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SHARE WP 3 Task 3.3 European crustal strain-rates INGV, NORSAR

SHARE WP 3 Task 3.3 European crustal strain-rates INGV, NORSAR. Salvatore Barba Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome. Task 3.3 European crustal strain-rates.

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SHARE WP 3 Task 3.3 European crustal strain-rates INGV, NORSAR

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  1. SHARE WP 3 Task 3.3 European crustal strain-ratesINGV, NORSAR Salvatore Barba Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome

  2. Task 3.3 European crustal strain-rates Deliverables:D3.5. Reference strain rate models for the Euro-Mediterranean region(INGV, Month 24)Comments: - Results from national efforts already available- A robust alternative to observed slip rates (almost non-existent throughout most of central and northern Europe)Problems:- Will not be able to resolve the entire study area- Procedure is not standardizedNEW!- Kinematic models will benefit areas with sufficient GPS data

  3. Data • Model properties • Thickness of Moho and Lithosphere • Average Densities • Heath flow • Calibration datasets • GPS velocities • Strain axes • Fault kinematics • Blind tests • Slip rates • Earthquake rates • Output • Slip and strain rates • Earthquake rates

  4. Time plan

  5. Composite Source (CS) • Unsegmented (no rupture ends identified/predicted) • No assumption on recurrence model

  6. Slip rates from Finite Element Modeling: Italy Barba [INGV-DPC Report, 2007] Barba et al. [GRL, 2008]

  7. Slip rates and strains from GPS: Germany & S. Scandinavia Kaiser et al. [2005] based on GPS data

  8. Slip rates and strains from thin shell modeling: Alboran Sea Jimenez-Munt et al. [2001]

  9. Slip rates from thin shell modeling: Ibero-Maghreb Negredo et al. [2002]

  10. Crustal velocities from thin shell modeling: Aegean Sea Bird [2003]

  11. Germany & S. Scandinavia Kaiser et al., 2005 Ibero-Maghreb region Negredo et al., 2002 Italy & Central Med. Barba et al., 2008 Alboran Sea Jimenez-Munt et al., 2001 Available crustal strain rate models Aegean Sea Bird, 2003

  12. Time-independent probabilities (100 years) Steven Ward, UC Santa Cruz Based on: Seismogenic Areas and 2/3 average slip rates from DISS 3.0.2

  13. Time-independent probabilities (100 years) Steven Ward, UC Santa Cruz Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, slip rates from FEM

  14. Time-dependent probabilities (30 years, Polya trees) Renata Rotondi, CNR, Milan Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, CPTI04, macroregions

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