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Trends in the Political Ideology of the Cuban-American Voter

Trends in the Political Ideology of the Cuban-American Voter

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Trends in the Political Ideology of the Cuban-American Voter

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  1. Trends in the Political Ideology of the Cuban-American Voter Evidence from the Cuba Poll 1991-2011

  2. Social Dimensions of Change in Cuban Miami Institutions population culture Social organization Demographic Changes • Ideologies • Norms • Values • Beliefs • Groups • Classes • Stratification • Politics • Religious • Kinship • Education • Economy

  3. Next Few Minutes… • Trends in Cuban Migration, Residency and Naturalization. • How these trends have shaped Miami’s Latino demographics. • How these trends have shaped Cuban political ideology on US/Cuba relations. • Final note on Cuban-American political exceptionalism. • You should walk away with a sense of the changing nature of Cuban voter opinion towards US/Cuba Relations and the forces that are ineluctably creating the changes.

  4. Cubans Receiving Permanent Resident Status by Decades

  5. Cubans Naturalized2003-2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

  6. Comparative Rates of Naturalization of Selected Latino Groups2003-2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

  7. Latino Origin PopulationPercent of Total Population (2% or more) 2010

  8. Non-Hispanic African descent 425,650 17% Haitian 120,000 AA Cuban 860,000 35% Miami 2,496,435 Other Hispanic 31% Car 150,000 CA 212,542 <1994 559,00 65% >1994 301,00035% 1994> Other 142,000 SA 273,542 “Anglo” 383,551 15%

  9. 1990 Polls vs 2000 PollsAverage of ResponsesSupport for Embargo and Support for Dialogue

  10. Establishing a Dialogue

  11. Favor Continuing Embargo

  12. Do you think that the United States should continue the trade embargo with Cuba or should the United States end the trade embargo and permit normal trade with Cuba? Source: WPO 2009

  13. 1990 Polls vs 2000 PollsAverage of ResponsesSupport for Selling Medicines and Unrestricted Travel

  14. Allow companies to sell medicine to Cuba?

  15. Allow companies to sell food to Cuba?

  16. Should unrestricted travel from U.S. to Cuba be allowed (for all Americans)?

  17. Should unrestricted travel by all Americans to Cuba be allowed or not?

  18. Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba?

  19. Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?

  20. Registered as Republican, Democrat or Independent?

  21. Voter RegistrationCubans in Miami2011

  22. Among Multiple Identities- What is The Primary Identification among Latino Sub-Groups Statistically significant @.055

  23. LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMMONALITIES Thinking about issues like job opportunities, education or income, how much do your ethnic subgroup have in common with other Latinos or Hispanics? Would you say [ethnic subgroup] share a lot in common, some things in common, little in common, or nothing in common with other Latinos? NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT

  24. LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF POLITICAL COMMONALITIES Now thinking about things like government services and employment, political power and representation, how much do [ethnic subgroup] have in common with other Hispanics or Latinos? Would you say [ethnic subgroup] share a lot in common, some things in common, little in common, or nothing in common with other Statistically significant @<.05