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Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF”

The "ORMVERIF" project aims to evaluate the forecasts generated by the Oman Regional Model (ORM) through a comprehensive verification package. Conducted during the WSN05 conference in Toulouse, France (Sep 5-9, 2005), it identifies and addresses the strengths and weaknesses in model performance while monitoring behavioral patterns. Key design issues involve grid point representative selection, comparison with observational data, and implementation of diverse verification metrics. The package is available for request by WMO members, with accompanying technical documentation.

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Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF”

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  1. Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF” Sultan Salim AL-YahyaiFauzi Bader Al-BusaidiKhalid Khamis Al-Jahwari Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology, Sultanate of Oman WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  2. Location of Oman WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  3. Try To TUNE THE MODEL HIGHLIGHTS THE STRENTHS & WEAKMESSES OF THE MODELS MONITORING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS Aim of the Project • TO EVALUATE THE FORECASTS OF OMAN REGIONAL MODEL (ORM). WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  4. Verification Scheme • Most representative Grid Point. • Interpolation of the surrounding Grid Points Design Issues • Stations Grouping • Station with similar topographical features • Costal Station • Actual Station height – model grid point height <= X m WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  5. T 2m ( C ) Max temp. 2m ( C ) Min Temp. 2m ( C ) TD 2m ( C ) MSL Pressure (hPa) FF 10m ( knots ) DD 10m (degrees). Total Presp. Amount of low clouds DPD Design Issues • Elements to be verified Continuous Elements Categorical Elements WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  6. 72h fct 60h fct 48h fct 36h fct 24h fct 12h fct 0h fct Model run utc 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 day A-3 A-3 A-2 A-2 A-1 A-1 A Design Issues • Forecast Range to be verified OBS WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  7. Design Issues • OBS Quality Control 1) Elements value thresholds 2) Comparing OBS with model first guess WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  8. Design Issues • Hit rate with a margin of error • Bias • Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): • Statistics to be used Categorical Elements Continuous Elements • Hit rate • Probability of detection(POD) • False Alarm Rate (FAR) • Threat Score (TS) • Frequecy bias(FB) • Heidke Skill Score ( HSS ) WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  9. MSS ormverif Windows based NWP machine Implementation OBS MOS My SQL ODBC DMO (FCT) WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  10. Main Menu WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  11. Averaging Data Plotter WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  12. Table Viewer WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  13. Future Work • Implementing the Interpolation verif. Schema • Superimposing the Results of the verif. For more than one model • Verifying the upper levels data • Verifying the Wave Model WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  14. ORMVERIF Availability • Package available on request for WMO members: • Brazilian navy, UAE Met., Vietnam met., malaysia met. • User Manual • Tech. Documentation WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

  15. Thank You WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France

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