1. COSYSMO 2.0 Workshop Summary(held Monday, March 17th 2008)USC CSSE Annual Research ReviewMarch 18, 2008 Jared Fortune

2. Agenda • Topics covered • Overview of COSYSMO • Summary of COSYSMO 2.0 improvements • Reuse (overview) • Integration between SWE and SysE • Risk modeling (overview) • Assumption of linearity in cost drivers • Modeling organizational factors in space systems • Best practice guidance • Cost drivers vs. scale factors • Cost driver impact survey results • Recursive levels of design • Joint meeting with SoS cost estimation group

3. Attendees (18) • Jeff Allen (Lockheed Martin)* • Barry Boehm (USC) • Jim Cain (BAE) • Jared Fortune (USC) • Gary Hafen (Lockheed Martin) • JoAnn Lane (USC) • Dan Ligett (Softstar) • Miles Nesman (Boeing) • Ali Nikolai (SAIC) • Cynthia Nikolai (Notre Dame) • Elizabeth O’Donnell (Boeing) • Garry Roedler (Lockheed Martin) • Rick Selby (Northrop Grumman) • Howard Schimmdler (Lockheed Martin)* • Ricardo Valerdi (MIT)* • Gan Wang (BAE) • Darryl Webb (Aerospace) • Marilee Wheaton (Aerospace) * Via Phone

4. Recommended COSYSMO 2.0 Improvements • Reuse • Integration of SwE & SysE estimation • Assumption of linearity in COSYSMO cost drivers • Effect of cost drivers and scale factors • Number of recursive levels of design • Risk modeling • Establishing best practice guidance • Consideration of SoS scope in COSYSMO • Estimation in Operation & Maintenance Phase • Requirements volatility

5. Reuse • What is the effect of reuse in estimating systems engineering size/effort? • On-going efforts by Valerdi, BAE, and Lockheed • Definitions: New, Modified, Adopted, Deleted, Managed • Incorporate reuse into COSYSMO • Collect data to obtain statistical significance • Opportunistic vs. systematic reuse • Select exemplar program to support reuse definitions • Assist in development of best practice guide • Ensure consistency across organizations

6. SWE and SysE Integration • What is the overlap between COCOMO II and COSYSMO? • Not model integration, scope overlap • WBS element ownership exercise • Attempt at capturing SysE effort • System, Software, Supportability, PEM; in COSYSMO or not • COSYSMO data covers a broader scope that textbook definition of “systems engineering” • Sometimes to distinguish who is responsible (funds) specific WBS elements • Areas of overlap

7. Risk Modeling • How can risk associated with the COSYSMO estimate be quantified? • On-going effort at Lockheed with COSYSMOR • Provide Low, Likely, High estimates • Presented one methodology, will be undergoing peer review • Illustrated need for best practice guide to reduce unnecessary (incorrect) risk assessments • To be incorporated into COSYSMO 2.0 baseline (Valerdi book)

8. Linearity Across the Life Cycle • Do all cost drivers have the same impact across the lifecycle? • Values of some drivers may not exist in all phases • Single “step” between driver values can be very large • Raised possibility of weighting drivers • Subgroup will discuss further, report results at next meeting

9. Modeling Organizational Factors • What are the quantifiable organizational issues that drive cost? • Help explain why a predicted cost is reasonable • Highlight potential biases in estimates • Presented data from STS and ISS • Results provided strong indicators that program complexity and organizational structure are major cost drivers

10. Best Practice Guidance • How can misuse of the COSYSMO cost drivers be avoided? • Correct assessment of values for cost drivers • Limit underestimation • Reuse • Ensure consistency across programs • Created Committee • Will present results at next meeting

11. Cost vs. Size Driver Correlation • Can some of the cost drivers become scale factors in the cost estimating relationship calibrated by the new data set? • Presented results of October 2007 survey • Distributed new survey • Result: “it depends”

12. Recursive Levels • How can the integration complexity of system elements one layer below the system-of-interest be operationalized? • Generated a lot of discussion, but a long way to go on guidance • Attempt to incorporate in best practice guide

13. Prioritization