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Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate

OPTIMAL IC. OPTIMAL MODEL ERROR. DIFFERENCE: 2-3 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate.edu. TIME EVOLUTION OF OPTIMIZED MODEL ERROR. Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate.edu. TIME EVOLUTION OF OPTIMIZED MODEL ERROR.

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Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate

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  1. OPTIMAL IC OPTIMAL MODEL ERROR DIFFERENCE: 2-3 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate.edu

  2. TIME EVOLUTION OF OPTIMIZED MODEL ERROR Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate.edu

  3. TIME EVOLUTION OF OPTIMIZED MODEL ERROR Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate.edu

  4. TIME EVOLUTION OF OPTIMIZED MODEL ERROR MODEL ERROR IS MOVING FAST Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU Zupanski@CIRA.colostate.edu

  5. 3DVAR precipitation fcst incorrect, missed heavy precipitation over Carolinas 24-h accumulated precipitation fcst3DVARNCEP STAGE IV

  6. 24-h accumulated precipitation fcst4DVAR NCEP STAGE IV • Amount and location of 4DVAR precip fcst correct

  7. In 4DVAR, precip assimilation and model error adjustment have a profound positive impact 24-h accumulated precipitation difference:4DVAR (precip + model err) - 4DVAR (basic)24-h fcst 36-h fcst

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