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Portfolio Committee on Basic Education

03 February 2010 Dr Mafu S Rakometsi . Portfolio Committee on Basic Education. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE NSC RESULTS? WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE NSC RESULTS? Prof. John Volmink - Chairperson of Umalusi. The Class of 2009

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Portfolio Committee on Basic Education

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  1. 03 February 2010 Dr Mafu S Rakometsi Portfolio Committee on Basic Education

  2. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE NSC RESULTS? WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE NSC RESULTS? Prof. John Volmink - Chairperson of Umalusi

  3. The Class of 2009 • Second cohort of candidates to write the new National Senior Certificate (NSC) • Completely new qualification based on the National Curriculum Statement • The NSC replaces the Senior Certificate which was written at the end of 2007 and which will finally be phased out in 2011 • Some 552 073 sat for the NSC (620 192 enrolled including repeater candidates) • Approximately 60,25% of all those who have written have met the requirements of a pass

  4. Comparing the NSC with that of previous years • The NSC differs from the previous Senior Certificate both in structure as well as in grading • A critical feature of the Senior Certificate was that what determined a pass or fail was based on the aggregate score • The NSC determines a pass or fail by 40% in at least three subjects and 30% in three others • Not completely appropriate to compare overall results between the two qualifications

  5. Some criteria for comparison • The number of candidates passing • The quality of the results • The standardisation of the exam • The predicative quality of the exam for performance at HE level

  6. The number of candidates passing • Massification is a natural outcome of an education system that is non-racist, non-sexist and democratic • It is the clear that there has been a steady increase over the last decade in the number of learners who enrolled for and wrote the Senior Certificate • It is also significant that almost 66 000 of the Class of 2009 did not pass because they narrowly missed the pass mark in one or two subjects • They qualify to write supplementary examinations and if half of these candidates pass, the final pass mark may go beyond the 67% mark • The underlying philosophy of the NCS had been designed to ensure that most people achieve the minimum requirement for a pass

  7. The number of candidates passing :Trends in senior certificate enrolment and passes Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  8. The number of candidates passing :Trends in senior certificate enrolment and passes Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  9. The quality of the results • Concerns about quality has become a thorny issue and the subject of much debate albeit uninformed at most times. • SA public uses the matric results as the main indicators of quality of the education system and so there is an understandable concern about what these new results of a new qualification is saying about the current state of education • It is important however that we interrogate some of our assumptions that inform our beliefs about standards and quality

  10. Assumptions that affect our perceptionsAssumption 1 • The first assumption is that “more means less” or “more means worse” Stellenbosch University Website: “In the light of phasing out of matriculation exemption and of the distinction between subjects on the higher and standard grade, a significant number of learners will probably qualify for basic admission to university on the basis of their subject combination…..The implication is that many more learners may be able to apply for admission to Stellenbosch University. ……. With this background, it becomes clear why it is necessary for the University to have its own measure to interpret the meaning and value of the new NSC and also to generate additional information in order to make finer distinctions.”

  11. Assumption 2: TrustworthinessThe standardisation of the exam • Another assumption is that we now use vastly different methods of standardising the results • Responsibility for matriculation results has changed hands: • JMB (1918 - 1992) • SAFCERT (1992 – 2001) • Umalusi (2002 – to date) • The one constant has been the standardisation process used for the examinations. • This is crucial to: • Obtain equivalence of the standard of the SCE • Across years, subjects and examination authorities • It is also necessary in order to deliver a relatively constant product to the HE sector and to the workplace

  12. There is an assumption that we are at a much worse place today than in 1995

  13. Senior Certificate examination results Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  14. Umalusi’s research on comparisons of NSC with NATED 550 • Another assumption is that the NCS is of a lower standard than the previous curriculum. • Research completed by Umalusi into the standard of the NCS curriculum confirms that in most cases the NCS presents a greater cognitive challenge • The NCS also represents modern, updated and more demanding versions of previous subjects

  15. The NCS philosophy • It needs to be said however that the National Curriculum Statement represents different sets of standards for all • Not only does it reflect the new values embedded in the Constitution but also aims to develop learners who can respond to the growth and development of knowledge and technology and the demands of the 21st century

  16. What is the NCS? • Nationally set curriculum • Internationally benchmarked • Modern and relevant: 21st Century skills • Reflect the progressive values of the constitution • Focus on Africa and South Africa

  17. The design of the NCS ASs = leaves of the tree LOs = branches of the tree COs and DOs = trunk of the tree 10 FUNDAMENTAL VALUES = roots of the tree CONSTITUTION = soil in which the Fundamental Values are grounded

  18. Nine principles of the NCS • Social transformation • Outcomes-based education • High knowledge and skills • Integration and applied competence • Progression • Articulation and portability • Human rights, inclusivity, environmental and social justice • Valuing indigenous knowledge systems • Credibility, quality and efficiency PRINCIPLES = nutrients that feed the tree

  19. Five critical and seven developmental outcomes • Solve problems • Work with others • Manage self • Communicate early • Use science and technology • Understand world as a set of related systems • Strategies to learn • Citizenship • Cultural and aesthetic sensitivity • Education and career opportunities • Entrepreneurial opportunities

  20. Can HE Trust the NSC Results?

  21. Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  22. Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  23. Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  24. Senior Certificate examination results and HE Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  25. Senior Certificate examination results Senior Certificate examination results, all schools, 1994-2009 Sources: DoE, 2004, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2007, 2008, 2009

  26. Maintaining Standards Research Project • Purpose of the Research • To provide Umalusi’s Assessment and Statistics Committee with information on the comparability of the old NATED 550 and new National Curriculum Statement curricula, and on the comparative difficulty of the exams associated with each.

  27. Comparing curricula • In-depth policy analysis of content, skills and assessment • Design features i.e. outcomes, assessment standards, sequencing, progression, etc. • Benchmarking NCS exams • Comparison: NATED 550 HG & SG (2005-7) and 2008 & 2009 NSC exam papers • Analysis of NSC 2009 examination in correlation with SAG • Methodology

  28. Subjects Considered in 2008 • Reports are available

  29. Subjects Considered in 2009

  30. The case of Mathematics • This special role of mathematics has seen it continuously singled out in discussions on: • Curriculum reforms • Examination results • Historically 30% to 40% of secondary schools in the country simply did not offer any mathematics beyond grade nine • In 2009 all 620,000 learners took some form of mathematics

  31. Mathematics and the Class of 2009 • The Class of 2009 had 52 866 learners who passed mathematics at the 50% level or higher • The Class of 2008 had 63 038 learners who passed mathematics at the 50% level or higher • This stands in contrast to the 25,000 who passed Higher Grade mathematics in 2007 • A further 207 326 learners passed mathematical literacy, most of whom would not have done any mathematics in the previous system. • A total of 8 460 passed ML at the level of 80% or higher

  32. Math pass rate Number passing Math at different thresholds Sources: DoE, Abdridged Report on the 2008 NSC Examniation Results, December 2008; Doe, Technical Report – NSC, December 2008

  33. Trends in HG Math pass rate Number passing HG Math * Pass at 50% or higher Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Figures rounded off

  34. Trends in HG Math pass rate Number passing HG Math * Pass at 50% or higher Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Report on the National senior Certificate Examination results 2009 Figures rounded off

  35. Some remarks about Mathematics and the Class of 2008 • The cognitive challenge for mathematics for the class of 2008 was closer to the old SG level as judged by the Umalusi research panel • Furthermore there was a mismatch between the suggested cognitive demand as provided by the SAGs and the cognitive challenge in the exemplars and the final mathematics examination • Only about 46% of learners met the minimum requirements for a pass in mathematics

  36. Some remarks about mathematics and the Class of 2009 • 2009 exam was more challenging than the 2008 exam • 2009 aligned to the exam guideline • Provided a challenge at the top end • Only about 44% of learners met the minimum requirements for a pass in mathematics

  37. Cognitive demand for HG and SG Mathematics % of marks at each level of cognitive demand on HG and SG Math papers Sources: Draft Composite Exam Analysis Report: Maths, Umalusi Research, 2008

  38. The case of Physical Science • Curriculum needs urgent attention • Content overload • Selection of examinable content (especially Chemistry) • 2009 exam was of a similar standard to 2008 • Difficult for both top and lower achieving learners

  39. Physical Science and the Class of 2009 • The Class of 2009 had 45 531 learners who passed Physical Science at the 40% level or higher • The Class of 2008 had 61 480 learners who passed Physical Science at the 40% level or higher • This stands in contrast to the 28 122 who passed Higher Grade Physical Science in 2007

  40. Physical Science pass rate Number passing Physical Science at different thresholds Sources: DoE, Abdridged Report on the 2008 NSC Examniation Results, December 2008; Doe, Technical Report – NSC, December 2008

  41. Trends in HG Physical Science pass rate * Pass at 40% or higher Number passing HG Physical Science Sources: Vithal, 2008, Table constructed from data in CDE Research Report No 13; Kahn 2007, DoE Senior Certificate Technical Report 2006; DoE Senior Certificate Report 2007. Report on the National senior Certificate Examination results 2009 Figures rounded off

  42. Cognitive demand for HG and SG Physical Science % of marks at each level of cognitive demand on HG and SG Physical Science papers Sources: Draft Composite Exam Analysis Report: Maths, Umalusi Research, 2008

  43. Results of other Critical Subjects • Life Sciences • 2009 exam was more difficult for below-average candidates, but not so challenging for above-average candidates • Accounting • curriculum • NCS content more than Nated 550 content • Examination guidelines cover 40 -50 % of new disciplines • 2009 exam was of a similar standard to 2008 • difficult for both top and lower achieving learners

  44. Quality Assurance of the 2009 National Senior Certificate Examination Dr Mafu S Rakometsi – CEO of Umalusi

  45. 2009 Quality assurance processes • Moderation of the question papers; • Moderation of Site-Based Assessment (SBA); • Monitoring of the conduct of the NSC examination; • Verification of marking; and • Standardization of marks.

  46. Scope of the quality assurance processes Number of NSC 2009 question papers moderated

  47. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Moderation of SBA

  48. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Monitoring of the NSC examination: writing phase

  49. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Monitoring of the NSC examination: marking

  50. Scope of the quality assurance processes… Moderation of marking • Memoranda discussion meetings • Approved and signed off finalized memoranda/ marking guidelines for all the NSC subjects • Centralised moderation (see next slide)

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