nh FCFE: FCFE = 1,164 - (1,520 1,220)*(1 0.06) - 500*(1 0.06) = 412 g = 6.46% p d?ng cng th?c: P0 = 412(1+0.0646)/(0.108 0.0646) = 10,105.341 Gi tr? c? phi?u= P0/s? c? phi?u = 101.05 SGD Bu?c 1: FCFE = thu nh?p rng (chi ph TSC kh?u hao)*(1 t? l? n?) thay d?i v?n luu d?ng*(1 t? l? n?). Bu?c 2: Xc d?nh t?c d? tang tru?ng FCFE Bu?c 3: p d?ng cng th?c v tnh ton:

    16. 3. M hnh FCFF Xc d?nh FCFF: FCFF = EBIT*(1 - T) (chi ph TSC Kh?u hao) thay d?i v?n luu d?ng rng. Cng th?c t?ng qut: Trong d: WACC: chi ph v?n bnh qun.

    17. 3. M hnh FCFF p d?ng m hnh 1 giai do?n: p d?ng m hnh 2 giai do?n:

    18. 3. M hnh FCFF V d?: DN A c th?i k? tang tru?ng cao (ghg) d?n nam 2010, sau d di vo ? d?nh (gst) Cc ch? tiu nam ti chnh 2006, nhu sau: - EBIT (1-T) = 500 tri?u - Kh?u hao = 70 tr - Chi ph d?u tu vo TSC m?i = 100 tr - Chnh l?ch v?n luu d?ng rng = 150 tr - T?ng Ti s?n 2006 = 2 000 tr - WACChg = 15% ; gi? d?nh DN A c ROC ?n d?nh - WACCst = 10% - gst = 5%

    19. 3. M hnh FCFF Gi tr? hi?n t?i c?a lu?ng ti?n trong giai do?n tang tru?ng d?u: Gi tr? DN = PV1+PV2 =7.061,611

    20. BI T?P BI 1: Medtronic, m?t cng ty s?n xu?t thi?t b? y t?, bo co EPS nam 1993 l 3.95$ v tr? c? t?c 0.68$/ c? phi?u. Thu nh?p du?c k v?ng tang tru?ng 16% t? nam 1994 d?n 1998 v sau d gi?m t?ng nam r?i di vo ?n d?nh t? nam 2003, d?t 6% . T? l? chi tr? c? t?c du?c k v?ng l s? khng d?? t? nam 1994 d?n 1998 sau d tang t?ng nam v d?t 60% trong giai do?n ?n d?nh. C? phi?u c bta l 1.25 t? nam 1994 d?n 1998 v sau d s? gi?m t?ng nam d?t 1 vo giai do?n ?n d?nh ( li su?t c?u tn phi?u kho b?c k h?n 3 thng l 6.25%/nam) Gi? d?nh r?ng t?c d? tang tru?ng gi?m tuy?n tnh v t? l? tr? c? t?c tang tuy?n tnh t? 1999 d?n 2003. Tnh ton c? t?c t?ng nam t? 1999 d?n 2003 Tnh ton m?c ga k v?ng vo cu?i nam 2003 Tnh ton gi tr? c? phi?u s? d?ng m hnh DDM

    21. BI T?P Bi 2: Cng ty c? ph?n du?c H?u Giang (DHG) c cc s? li?u ti chnh nam 2006 nhu sau: T?ng ti s?n l 482.84 t? T?ng cc kho?n n? l 312.405 t? L?i nhu?n sau thu?: 87.06 t? C? t?c nam 2006 l 2000VN/CP S? c? phi?u luu hnh nam 2006 l 8 tri?u C? phi?u Nh d?u tu cho r?ng t? l? chi tr? c? t?c v dn b?y ti chnh c?a DHG s? khng d?i d?n nam 2010. Sau nam 2010 tr? di t? l? n? gi?m 10% v m?c chi tr? c? t?c s? tang thm 15% v ROA gi?m 5% Gi? d?nh r?ng m?c sinh l?i yu c?u c?a DHG trong giai do?n 2007-2010 l 25% v giai do?n ?n d?nh l 18% Hy tnh gi tr? c?a DHG vo th?i di?m cu?i nam 2006.

    22. BI T?P BI 3: C bo co ti chnh nam 1993 c?a Cty Ecolab nhu sau: EPS = 2.35$ v t? l? tang tru?ng k? v?ng l 15.5% t? nam 1994 1998 v cc nam sau d l 6%. Chi ph TSC/ CF = 2.25$ v kh?u hao/CF = 1.125$. Chi ph TSC v kh?u hao c t? l? tang tru?ng b?ng v?i thu nh?p t? nam 1994 1998. Thay d?i v?n luu d?ng b?ng 5% kho?n thu? Nh nu?c (= 1.000.000.000$ v c t? l? tang tru?ng l 6% t? nam 1994 1998, v sau cc nam sau d l 4%). T? l? n? hi?n t?i l 5%. = 1.00, rf = 6.50%, rm = 8% Cty c 63.000.000 CF. U?c lu?ng gi CF sau nam 1998 (v?i cc y?u t? khc khng thay d?i.)

    23. BI T?P BI 4: Cng ty Kimberly Clark, c bo co ti chnh nam 1993 nhu sau: -EPS = 3.20$ -DPS = 1.70$. -Kh?u hao = 315.000.000$. -Chi ph TSC = 475.000.000$. -Cng ty c 160.000.000 c? phi?u v dang giao d?ch v?i gi 51$/CF. -V?n luu d?ng rng = 0. -N? chua tr? = 1.600.000.000$ v duy tr t? l? N?/V?n c? ph?n trong tuong lai. -Tang tru?ng k? v?ng c?a thu nh?p l 7%/nam. -rf = 6.25%, = 1.05 U?c lu?ng gi m?i CF c?a Cty Kimberly Clark b?ng phuong php FCFE.

    24. BI T?P Bi 5: Bo co ti chnh nam 1993 c?a Eastman kodak nhu sau: EBIT = 560.000.000$. Thu nh?p t? thu? = 5.285.000.000.000$ T? l? tang tru?ng c?a thu nh?p l 6% t? nam 1994 1998 v 4% nhung nam sau d. Chi ph TSC = 420.000.000$ v kh?u hao = 350.000.000$. C? hai c t? l? tang tru?ng ?n d?nh trong th?i gian di l 4%. T? l? n? l 20% v duy tr khng d?i. = 1.15, rf = 7%, thu? thu nh?p DN l 40%. U?c tnh gi tr? CF b?ng phuong php FCFF.

    25. BI T?P BI 6: Boco ti chnh nam 1993 c?a Union Pacific Railroad nhu sau: Thu nh?p rng = 770.000.000$. Chi ph li su?t = 320.000.000$. Kh?u hao = 960.000.000$. Chi ph TSC = 1.200.000.000$. Trn s? sch kho?n n? DN cn n? l 4.000.000.000$, cu?i nam 1992 l 3.800.000.000$. = 1.05, rf = 7%, rm = 8%. Gi tr? s? sch = 5.000.000.000$. Thu? thu nh?p DN l 36%, DN c 200.000.000 CF v gi dang giao d?ch l 60$/CF. T? l? tr? c? t?c l 40% thu nh?p v ch ph ti s?n luu d?ng = 0. U?c tnh gi CF theo phuong php FCFF.

    26. BI T?P BI 7: Cho bi?t cc thng tin v? doanh nghi?p ABC 5 nam t?i 2007 2011: Bi?t: thu? TNDN = 60%. Nam 2004, doanh nghi?p pht hnh tri phi?u v?i t?ng m?nh gi 5 t?, k? h?n 10 nam, li su?t 8%/nam. T? nam 2012 d? don dng ti?n t? do tang d?u 5%/nam. T? su?t sinh l?i yu c?u l 13.5% T? l? N?/VCSH=45/55 Li su?t th? tru?ng 2006 gi?m so v?i 2004 l 0.5% Hy xc d?nh: - gi tr? doanh nghi?p vo d?u 2007 - gi tr? m?i c? ph?n bi?t s? c? phi?u thu?ng dang luu hnh l 1 tri?u.

    27. THE END

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