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Default/Preferred Parameters (see Table 1 or notes here for values)

M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0. Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs. Figure 1. Default/Preferred Parameters

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Default/Preferred Parameters (see Table 1 or notes here for values)

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  1. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 1 Default/Preferred Parameters (see Table 1 or notes here for values)

  2. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.7 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 2 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Aftershock/Foreshock Fraction = 0.0 Coupling Coefficient = 1.0 Fract MoRate to Background = 0.0

  3. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 3 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Minimum Rate (on all faults) NOTE - same result for all = Maximum Rate

  4. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.8 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 4 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Minimum Rate (on all faults) Wt On Segment Rates = 0.0

  5. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.2 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 5 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Maximum Rate (on all faults) Wt On Segment Rates = 0.0

  6. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.8 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 6 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): A-Fault Solution Type = Unsegmented Model

  7. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.9 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 7 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): A-Fault Slip Model = Characteristic (Dsr=Ds)

  8. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.9 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 8 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): A-Fault Slip Model = Uniform/Boxcar (Dsr=Dr)

  9. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 9 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): A-Fault Slip Model = WGCEP-2002 model (Dsr prop to Vs)

  10. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.2 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 10 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Mag-Area Relationship = Ellsworth-A (WGCEP, 2002, Eq 4.5a)

  11. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.2 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 11 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Mag-Area Relationship = Hanks & Bakun (2002)

  12. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.4 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 12 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Mag-Area Relationship = Somerville (2006)

  13. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.6 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 13 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): % Char vs GR = 100.0

  14. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.5 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 14 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): B-Faults Min Mag = 5.0

  15. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.1 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 15 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Connect More B Faults? = false

  16. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.7 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 16 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Include C Zones? = false

  17. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.7 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 17 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Mean Mag Correction = +0.1

  18. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.9 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 18 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Deformation Model = D2.2

  19. M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 19 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): Deformation Model = D2.3

  20. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.0 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 20 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): (BEST CASE FOUND, BUT NOT CREDIBLE?) Coupling Coefficient = 0.67 Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Minimum Rate (on all faults) A-Fault Slip Model = WGCEP-2002 model (Dsr prop to Vs) Wt On Segment Rates = 0.0 % Char vs GR = 100.0 Include C Zones? = false

  21. M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.5 Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs Figure 21 Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide): (MORE CREDIBLE?) Coupling Coefficient = 0.75 % Char vs GR = 85.0 Include C Zones? = false

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