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Jake Walker, PhD, Project Director Arkansas Research Center

Initial Research Findings from Arkansas’ Statewide Longitudinal Data System: Using Standards-Based Research to Solve Real Education Problems. Jake Walker, PhD, Project Director Arkansas Research Center Greg Nadeau, Director, State Core Model, Public Consulting Group 2012 MIS Conference.

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Jake Walker, PhD, Project Director Arkansas Research Center

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  1. Initial Research Findings from Arkansas’ Statewide Longitudinal Data System: Using Standards-Based Research to Solve Real Education Problems Jake Walker, PhD, Project Director Arkansas Research Center Greg Nadeau, Director, State Core Model, Public Consulting Group 2012 MIS Conference

  2. The CEDS Data Model Process

  3. A foundation for standards convergence

  4. CEDS Domain Entity Schema (DES)

  5. CEDS NDS Conceptual Model Time Roles Organizations People Assessment Standards [Content]

  6. CEDS Logical Model (NDS): High Level

  7. Parsing NCES Forum Questions with a Standard Syntax

  8. Using CEDS for Analysis

  9. A Framework for Using CEDS for Analysis and Performance Management

  10. Using the Framework • Step 1: Framing the Issue • The Question • The Audience • The Audience’s Focuses • The Approach • Step 2: Selecting the Right Metrics • Data Sources • Data Matching • Variables Used • Step 3: Constraining the Metrics • Output • Step 4: Data Use • Wages by Degree Level by Major • UAMS Study

  11. The Question • What is the value of public higher education in the state of Arkansas?

  12. The Audience • State Level Policy Makers • Administrators of Public Institutions of Higher Education • Students and Families

  13. The Audience Focuses • Policy and Funding Issues • Program Planning and Staffing Issues • College Outcomes for Life

  14. The Approach Original Report New Version What are the employment outcomes of graduates from 2002 to 2009 as of 2010 in the state? What percentage of Arkansas residents and non-residents who graduate from public colleges and universities remain in Arkansas either in the workforce or enrolled in the higher education system? How does level of education impact salary? What is the median salary by field of study and level of degree of Arkansas graduates? In which industry areas are Arkansas graduates employed after they finish college? • What percentage of Arkansas residents and non-residents who graduate from public colleges and universities remain in Arkansas? • How does level of education impact salary? • What is the average salary by field of study and level of degree of Arkansas graduates?

  15. Variables Used Original Report New Version SSN DOB First Name Last Name Graduation Date (MM/YYYY) Degree Level Degree Area Residency Status Enrollment Status Employment Status Average Quarters Employed Annual Wages at Year 1 Annual Wages at Year 2 Annual Wages at Year 5 NAICS Code • SSN • Graduation Year • Degree Level • Degree Area • Residency Status • Employment Status • Annual Wages at Year 1 • Annual Wages at Year 5 • Residency Status ADHE ADHE ADWS ADWS

  16. Data Sources Original Report New Version Arkansas Department of Higher Education Arkansas Department of Workforce Services National Student ClearingHouse • Arkansas Department of Higher Education • Arkansas Department of Workforce Services

  17. Data Matching Original Report New Version TrustEd Broker System SSN DOB First Name Last Name Uses multiple pieces of information about a person to determine if they match. Personally identifiable information is removed and replaced with a non-traceable id. • SSN from ADHE matched to SSN from ADWS

  18. Identity Resolution (Wage Data) • ~55,000,000 records for 10 years, 2,938,718 unique SSNs, no DOBs, inconsistent naming standards. • 7,865 SSNs used by two or more people, for a total of 18,278 different individuals. Those would be combined incomes and treated as the same person if SSN was the primary key. • The same person has two or more SSNs (because of a typo/transposition) 13,373 times. There would be 13,373 additional (non-existent) people with separate incomes if SSN was the primary key.

  19. Trusted Broker A trusted broker maintains a cross reference table, encoding the identifiers for various agencies and for various representations of the entities. Agency 1 Agency 2

  20. Dual Database: Regulatory Compliance and Privacy Identity Information: Agency ID Generated Information of Interest: Stored With Agency ID Knowledge Base: Identity Management Edge Servers: Shareable Data

  21. De-identified Data

  22. Output Original Report New Version Percentage of Graduates Remaining in Arkansas Median Wages and Average Quarters Employed by Degree Level Median Wages and Average Quarters Employed by Degree Level by Degree Area/Field of Study Industry Area Employed in by Degree Level • Percentage of Graduates Remaining in Arkansas • Average Salary by Degree Level • Average Salary by Degree Level by Degree Area/Field of Study

  23. Population of Interest and Entry Time Into the Workforce • Old Report • Graduates from an academic year would only be counted as employed if they were present in wage data during the 4th QUARTER AFTER THE END OF THE GRADUATION YEAR. • New Report • Graduates were classified if they were employed at any point during the FIRST FOUR FULL QUARTERS AFTER THEIR GRADUATION DATE.

  24. Population of Interest and Entry Time Into the Workforce • Example • Graduates from the academic year 2005-2006 • Anyone who graduated from 07/01/2005 to 06/30/2006 • Old Report • 4th Quarter after the graduation year=2nd quarter of 2007 (April-June 2007) • Graduates during July-September of 2005 would not be classified as employed unless they had wages for the 2nd quarter of 2007 which is actually 7 quarters after they graduated not 4.

  25. Population of Interest and Entry Time Into the Workforce • Example • Graduates from the academic year 2005-2006 • Anyone who graduated from 07/01/2005 to 06/30/2006 • New Version • First Full Four Quarters after the graduate date

  26. Remained vs. Employed NEW Percentage Remained = # Employed Only + # Enrolled Only + # Enrolled and Employed/# Graduates OLD Percentage Remained = # Employed/# of Graduates

  27. Remained vs. Employed OLD Percentage Employed = # Employed/# of Graduates NEW Percentage Employed = # Employed + #Employed and Enrolled/# Graduates

  28. Average Salary vs. Median Wages OLD Average Wages = Sum(4th Quarter Wages * 4)/# Employed NEW Median Wages Y1 = Median of Sum(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) Median Wages Y2 = Median of Sum(Q5+Q6+Q7+Q8)

  29. Average Quarters Employed OLD Not Used NEW Average Quarters Employed =Sum(Quarters Employed)/# Employed

  30. Average Salary vs. Median Wages OLD Average Wages = Sum(20th Quarter Wages * 4)/# Employed NEW Median Wages Y5 = Median of Sum(Q17+Q18+Q19+Q20)

  31. Average Quarters Employed OLD Not Used NEW Average Quarters Employed =Sum(Quarters Employed)/# Employed

  32. Wages by Degree Level by Major OLD Average Wages = Sum(4th Quarter Wages * 4)/# Employed NEW Median Wages 2010 = Median of Sum2010(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4)

  33. Wages by Degree Level by Major OLD Average Wages = Sum(4th Quarter Wages * 4)/# Employed NEW Median Wages 2010 = Median of Sum2010(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4)

  34. UAMS Study

  35. Arkansas Research Center

  36. Contact Information arc.arkansas.gov

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