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PRR 776 in the Context of the ERCOT Market Design. Eric S. Schubert Regulatory Affairs Advisor BP Energy Company. Concerns about PRR 776. PRR 776 could undermine successful ERCOT energy-only market design Unintended consequences of proposal PRR 776 could be problematic
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PRR 776 in the Context of the ERCOT Market Design Eric S. Schubert Regulatory Affairs Advisor BP Energy Company
Concerns about PRR 776 • PRR 776 could undermine successful ERCOT energy-only market design • Unintended consequences of proposal • PRR 776 could be problematic • Ancillary service procurement • Real-time reliability • Long-term resource adequacy • Demand-response justification likely undermined by the consequences of parameters in PRR 776 • Haste makes waste • Very little debate and review of proposal relative to market impact • RDF proposal was significantly improved by being remanded
Pricing in the ERCOT Balancing Energy Market • Limited debate over PRR 776 has shown some potential misunderstandings • “Spot market prices always settle at short-run marginal costs in other U.S. markets” • “High offers by generators that cause high MCPEs in ERCOT are inappropriate” • Need to put market offers and clearing prices in ERCOT into larger perspective
Resource Adequacy in Non-ERCOT Markets in the United States • Loads: Mandatory contracting to cover spot market exposure • Centralized capacity auction (PJM, ISO-NE; 3-5 years ahead) • Bilateral capacity contracts (MISO: 30 days or more ahead) • Generators: Mandatory participation in spot market • Earn revenues above their marginal costs outside the spot market • Accept a “must-offer” requirement into spot market • Loads cover investment risk of generators in exchange for limited price risk associated with real-time redispatch • FERC has recognized the need for shortage pricing to maintain • Reliability in real-time • Resource adequacy in the long run
Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Market • Resource adequacy mechanism in PUCT Substantive Rules 25.504 and 25.505 is unique within the U.S. • Allows retail and wholesale markets flexibility in contracting by placing • Investment risk on generators • Price risk on loads • Addresses system-wide market power through “small fish swim free” • During the rulemaking process, the PUCT was told by • Retailers and industrial loads that they would accept price risk to avoid capacity payments seen in PJM • Generators would accept investment risk if they were allowed to make offers above short-run marginal costs • Resource adequacy in ERCOT functions when investment risk for generators and price risk for loads are in rough balance • “Small fish swim free” approach was approach chosen by PUCT to balance investment risk and price risk
Unintended Consequences of PRR 776 • Disrupts balance between price risk and investment risk • Artificially lowers spot price • Resource Adequacy impact: Reduces ability of generators to cover their fixed costs • Reliability impact: Increases demand and lowers supply for real-time energy • Forces ERCOT to procure more RPRS • Increase uplift to loads because of a lack of direct assignment of RPRS procurement costs • Loads that short the market will have other loads pay for starting generation that was out of the money
Demand Side Fallacy • Beginning Nov. 1st, NSRS has been procured for all intervals • The $175 cap could serve as a de facto hard price cap for the real-time market • ERCOT will procure RPRS or OOMC to cover the shortfall • If RPRS or OOMC is procured, real-time price for energy often falls and undermines the price signal needed for demand response
PRR 776 Could Endanger ERCOT Energy-Only Market • ERCOT is unique • Allows loads to prudently manage their contracts up to real-time • Designed to work with successful ERCOT retail market • There is no free lunch for loads that want to chronically short the market • Greatly upsets the balance between supply and demand, price risk and investment risk • Alternatives to current market design would greatly reduce the ability of loads to manage risk through voluntary bilateral contracting
Requested Action by TAC • Remand PRR 776 to WMS on a timeline to address issues • Review tradeoffs in ancillary service pricing, uplift, reliability, and long-term resource adequacy • Work with ERCOT staff and ERCOT IMM to determine software capabilities and parameter estimates