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Climate Modeling and its Applications for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Case Study: GEF Project "Adaptation to Climate Changes

This case study explores climate models and their applications for Bosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on the GEF project "Adaptation to Climate Changes Along the Vrbas River Watershed." It discusses changes in extreme daily precipitation, future climate scenarios, and the importance of climate modeling for adaptation to climate change.

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Climate Modeling and its Applications for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Case Study: GEF Project "Adaptation to Climate Changes

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  1. Climate Modelling for Bosnia and Herzegovina and its Applications(Case Study: GEF ProjectTitled "Adaptation to Climate Changes Along the Vrbas River Watershed“) World Bank Office, Vienna, May 2016

  2. Floods in Western Balkans, May 2014

  3. Floods in BiH, May 2014

  4. Floods in BiH, May 2014

  5. Introduction • Changes in extreme daily precipitation according to different scenarios of climate changes • On the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina can be expected climate changes in the future, especially in the case of climate scenarios that do not provide for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

  6. Even if in the future the achievement of an international plan of reduction of emissions to levels that will provide a stop the increase in global mean temperature to a value of 1.5°C we can expect further change in climatic conditions • Medium anomaly for mean global temperature is 0,85 °C in relative to pre-industrial period • Increase in temperature (2,4-4 °C) • Extreme precipitations

  7. Climate Models

  8. NMMB model • Regionalization ofclimate scenario RCP8.5 (Moss et al., 2008) which is defined by IPCC Five Assesment Report (IPCC – AR5) • Horizontal resolution of model NMMB is 8 km • Reference period: 1970-2000 • Integration of future climatecover period 2011-2100 • Forlimitingcondition in integration RCP8.5 scenario,we used results of global climate model CMCC-CM (Scoccimarro et al. 2011)

  9. EBU-POM model • EBU-POM model – regionalization of A1B i A2 scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) which is defined by IPCC Forth Assesment Report (IPCC – AR4) • Horizontal resolution of EBU-POM model is 25 km • Forlimitingcondition in integration scenarios A1B i A2,we used results of global climate model ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al. 2003). • Regional climate model EBU-POM istotalrelated atmosperic-ocean model (Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, 2008; Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, 2010). • Atmosphericcomponent is Eta model; ocean component is Prinstons ocean model (POM)

  10. Climate modeling in GEF project “Adaptation to Climate Changes Along the Vrbas River Watershed” • GEF project – climate modelling according to regional model NMMB for scenario RCP 8.5 (AR5, IPCC) • Scenario RCP8.5 has high horizontal resolution (8 km) and time (6 h) • Forlimitingcondition in integration RCP8.5 scenario,we used results of global climate model CMCC-CM • Reference period: 1970-2000;integration of future climatecover period 2011-2100 • For integration of NMMB model we used ORIENTGATE project database

  11. Scenario RCP8.52011-2040 (Year)

  12. Scenario RCP8.52041-2070 (Year)

  13. Scenario RCP8.52071-2100. (Year)

  14. Scenario RCP8.52011-2040 (MAM)

  15. Scenario RCP8.52011-2040 (JJA)

  16. Scenario RCP8.52011-2041 (Year) RR20

  17. Scenario RCP8.52011-2041 (MAM) RR20

  18. Scenario RCP8.52011-2041 (JJA) RR20

  19. Changes in number of episodes with accumulated percipitations (R5D60)

  20. Expected temperature changes – period 2011-2040 (Year)

  21. Expected temperature changes – period2011-2040 (JJA)

  22. Expected temperature changes – period2011-2040(DJF)

  23. Changes in number of tropical days (30 ◦C)

  24. Changes in medium hight of accumulated snow

  25. Changes in number of days with snow cover

  26. Future of climate modelling BiH • Important to continue with researching • Create models according to IPCC methodology • Create models for Bosna River and Drina River watersheds • Permanently do climate forecasts • According to climate forecasts improve adaptation to climate change

  27. Thank you for your attention!

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