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Action NTS0504: - Provide comparative demand data over a sample number of years

Action NTS0504: - Provide comparative demand data over a sample number of years. NTS Charging Methodology Forum (NTSCMF) 23rd June 2014. Introduction. Mod 356 “Demand data for exit capacity” was introduced when the supply forecasts were lower than the demand

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Action NTS0504: - Provide comparative demand data over a sample number of years

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  1. Action NTS0504: - Provide comparative demanddata over a sample number of years NTS Charging Methodology Forum (NTSCMF) 23rd June 2014

  2. Introduction • Mod 356 “Demand data for exit capacity” was introduced when the supply forecasts were lower than the demand • At this point NG committed to publishing actual prices by 1 May to fit in with the July Application Window and the DNs requirements to pass through NTS/LDZ capacity costs to shippers • Effective from 1 May/October 2012

  3. Process • Two years considered, 2012 and 2013 • Took actual model for each year (set at 1 May of the year) • Updated with the relevant demands and supplies (revised forecasts available end of May) • All other variables remain the same • Re run models for new prices

  4. 2012 SW and WS would have been affected the most…. • Actuals used SD May 11 • At 1 Aug SD May 12 would have been available • Changes • Decrease in demand by 21GWh • Forecast supplies of beach remained the same • Decrease in demand met by reduced supplies at MH and IOG (GCM16) • Increase in demand in SW/WM/WS • Not enough supplies to meet demand locally compared to previous year and hence price increase.

  5. 2013no price effects … • Actuals used SD May 12 • At 1 Aug SD May 13 would have been available • Changes • Demand decreased by 151 GWh • Forecast supplies of beach remained the same • Decrease in demand met by reduced supplies at MH and IOG (GCM16) and storage sites around the country • Supply and demand balance remains the same ie supplies to meet demand locally compared to previous year and hence no price change (at exit zone level). Few small changes to some nodes.

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