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Forecasting Dust Events in Sahelian Countries: Insights from the WMO SDS-WAS Training Course

This document outlines the findings and recommendations from the 2nd training course of the WMO SDS-WAS held in Antalya from November 21-25, 2011. It discusses dust forecasting systems, focusing on the seasonal occurrence of dust between February and May, primarily from sources in Mauritania and Algeria. The impacts of dust on health, transportation, and agriculture are analyzed alongside model outputs and observational data from ECMWF, Meteo-France, and satellite imagery. Recommendations for enhancing forecasting accuracy in Sahelian countries are provided.

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Forecasting Dust Events in Sahelian Countries: Insights from the WMO SDS-WAS Training Course

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  1. ForecastingDust in Sahelian countries MarianeDIOP KANE Senegal National MeteorologicalAgency ANAMS Email: riane_diopkane@yahoo.fr 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  2. Outline • Brief Introduction • Forecastingsystems • Example • Convlusions & recommendations 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  3. 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  4. Dust occurs mainly during the dry season, either locally or transported, with a peak between February and May • main sources are from Mauritania/ Algeria and the Bodele depression • impacts on transport through reduced visibility • impacts on health (meningitis, respiratory diseases, flu, eye infections) • impacts on agriculture through land degradation 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  5. Short term forecasting of dust Observations Global and LAM forecast model outputs: winds, MSLP, RH Satellite images: visible, RGB dust Dust forecast now + Dust model outputs 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  6. Data and Forecasting systems • Data from GTS are received trough the RETIM-SYNERGIE System and MSG PUMA-AMESD stations • ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMO model outputs, surface, upper air observations and satellite data are received 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  7. ECMWF MSLP 12/11/11 at 00Z 24H forecast 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  8. 12/11/11 at 0900Z 13/11/11 at 09Z 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

  9. Recommandations Observing stations in the sahelian regions Dust model evaluation Model intercomparison Dust Ensemble forecast model 2nd training course on WMO SDS-WAS, Antalya, 21-25 Nov. 2011

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