Transport air pollution Key issues, policies, and the case of phasing out leaded gasoline

1. Transport air pollution Key issues, policies, and the case of phasing out leaded gasoline Magda Lovei Environment Department

2. Urban air pollution:key environmental concerns • Human health impacts • Highest risk: lead, particulates • Other pollutants of concern: carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, toxic chemicals • Other environmental externalities • damage to natural and physical capital, amenity losses, noise, climate change

3. Relative burden of various environmental impacts Note: Average for 6 developing cities Source: Lvovsky et al.

4. Health impacts of air pollution • Almost 40 thousand excess deaths annually in the Newly Independent States • More than 4,000 premature deaths and 1.5 million asthma attacks annually in Jakarta • Average 3 - 6 IQ points loss in urban children in Bangok, Cairo, Manila...

5. The costs of air pollution • $1.1 -$4 billion annually in large cities of Asia • Almost $6 billion annually in the Newly Independent States • 5% of urban income in Europe and Central Asia, 10% in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta...

6. Sources of the environmental damage of air pollution Note: Average for 6 developing cities Source: Lvovsky et al.

7. Increasing problem in developing countries • Rapidly growing vehicle fleet • High pollution intensity of vehicles • inefficient and old vehicle fleet • poor maintenance • lack of proper emission control • poor fuel quality • Large roadside population exposed (street vendors, pedestrians)

8. Approaches to motor vehicle pollution abatement • Fuel efficiency taxation, standards • Emission control emission standards, I&M • Fuel properties fuel standards, taxation • Demand management vehicle and fuel taxes, restrictions, incentives • Other long-term planning

9. Ranking measures to reduce traffic emissions in Mexico City Marginal cost of emission reductions (dollars per ton) 2600 Fuel Improvements 2100 Emission standards 1600 Passenger cars Taxis (replacement) 1100 Strengthen inspection Gasoline trucks 600 Minibuses Inspection of passenger cars 100 0 Inspection of high-use vehicles Retrofitting (natural gas and LPG) -400 Cumulative emission reductions (million weighted tons) Target Reduction 1.2 million tons Technical controls only Controls, matched with gasoline tax Note: Calculations are based on -0.8 elasticity of demand for gasoline. Source: Gunnar Eskeland, World Bank, 1994.

10. The case of leaded gasoline phaseout An effective way of addressing an urban environmental priority

11. Blood lead levels worldwide (average of sampled populations, 1980s-1990s)

12. Lead in gasoline and human exposures: close links

13. No serious technical constraints • All vehicles can run on unleaded gasoline • Catalytic converters are not needed • Valve seat recession only affects few old cars • Lubricating additives are available to protect • All refineries can adjust to produce unleaded gasoline • Process changes (catalitic cracking, isomerization, alkylation) • Additives (e.g., oxygenates)

14. Benefits and costs of lead phaseout in the U.S.

15. Key policy conditions • Political commitment • Policies to encourage change in gasoline supply • Liberalized gasoline markets and prices • Policies to encourage shift in gasoline demand • Differential taxation - make unleaded cheaper! • Consensus and public information

16. Price difference and market share of unleaded gasoline

17. Progress in the global phaseout of lead • Total phaseout in 25+ countries • Decline in the amount of lead in gasoline • Around 80% of gasoline is unleaded world-wide • Improvements in ambient air quality and human health

18. Rapid phaseout in the Slovak Republic • Driving force: refinery • Key obstacle: valve seat recession in old cars • Solution: lubricating additive • Supporting policies: tax differentiation, public information • Other factors: monopoly and control of distribution system

19. Rapid Phaseout in a Small Country:El Salvador • Completed in 1 year • Fast decline in airborne lead (from 1.5 ug/m3 to 0) • Enabling conditions: • Private ownership of petroleum sector • Liberalized petroleum prices • Significant imports • Cost: 1 U.S. cent/liter

20. From health concerns to total phaseout in Thailand • Risk assessment study: lead exposure is priority problem • Political commitment • Price and market liberalization • Strengthened environmental regulations, institutions • Differentiated taxation • Clean fuels program and refinery adjustment • Increasing community awareness

21. World Bank’s support • Raise awareness and political commitment • Regional programs in Latin America, Caribbean, Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia • Help introducing national strategies and policies - technical assistance, dialogue • Bulgaria, El Salvador, Jamaica, Peru, Romania, Thailand, Vietnam... • Facilitate implementation • Thailand: refinery upgrade

22. Conclusions • The transport sector is a large source of environmental damage • Of largest health concern are particulates and lead • Phasing out leaded gasoline is very effective in addressing and environmental priority • Combination of policies and measures are needed • Many stakeholders should be involved