Valuation. FIN 449 Michael Dimond. Financial Forecasting. Why might the simplest approach not work? How detailed should be the analysis? Does history tell the future? How long of a trend should be observed? Are the line items independent? Is growth in a line item really growth in the firm?
Financial Forecasting Why might the simplest approach not work? How detailed should be the analysis? Does history tell the future? How long of a trend should be observed? Are the line items independent? Is growth in a line item really growth in the firm? Have earnings been manipulated in the past? Are the cash flows sustainable – can the operation continue this way?
General Guidelines for Good Forecasting The steps are interdependent. Make adjustments in an order that makes sense for the business model. For example, revenue forecasts may first require forecasts of new stores The financial statements must interconnect For example, the change in depreciation on the BS should equal the depreciation expense for the year. Simple errors can be avoided if the spreadsheet is dynamic. Allow for the firm’s need for capital in at least one account with a “TBD” balance For example, Extra Funds Needed (EFN) may come from debt or somewhere else. What has been the firm’s history? What is likely to be its future? GIGO – Garbage In, Garbage Out All assumptions must make sense historically, economically and strategically. The forecast is only as good as the assumptions Sensitivity Analysis will test key assumptions Those inputs which make the biggest difference when they change are those which require the most thought care and monitoring.
High-level Forecasting Projected Sales & Income Approach Projected Total Assets Approach Problems with these approaches?
Maybe Something More Sophisticated? Remember our friends at DuPont? What’s the Implied Growth Rate of Average Assets?
What problems exist with this approach?
Detailed Forecasting Project Operating Revenues Project Operating Expenses Project Operating Assets & Liabilities Project Financial Need & Capital Structure Build Pro Forma Balance Sheet Project Other IS Items Build Pro Forma Income Statement Project Dividends & Change in Retained Earnings Build Pro Forma Statement of Retained Earnings Project Cash Flows from Operations, Investing & Financing Activities Build Statement of Cash Flows Adjusting as needed Adapted from Stickney et al, Financial Reporting and Statement Analysis
Operating Revenues Projecting Sales Segments Volume Price Projecting Other Revenue Watch for unusual gains, such as from the sale of assets (ask, “is this a sustainable cash flow?”) Forecasting errors Some assumptions will be incorrect, but the significance of each needs to be understood. For example, high DOL means more potential for forecasting error. A small error in sales projections can lever up into larger errors in projected cash flows.
Been to a video store lately? The 80s video store Video chains Delivery Streaming
Been to a video store lately? How has Netflix revenue model changed?
Been to a video store lately? The 80s video store Video chains Delivery Streaming Better streaming NPD, not R&D The extra dollar Customer Satisfaction Proposition (not Customer “Value” Proposition, IMHO) Forecasting Graduation
Operating Expenses Percent of Sales: Cost of Goods Sold Selling, General & Administrative Expenses Other Operating Expenses Watch for “one time” expenditures. These may be legitimately unique or be an indication of manipulation.
Projecting Operating Expenses
Assets Cash & Marketable Securities Accounts Receivable Inventories Other Current Assets Investments in Unconsolidated Affiliates Property, Plant & Equipment Other Assets What assets vary as a function of Total Assets?
Assets Cash & Marketable Securities (Days Sales) Accounts Receivable (Days Sales) Inventories (COGS x Inventory Turnover) Other Current Assets (% of Total Assets?) Investments in Unconsolidated Affiliates (TBD) Property, Plant & Equipment (explicit model) Other Assets (TBD) Few assets vary as a % of Total Assets
Liabilities Accounts Payable (Based on Days Inventory) Other Current Liabilities (Same % as SG&A?) Short-term Borrowings (Trend?) Long-term Debt (Trend?) Current Maturities of LT Debt (Explicit Model) Deferred Income Taxes (Same % as Sales?) Other Non-current Liabilities (Same % as SG&A?)
Equity Items Consider these is these in the context of assets & liabilities which have been forecasted Preferred Stock (rarely changes) Minority Interest (rarely changes) Common Stock (TBD) Capital In Excess of Par Value (TBD) Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss (TBD) Other Equity Adjustments (TBD) Treasury Stock (TBD)
Financial Need & Capital Structure The Balance Sheet will probably not balance without adjustment Is there a source of or a need for additional capital? EFN (Extra Funds Needed) can be modeled explicitly from financial statements (based on the imbalance), but this will require iterative adjustments to expenses such as interest, which will influence balances such as cash, which…
Financial Need & Capital Structure EFN can also be estimated in this way: Where A* = assets that increase proportionally with sales L* = liabilities that increase proportionally with sales g = growth rate in sales EBIT = operating income T = tax rate d = dividend payout ratio I0 = interest expense (ignoring any additional financing) i = interest rate on additional funds borrowed
Financial Need & Capital Structure Where is EFN going to be applied? Change in cash or marketable securities Change in long-term investment securities Change in long-term, interest bearing debt Change in dividends or treasury stock repurchases Now the Pro Forma Balance Sheet can be constructed
Other IS Items Interest Expense Interest Income Income Taxes Net Income Now the Pro Forma Income Statement can be constructed
Dividends & Change in Retained Earnings Dividend Policy Change in RE = NI – Dividends Now the Pro Forma Statement of Retained Earnings can be constructed
Statement of Cash Flows Cash Flows from Operations Cash Flows from Investing Cash Flows from Financing Activities
Building the Statement of Cash Flows
From here, we can compute Free Cash Flows
Assumptions What assumptions are we making about PepsiCo? How can we test each? What segments for sales are you using? How are you attributing growth to volume & price? What is PepsiCo’s relationship between sales & assets? What about costs of raw materials?
The Right Tax Rate to Use The choice really is between the effective and the marginal tax rate. In doing projections, it is far safer to use the marginal tax rate since the effective tax rate is really a reflection of the difference between the accounting and the tax books. What about GE and their zero tax liability? By using the marginal tax rate, we tend to understate the after-tax operating income in the earlier years, but the after-tax tax operating income is more accurate in later years If you choose to use the effective tax rate, adjust the tax rate towards the marginal tax rate over time.
Expected FCF Forecast, then Recast Start by predicting what is likely to be published on the financial statements. After that, recast the figures to better reflect the economic realities for operating leases, R&D (if applicable) and sustainability of operating cash flows. Compute FCFs using more than one formula to ensure you have found all the issues in your figures.