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1. Patterns and Variability

1. Patterns and Variability

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1. Patterns and Variability

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  1. GCP Implementation Plan 1.Patterns and Variability 2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks • 2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechanisms • Multiple mechanisms and interactions • 2.2. Emergent Properties C-Climate • Paleo and Forward • 2.3. Emergent Properties C-C-Hum. • New modeling approaches • 1.1. Enhancing Observations • Coordination & Standardization • 1.2. Model-Data Fusion • Model-data fusion techniques • 1.3 Carbon Budgets • Methodologies, Sector Analyses 3. Future & C Management • 3.1. Mitigation Options • Control points land, ocean, FF • 3.2. C Management & Sustainabil. • Portfolios and sustainable develop. • 3.3. Regional/Urban Development • C consequences and Management

  2. Unperturbed C Cycle Perturbed C Cycle Human Response Climate Change and Variabil. Perceptions of human welfare Atmospheric Carbon Fossil Carbon Solubility Pump Biological Pump Changes in institutions & technol. Industry Transport Systems Land Use Systems Disturbances Ecosystem Physiology Ocean-use Systems Terrestrial Carbon Ocean/Coastal Carbon The Conceptual Framework

  3. CarboEurope, Germany GHG CA, Italy IOC/SCOR-CO2 Panel Paris, France Beijing, China USA Affiliate Off. Affiliate Off. Proposed only International Project and Affiliate Offices NIES,Tsukuba Japan (April 2004) Inter.Proj.Off. CSIRO,Canberra Australia

  4. Scientific Steering Committee Michael Apps, Canada Alain Chedin, France Cheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China, Taipei Peter Cox, UK Ellen Druffel, USA Christopher Field, USA Patricia Romero Lankao, Mexico Louis Philipe Lebel, Thailand Annan Partwardhan, India Monika Rhein, Germany Christopher Sabine, USA Riccardo Valentini, Italy Yoshiki Yamagata, Japan Co-Chairs: Michael Raupach, Australia Robert Dickinson, USA Oran Young, USA Executive Directors: Pep Canadell, Australia Penelope Canan, Japan (starting April 2004) Affiliated Offices: EU-CarboEurope: Annette Freibauer,Germany SCOR-IOC Panel on Ocean CO2: Maria Hood,France

  5. Portfolio of ActivitiesA few examples

  6. Regional T. C Budgets Confer. Land Use-Carbon SI Portfolio of Activities: Overview Coupling Humans-Biogeochem. CoP9-Synthesis Book Urban Dev.-Carbon Institute Data Assimilation: Data Wk Publication Science Framework State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk Ocean Coordination Wk Annual SSC Meeting Terrestrial Sinks Wk Research Institute Data Assimilation 2002 2003 2004

  7. Volunteer Observing Ships Repeated Sections International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project IOCCP - http://ioc.unesco.org/ioccp/index.htm[with the IOC-SCOR CO2 Panel] • Synthesize large-scale ocean carbon observation activities and plans. • Integration of large-scale carbon studies into international research programs • Promote acceptance of standardized measurement techniques • Improved accessibility to international carbon data sets • 13-15 January 2003, Paris, FranceInternational Workshop on Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities. Contact: Maria Hood, Chris Sabine • 10-14 March 2003, Hazaki Town,Ibaraki, Japan • International pCO2 sensor intercomparison experiment. Contact: Y.Nojiri • 14-17 January 2004, Tsukuba, JapanWorkshop on Ocean Surface pCO2, Data Integration and Database Development. Contact:Y.Nojiri

  8. Model-Data Fusion Research Institutes (2 weeks long) and focused workshops Research, Tool development, Capacity Building http://dataportal.ucar.edu/CDAS/ http://www.fao.org/gtos/meetSHE.html • Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [Colorado2002] • Terrestrial Model-Data Fusion [Sheffield 2003] w/GTOS • Synthesis processes intercomparsion [Australia 2004] • Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2005] • Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2006]

  9. Integrated Terrestrial C Sink Mechanisms With IPCC CO2fertilization Plant growth Forest conversion Cold ecosystems x x Warm ecosystems Temperature aCO2 concentration Land use Carbon Storage in the Biosphere Soil respiration N fertilization Fire x x Temperature Nitrogen deposition Fire Suppression GCP 2003

  10. Integrated Synthesis Toward CO2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity Book Presentation: COP9-Milan, Dec03 Publication: February 2004 Topics: 1. current status and past trends of the carbon cycle; 2. vulnerabilities in the carbon cycle in the 21st Century; 3. scenarios, targets, gaps and costs 4. a portfolio of carbon management options; 5. CO2 stabilization pathways and sustainable Earth System

  11. Vulnerability of carbon pools in the earth system Grubber et al. 2004 (from SCOPE-GCP rapid assessment) • Compile a catalogue of vulnerable C pools and their global distribution. • Quantify the extent of these vulnerable pools and their C content. • Assess the processes affecting the balance and release of C (incl. “thresholds) • Analyze the impacts of C release from vulnerable pools on a[CO2] and climate NCEAS proposal 2004, submitted

  12. C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and the Global Carbon Cycle START-Packard Foundation NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 4 – 22 August 2003 Source: Diane Pataki • Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities • Establishing a network of regional case studies • Asia Pacific (funded) • Central-South America (funded)

  13. Workshop Series (2004 – 2007): Coupling the human dimensions to the climate-carbon system • Title: Coupling biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle. • Goal: To identify and develop key methods, models, process knowledge and interactions necessary to treat the global carbon cycle as a coupled carbon-climate-human system. • Topics: • Dynamical-system and game-theory approaches. • Models of Intermediate Complexity • Integrative Assessment Models • Institutional dimensions • Technological opportunities and constraints • Conceptual Frameworks • Scenarios-based approaches In preparation

  14. Products

  15. Synthesis Products Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds.) (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: 1-141. GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation. Canadell J, Dickinson R, Hibbart K, Young O, Raupach M (eds.). ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1, Canberra, p.69 Field C, Raupach M (eds.) (2004) The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate and the Natural World. Island Press, Washington D.C. (in press) Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P (eds.) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change. Special Issue (in press)

  16. All publications • Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann M (2003) Quantifying terrestrial carbon sinks. Special issue in Climatic Change (in preparation) • Field C, Raupach M, editors (2003) Towards CO2 stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences, Field C, Raupach M (Eds.). Island Press, Washington D.C. (in press) • Global Carbon Project (2003). The GCP Science framework and Implementation. Canadell JG, Dickson R, Raupach M, Young O (Eds). Earth Science System, Partnership (ESS) Report Series No.1, GCP Report Series No 1, Canberra, pp. 69 • Sabine C, Hood M (2003) Ocean carbon scientists organize to acheive better coordination, cooperation . EOS 84: 218-220 • Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I, editors (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: 1-141. • Hibbard K, Steffen W, Benedict S, Busalachi T, Canadell J, Dickinson R, Raupach M, Smith B, Tilbrook B, Velling P, Young O (2001) The carbon challenge. An IGBP-IHDP-WCRP project. Stockholm. Pre-project products • Schimel DS, House JI, Hibbard KA, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Peylin P, Braswell BH, Apps MA, Baker D, Bondeau A, Canadell J, Churkina G, Cramer W, Denning AS, Field CB, Friedlingstein P, Goodale C, Heimann M, Houghton RA, Melillo JM, Moore III B, Murdiyarso D, Noble I, Pacala SW, Prentice IC, Raupach MR, Rayner PJ, Scholes RJ, Steffen WL, Wirth C (2001) Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Nature 414: 169-172. • Gupta J, Lebel L, Velling P, Young O, IHDP Secretariat (2001) IHDP Global Carbon cycle research. Bonn, IHDP. • Falkowski P, RJ Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, S. Linder, F.T. Mackenzie, B. Moore III, T. Pederson, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Smetacek, W. Steffen [The IGBP Carbon Working Group] (2000) The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of our Knowledge of Earth as a System. Science 290: 291-296. • Canadell J.G, Mooney H.A., Baldocchi D.D., Berry J.A., Ehleringer J.R., Field C.B., Gower S.T., Hollinger D.Y., Hunt J.E., Jackson R.B., Running S.W., Shaver G.R., Steffen W., Trumbore S.E., Valentini R., Bond B.Y. (2000). Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: a multi-technique approach for improved understanding. Ecosystems 3: 115-130. • Steffen, W, Noble, I, Canadell, J, Apps, M, Schulze, E-D, Jarvis, PG, Baldocchi, D, Ciais, P, Cramer, W, Ehleringer, J, Farquhar, G, Field, CB, Ghazi, A, Gifford, R, Heimann, M, Houghton, R, Kabat, P, Körner, C, Lambin, E, Linder, S, Mooney, HA, Murdiyarso, D, Post, WM, Prentice, IC, Raupach, MR, Schimel, DS, Shvidenko, A and Valentini, R (1998) The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto protocol. Science 280: 1393-1394.

  17. www.globalcarbonproject.org