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Evaluating Integrated Assessment Methodologies for Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Projections

This study assesses integrated assessment methodologies and tools for air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. It aims to evaluate past experiences in baseline projections, perform sensitivity analyses, and explore future integrated strategies for air quality management. Conducted by a consortium including ETC/AQ, IIASA, and RIVM, the study reveals insights on CO2 emissions scenarios, urban air quality forecasts, and necessary cooperation with international organizations to improve air quality in the EU and accession countries.

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Evaluating Integrated Assessment Methodologies for Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Projections

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  1. Air pollution outlooks - an evaluation Integrated assessment methodology and tools applied to air pollution and greenhouse gases Roel van Aalst, EEA 10-5-01

  2. Goals of the study • Evaluate past experience in baseline projections for the report Environment in the EU at the Turn of the Century • Perform sensitivity analysis • Explore options for a future integrated assessment strategies The study was conducted by a consortium of ETC/AQ, ETC/AE, IIASA and NTUA led by RIVM, under coordination of an EEA team. A draft report will be available soon

  3. Integrated Assessment Economy & population D energy transport industry agriculture ……… P CO2 GHG SO2 NOx VOC NHx PM10 Emissions Air quality S SO2 NO2 O3 PM10 SO2 NO2 O3 PM10 regional urban

  4. ENERGY Basis: Shared Analysis; PRIMES model • Update • Sensitivity analysis

  5. ENERGY Update • energy prices and taxes • transport volume • inclusion of the EU-ACEA agreement. Result: - 2 % CO2 emissions in 2010. If the EU-ACEA agreement fails, + 2 % CO2 emissions .

  6. ENERGY Sensitivity analysis Electricity liberalization variant: Important changes in the fuel mix CO2 emission is not affected Renewables variant: 2010 1 % less emissions of CO2 20205 % less

  7. TRANSPORT Basis: Shared Analysis; PRIMES • Variant: Auto-Oil II (Tremove/ForeMove/COPERT)

  8. TRANSPORT ShAIR vs. baseline Auto Oil II scenario: different energy figures for base year 1990 differences in 2010 of ca. 10 % for NOx and 15 % for VOC for nine MS major discrepancies between transport, bottom-up scenarios and energy, top-down scenarios to be clarified

  9. AGRICULTURE • No long-term future agriculture trend information is available.

  10. Methodological issues • Inconsistencies in scenario assumptions (transport and energy scenarios) • Misconnections between various modules (regional-urban, global-regional) • Information incomplete or unavailable (non- CO2 GHG, PM10, agriculture scenarios, urban measures, accession countries)

  11. Greenhouse gases • EU emissions in 2010 4% above 1990 OR 12% above Kyoto target in this scenario • Reduced emissions of CH4 (-26 %) and N2O (-14 %) • Update: CO2 -2 %; +2 % if ACEA agreement fails • Stimulation of renewable energy can bring CO2 emissions several percents down in 2020

  12. Greenhouse gases • Strong need for national information on future trends for the six greenhouse gases and for extension of the current approach for GHG to other European countries. • Emission projection models are needed for CO2 emissions from non-energy sources, CH4, N2O; dedicated studies are recommended for HFC, PFC and SF6.

  13. Regional air quality Basis: IIASA RAINS/Shared Analysis • Auto-Oil variant (See transport) • Accession Countries EU emission standards variant

  14. Regional air quality • Substantial emission reductions • Emission Ceilings not met in 2010 (VOC, SO2) • Growing importance of NH3 • Improvement of PM inventories and emission projections urgent • inclusion of PM in the RAINS model

  15. Regional air quality • Strong link to Climate Change measures • Via fuel mix • CH4 reduction reduces background ozone • EU legislation key to emission in Accession countries • Positive impact to EU air quality

  16. Urban air quality Basis: Auto-Oil-II GEA • Urban Air quality improves drastically towards 2010/2020, but exceedances remain • Excess mortality due to SO2 in central Europe decreases sharply

  17. URBAN AQ: SENSITIVITY • Modelled concentrations are sensitive to meteorological conditions. The reduction in urban emissions needed to meet the air quality objectives may vary up to 50-60 % • Hourly regional background concentrations, necessary input for calculating exeedances in urban areas, not available from RAINS

  18. Essential conditions • Cooperation with other international organizations • Close interaction with stakeholders • Well connected to sectors • Involving accession countries

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