Transition management: its origin,evolution and critique

1. Transition management:its origin,evolution and critique Jan Rotmans, Derk Loorbach, René Kemp Berlin, 19-09-2007

2. NMP4 –TM basic • a long-term orientation as framework for short-term policies. • dealing with uncertainties • keep options open • multi-domain and multi-actor approach • focus on learning and innovation • a specific role for government

3. KSI Transforum Transumo Psibouw Energy Valley Energytransition NMP4 Drift R3 Parkstad Limburg OVAM DuWoBo ICIS-Merit

4. Theoretical basis • Governance approach • Insights from • Complexity theory: dynamics of CAS • Sociology: social dynamics of change • Governance: patterns and practices of actors in networks • Applied to ’transitions’ (in social CAS) and sustainable development • Governance framework • Multi-level meta-governance approach • Set of systemic instruments

5. Problem structuring, envisioning and organizing transition-arenas Strategic (emphasis on system culture) Tactical (emphasis on system structures) Operational (emphasis on system practices) Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition-agendas Monitoring, evaluating and adapting Mobilizing actors and developing transition-experiments Governance framework

6. TM – 2.0 • complex systems’ and transitions’ thinking as analytical basis • long-term envisioning as framework for short-term action • multiple futures, images and pathways • multi-actor approaches • taking multi-level dynamics into account • creating protected (governance) niches for innovation • developing strategies to deal with the regime • focus on learning, experiment and innovation

7. Misconception 1 transition management is social engineering “transition management is not about designing a route planner, using a Tom-Tom to achieve a fixed place of determination” searching, learning, experimenting exploring new pathways in a reflexive manner

8. Misconception 2 management means command & control “transition management is not a form of planning to steer actors towards predefined, normative goals” management here means creating space for frontrunners space for: envisioning joint agenda financial incentives small-scale experiments empowering niche-players scaling up experiments

9. Misconception 3 socio-technical systems vs social systems “transition management has not been applied to socio-technical systems but to societal sectors or regions” no sailship but mobility sector; no biotechnology but agriculture not exploring the role of technologies but exploring the role of individuals and institutions

10. A typology of transitions Energy transition Revolutions Agricultural intensification (’60’s) Water transition Health insurance High aggregation From coal to gas Nuclear energy supply Biomass energy supply From sailboat to steamship High Coordination Low aggregation Teleological Low aggregation Emergent Low Coordination Solar Energy supply Biological Agriculture Wind Energy supply High aggregation ICT/internet Demographic Transition Transition to Sustainable Agriculture Economic Transition Mobility Biodiversity Civilization Globalisation • Degree of purposiveness • Degree of coordination • Level of scale (high: society / low: subsystem of society)

11. Shove & Walker Caution 1 who are managing a transition and on whose behalf? what are the everyday politics of transition management? • transition managers do not really exist • variety of transition players dealing with: strategy, new coalitions, experiments, arrangements, bureaucratic matters, guidelines for practitioners ‘tangled ball’ • government mostly initiator but not necessarily

12. Caution 2 what is to be monitored and how frequently? how to identify early warning signals? • different stages of a transition • patterns and underlying mechanisms • emergent properties of complex system • thresholds versus tipping points • reflexive monitoring • shared problem perception • sustainability visions • social learning • emerging networks • behaviour of frontrunners

13. Caution 3 how to respond to ‘unsustainable’ transitions? how to deal with the ‘death’ of undesirable systems? • persistent problems are symptoms of unsustainability • persistent problems are deeply rooted in our society • persistent problems require radical system innovations • transition involves building up new structures and decay of existing structures

14. Caution 4 overly focus on technical systems and infrastructures, is a narrow slice of a wider social systemic change • socio-technical case studies are different from transition management case studies • co-evolution of institutional, cultural, demographic, economic, ecological and technological determinants • transition management was developed as an answer to the ‘narrow’ focus of the socio-technical approach

15. Meadowcroft abstract level of social systems as angle for tm and precise orientation of those systems • persistency of system requires integrated systems approach at the highest system level • transition definition needs to be ambitious, challenging and concrete [ not ‘from carbon emitting to carbon neutral ] • divide overall theme in sub-themes • acute political struggle partly recognized

16. Meadowcroft transition management is not synonymous with governance for sustainable development • political machinery around sustainable development • Intergovernmental process [UN] • transition management not part of this • scope of transition management is limited • but it can be applied to regions and cities

17. Meadowcroft how to deal with lock-in and two-way options • core of transition management is to experiment on a small-scale to reduce large-scale risk • ‘manage’ transition experiments • deepening • broadening • scaling up • transition experiments not around technology only

18. Carbon capture and storage ‘offers no permanent solution to the climate problem but complementary to energy conservation and sustainable energy policies’ Platform ‘New Gas’ with working group ‘clean fossils’ positive advice on supporting ‘clean fossils’ four project types: • CO2 capture and storage with coal/gas-fired electricity • storing CO2 from pure point sources such as industry • CO2-storage of energy generation based on coal/biomass • CO2-storage of natural gas extracted offshore first ‘clean fossils’ experiment will start soon

19. Carbon capture and storage • SEC: Zero Emission Power Plant • NAM: CO2-storage in a nearby natural gas field • NUON: CO2-separation and use in coal/biomass power plant • Gaz de France: CO2-storage in natural gas field in North sea provisional scenarios have been developed from ‘the Netherlands as CO2-hub’ till ‘clean fossils remain marginal’

20. International context is transition management typical Dutch? NO because the underlying principles are generic because it is ad odds with the Dutch ‘polder model’ and the consensus democracy BUT Its application is context-specific and culturally bound

21. Conclusions TM is not a megalomaniac attempt to remake society TM is a new governance model for interactions between market, state and civil society to work towards a sustainability transition ‘perspective incrementalism’ for sustainability results are encouraging but no evidence that it works