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Estimating and Reporting Emissions from Natural Disturbances: A Methodological Approach

This document outlines a comprehensive methodology for estimating, reporting, and accounting for emissions resulting from natural disturbances (NDs) such as wildfires. It details a step-by-step approach, beginning with the identification of ND types and culminating in the calculation of baseline emissions and margins. Through numerical examples, the process emphasizes completing time series data, calculating area-specific emissions, and ensuring accuracy in emissions reporting. This guidance aims to promote transparency and consistency in emissions calculations, particularly for forestry and land management professionals.

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Estimating and Reporting Emissions from Natural Disturbances: A Methodological Approach

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  1. Estimating, reporting and accounting Natural DisturbancesSomenumericalexamples ZoltanSomogyi National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary JRC Workshop, Arona, 6 May 2014

  2. 1. Howtofillin? kt 2. BL = ? Margin= ?

  3. STEP 1 Define (in 2015 ) the types of NDs

  4. STEP 2a - 1developingtotalannualemissionsexcludingsalvagelogging: Wildfires TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (ktCO2) c c

  5. STEP 2a - 2supposewehave a time series for the calibration period for each ND type TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  6. STEP 2a - 2(includingraretypes) TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  7. STEP 2a - 2(includingraretypes)(eventhosewithoccasionaldata) TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  8. STEP 2a - 2byfillingingapsifpossible/needed… TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  9. STEP 2a - 2… create consistent and initially complete time series TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  10. STEP 2a - 3sum upallannualemissions of thetime series TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  11. STEP 2btotal area and area-specific emissions (FM) = = totalannualemissions / totalarea

  12. STEP 3-aarea-specificblfor FM: iterationby „default” method

  13. STEP 3-aarea-specificblfor FM: iterationby „default” method bl =

  14. STEP 3-afrequencydistribution of emissionsfor FM

  15. STEP 3-afrequencydistribution of emissionsfor FM bl

  16. STEP 3-aemissionsfor FM byrank

  17. STEP 3-aemissionsfor FM byrank bl

  18. STEP 3-bblfor FM: „alternative” methods • bl = 0 • bl = minimum historicalemission • bl = a valuethatwasdevelopedbyusingalternativemethods of excludingoutliers(can be uptoapproximatelytheblbythedefaultmethod)

  19. STEP 3 Projected meanareaforthe CP: FM

  20. STEP 3 calculateBLfrombl and projected meanareaforthe CP: FMdefaultmethod

  21. STEP 3-b blfor AR ifthere is no datafor ND emissionsfrom AR assume, and explain, correlationbetween ND emisisonsfor FM and AR (e.g. basedon species ratio and site conditions; e.g. emissionsfromwildfireson AR arehalf of thoseon FM) developarea-specifictime-series of emissionsfor AR calculatebland STD for AR; e.g. bl= 0.12 tCO2eqha-1

  22. STEP 3 Projected meanareaforthe CP: AR

  23. STEP 3 calculateBLfrombl and projected meanareaforthe CP: ARdefaultmethod

  24. STEP 4 Developthemargin (M) – defaultmethod, FM m= 2*STDM= m* projected AREA = = (2*0.14 tCO2eqha-1) * 43.82 Mha = 12.27 MtCO2eq

  25. STEP 4 Developthemargin (M) m=2*STD bl

  26. STEP 5ensure there is no expectation of credits/debits: • assumetotalannualemissionsforthe CP thatareequaltothose of thecalibrationperiod • calculatetotaldebits and credits • checkifthecalculated net credit = 0, inwhichcaseBLand MareOK • transparentlycheckthatBL is includedinFMRL

  27. whenindoubt, refertothe 2013KPSL Photo: IpolyerdőZrt.

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