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Introduction to Climate Change Adaptation. Weather vs. Climate. Weather is what we experience and, as anyone living in Scotland will know, this can vary by the minute, as well as day-to-day and year-to-year.
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Weather vs. Climate Weather is what we experience and, as anyone living in Scotland will know, this can vary by the minute, as well as day-to-day and year-to-year. Climateis the average of weather conditions over a long period of time*... while climate changeis a long-term trend in climate * World Meteorological Organisation uses a 30-year period
Whatis adaptation? “The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.” Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (2014)
…not to be confused with mitigation Mitigation - Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to slow or stop global climate change, i.e. using the car less, flying less and buying local food. Adaptation- Adjusting to the impacts of climate change to reduce the negative impacts and exploit any opportunities, i.e. building sea walls or removing carpets from accommodation that is at risk from flooding.
Adaptation involves… Adapting to Present Climate or Weather, and Adapting to Future Climate Change
Why adapt to climate change? Scotland’s climate is already changing. The climate projections for the next century indicate that the climate trends observed over the last century will continue and intensify over the coming decades. Legislation for Public Bodies involves reporting annually on climate change adaptation progress.
We’ve already seen changes in the global climate 4 Observed global temperature change from 1900-2000. 3 2 Global Surface Warming (°C) 1 0 -1 1900 2000 2100 Source: adapted from NASA Earth Observatory data IPCC 2007 WG1 AR-4
Recent changes in temperature (1961-2006) Average annual summer temperature has increased by 1.3˚C since 1961. Average annual winter temperature has increased by 1˚C since 1961.
Recent changes in rainfall (1961-2006) Average annual winter rainfall has increased by 45% since 1961. Average annual summer rainfall has increased by 11% since 1961.
Other climate observations • Average annual temperature increased by 1°C between 1961 and 2004. • Average annual precipitation in Scotland increased by 21% between 1961 and 2004, with an almost 70% increase in winter precipitation for Northern Scotland. • There has been a 25% reduction in winter days with snow cover • Sea level at all of Scotland’s ports has been rising over the last century, with the rate accelerating over the last two decades • The growing season is now nearly 5 weeks longer in Scotland (comparing 1961 to 2004) • Since 1961 there has been more than a 25% reduction in the number of frost days across Scotland, with downward trend since the 1980s.
Projections of Future Global Climate High Growth (A2) Medium Growth (A1B) Low Growth (B1) Model simulations by the IPCC estimate that the Earth will warm between 2˚C and 6˚C over the next century, depending on how fast carbon dioxide emissions grow. Scenarios that assume people will burn more fossil fuel provide the estimates in the top end of the temperature range, while scenarios that assume that greenhouse gas emissions will grow slowly give lower temperature predictions. The orange line provides an estimate of global temperatures if greenhouse gases stayed at year 2000 levels. 4 3 2 Global Surface Warming (°C) 1 Constant CO2 (held at 2000 levels) 0 Source: adapted from NASA Earth Observatory data IPCC 2007 WG1 AR-4 -1 1900 2000 2100
What do we know about Scotland’s Future Climate? Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it... ... and we continue to improve on this. Scotland has access to world leading information, through the UK Climate Projections, about how our climate is likely to change over this century. http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/
Future climate change trends for Scotland • The key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are: • Weather will remain variable, it may become more variable • Typical summer is hotter and drier • Typical winter / autumn is milder and wetter • Sea level rise • We can also expect to see: • Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events • Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall
Building performance will be challenged Building performance will be challenged by a changing climate, needing to cope with more extreme summer temperatures, intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm patterns. This will require appropriate design and building standards, but also adaptation of existing building stock.
The occurrence of pests and diseases As our climate changes, it will create new conditions that may allow existing pests and diseases to spread and new threats to become established in Scotland. This may impact on the health of our people, animals, plants and ecosystems if risks are not properly managed.
Damaged infrastructure and disrupted transport networks Our infrastructure systems are likely to be impacted by an increase in disruptive events such as flooding, landslides, drought, and heatwaves. As our infrastructure is closely inter-linked and failure in any area could lead to wider disruption across these networks.
Water environment and resource management will become more complex As our climate warms and rainfall patterns change, there may be increased competition for water between households, agriculture, industry and the needs of the natural environment. Summer droughts may become more frequent and more severe causing problems for water quality and supply.
Rising seas will threaten coastal communities and infrastructure Sea level rise is already having a widespread impact on parts of Scotland’s coast. With this set to accelerate over the coming decades, we can expect to see more coastal flooding, erosion and coastline retreat – with consequences for our coastal communities and supporting infrastructure.
The demands on emergency and rescue services will change In a changing climate emergency services may need to respond to an increased frequency and severity of flooding, landslide and wildfire events. There may also be changes in social and recreational behaviour that present new challenges to the emergency and rescue services. Organisations need to consider whether staff, equipment and resources can respond to changing pressures.
The demands on health services will change A warming climate may provide more opportunity to be outdoors and enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle, while reducing mortality in winter. However, it could affect patterns of disease and other health issues. Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt the lives of individuals and communities, limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s physical and mental health.
How do you adapt? Working through an adaptation process will be different for communities, businesses and public sector organisations. To reflect this we have developed a generic adaptation process, along with a number of tools and resources to support each sector.
The adaptation process The adaptation process consists of 5 stages to help you get started with adaptation, understand and assess the impacts of current and future climate change, identify and prioritise your adaptation options to address your key climate risks, help you implement your adaptation actions, evaluate them, and continuously monitor and review your work.
Getting started 1 This stage of the process includes: • Finding out about the impacts of climate change for Scotland • Understanding why the impacts of climate change matter • Raising awareness and agreeing next steps
Understand the impacts of climate change 2 This stage of the process includes: • Learning about past climate trends and future projections • Understanding how your place, assets, services or priorities have been affected by severe weather events in the past • Considering how your place, assets, services or priorities might be affected as our climate continues to change
Identify and prioritise actions 3 This stage of the process includes: • Establishing a vision for a climate ready future • Identifying the most significant climate risks • Identifying existing adaptation options • Examining what further action is needed
Take action 4 This stage of the process includes: • Partnership working and leadership • Collating and presenting your adaptation actions • Building adaptive capacity • Implementing on the ground actions • Telling others
Monitor, review and evaluate 5 This stage of the process includes: • Monitoring and reporting progress • Reviewing regularly • Reflecting on what has worked and why • Evaluating the outcomes
Howwe can help Adapting to climate change takes time and Adaptation Scotland are here to provide support and advice with all your adaptation queries. We can help you from getting started and examining how climate change is impacting you, through to monitoring the effect of your adaptation efforts. We would love to hear from you! Please contact us on adaptationscotland@sniffer.org.uk
