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Dropout Prevention

Dropout Prevention. SouthCoast. in the. Choosing a New Path To Economic Prosperity. “. In the 21 st Century, the EDUCATION and SKILLS of the workforce [will] end up being the dominant COMPETITIVE WEAPON. ”. - Lester C. Thurow.

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Dropout Prevention

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  1. Dropout Prevention SouthCoast in the Choosing a New Path To Economic Prosperity

  2. “ In the 21st Century, the EDUCATIONandSKILLSof the workforce [will] end up being the dominantCOMPETITIVEWEAPON. ” - Lester C. Thurow

  3. THE SOUTHCOAST REGION HAS A LONG HISTORY OF MANUFACTURING & ECONOMIC SUCCESS Fall River New Bedford  Between 1905 and 1920, the city had more than 100 operating mills, housing 4 million spindles, with 30,000 employees and a weekly payroll over $1 million.  New Bedford became one of the world’s wealthiest cities through a combination of manufacturing and whaling.  By the end of the 19th century, the city stood 3rd in the nation with regard to the number of spindles in operation and 4th for the number of looms in operation.  In 1953, the city ranked 4th in the nation for textile production.  By 1940, nearly 20% of Fall River’s workers were employed in the garment industry.  By 1910, the city had 32 cotton manufacturing plants employing over 30,000 people.

  4. GOOD WAGES FOR WORKERS WITH LOWER EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Average weekly wage by industry sector (Massachusetts, 2007)(Source: Massachusetts Budget & Policy Center, The State of Working Massachusetts, 2007) $2,200 $2,008 Growing Industry $2,000 Declining Industry $1,800 $1,535 No Industry Growth or Loss $1,423 $1,600 $1,339 $1,400 $1,082 $1,063 $1,200 $1,018 $922 $824 $1,000 $800 $532 $600 $412 $400 $200 $0 All Industries Other Services Education/Health Professional/Business Government Construction/Mining Financial Activities Information Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Trade/Transportation

  5. COMPAREDTOTHE STATEANDTHE RESTOF THE NATION, MANUFACTURING CENTERSIN THE SOUTHCOAST REGION HAVE EXPERIENCED GREATER LOSSESIN MANUFACTURING Manufacturing Jobs in Fall River & New Bedford (2001 – 2007)(Source: Massachusetts Labor & Workforce Development, Employment & Wages ES-202 database) 19,000 Total Job Loss = 4,866 18,000 A loss of 25.92% from 2001 to 2007 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

  6. THE TRANSITION TO A KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY IS LEAVING THE SOUTHCOAST REGION BEHIND  Fall River and New Bedford continue to depend on a highly vulnerable manufacturing sector for nearly 20% of their total employment.  In light of national and state trends in manufacturing, the continued reliance on this sector exposes our cities and our region to further uncertainty.  The inevitable transition to a new economy will require higher levels of educational attainment, which the SouthCoast is not fully prepared to meet.  Between 1980 and 2000, the gap in per-capita income between Greater Boston and the rest of the state increased from 18 percent to 28 percent.

  7. ALIGNING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OBJECTIVESTO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ASPIRATIONSIS NECESSARY FOR GROWTH  Anecdotal evidence suggests that companies in new, knowledge-based industries are utilizing educational attainment data in decision-making.  In a survey of developers/investors conducted by Northeastern University, the “availability of appropriate labor in a region” ranked 3rd out of 40 decision factors; ahead of taxes, infrastructure, and permitting.  The Greater New Bedford Industrial Foundation reports only one of their member businesses will hire high school dropouts and that among its members, educational attainment/dropout rates are their #1 concern relative to future growth.

  8. Dropping out of school in the South Coast has gone from being a CHRONIC PROBLEMto anACUTE CRISIS.

  9. THE SOUTHCOAST DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP TAKES ACTION In September 2008, recognizing the obstacle that low educational attainment presents to further regional economic growth, the SCDP commissioned this study to assess the regional impact of school dropout rates and evaluate and recommend the best strategies for implementing a regional dropout prevention plan. Project Scope:  Research, review, and analyze economic and educational attainment data and trends to inform strategies and shape the “call to action”  Development of a process to determine the top 4 to 6 best/most effective dropout prevention strategies for the SouthCoast  Integrate into an overall regional plan for implementation that calls for stakeholder participation, leadership, support for and accountability from our schools, and benchmarking and evaluation to measure progress

  10. LIMITATIONSONTHE RESEARCH  Limited review of adult workforce issues  No review of the MCAS’s impact on regional dropout  Most recent U.S. Census data from 2000 • Massachusetts SIMS data only in use since the 2001-02 school year. As such, data on 4-year cohort rates using the SIMS tracking system currently exists for only the last three school years.

  11. A LOOKAT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVELS IN THE SOUTHCOAST’S TWO PRINCIPAL CITIES(2000) (Source: U.S. Census Bureau) FALL RIVER (GENERAL POPULATION)

  12. A LOOKAT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVELSIN THE SOUTHCOAST’S TWO PRINCIPAL CITIES(2000) (Source: U.S. Census Bureau) NEW BEDFORD (GENERAL POPULATION)

  13. A LOOKAT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVELSIN THE SOUTHCOAST’S TWO PRINCIPAL CITIES(2000) (Source: U.S. Census Bureau) FALL RIVER & NEW BEDFORD LABOR FORCE (LABOR FORCE – 18 TO 64 YEAR OLDS)

  14. SOUTHCOAST EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVELS (2000) A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

  15. SOUTHCOAST EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVELS (2000) (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

  16. A BROADER LOOK AT EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN MASSACHUSETTS (Source: A Framework for Action: The State Regional Economic Development Strategy, Massachusetts Executive Office of Housing and Economic Development) EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PERSONS 25 AND OLDER, 2006

  17. ARE WE PREPARED? • Using the 2008-2009 Occupational Outlook Handbook published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the research team identified 38 careers in the fields of science, financial services, healthcare, information technology/computer information systems, and media that can be part of what is considered today’s knowledge-based economy • 34 of the 38 careers required at least a high school diploma for entry, • 32 careers required more than a high school diploma, and • 19 of the 38 careers required some form of post-secodary education • Among the 19 careers that require at least an Associate’s degree or higher for entry, 18 of them are experiencing average to very fast growth.

  18. IMPACTSOF DROPPING OUTON THE INDIVIDUAL  Limits income and job opportunities  Increased likelihood of being underemployed  Increased likelihood of dependence on government assistance  Higher rates of incarceration  Higher rates of teenage pregnancy  Increased likeliness of becoming homeless  Increased likeliness of becoming single parents  Reduced likeliness of volunteerism and becoming civically engaged  Denied access to higher education  Higher rates of premature death

  19. IMPACTSOF DROPPING OUTON THE REGION  Greater difficulty in supporting business investment/expansion  Smaller wage base  Higher rates of unemployment  Higher rates of poverty  Impact on overall regional educational attainment  Lower percentage of labor force participation  Higher rates of crime and youth violence  Greater need for human and social services  Less engaged populace

  20. LOST WAGE OPPORTUNITIESTO THE REGION DUETO DISPARITIESIN DROPOUT RATES According to the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University; dropouts in Massachusetts make $9,249 less than high school graduates In the SouthCoast, 31.8% of the population over 25 has no high school diploma In Massachusetts, 15.2% of the population over 25 has no high school diploma If 25,112of the SouthCoast’s dropouts in the labor force had a high school diploma, it is estimated that the region could gain anestimated$232,260,888 in wages annually. 25,112 x $9,249 (national difference in annual earnings) $232,260,888

  21. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (Source: Massachusetts Department of Workforce Development)

  22. POVERTY RATES (1999) (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

  23. TAXPAYERS ALSO BEARTHE COSTOF DROPOUT In the SouthCoast there are 77,348individuals (over the age of 25) with no high school credential If we apply the SouthCoast’s labor participation rate of 62.2%,we can approximate 48,110 individuals (over the age of 25) who are part of the labor force and have no high school credential. According to a model developed by Northeastern University, individuals with no high school credential have a net fiscal impact on society in the amount of -$5,300. 48,110 (labor force participants with no high school credential) x -$5,300 (fiscal impact per individual) -$254,983,000

  24. HOW DROPOUT & GRADUATION RATES ARE CALCULATED Event Dropout Rate:  Estimates the percentage of high school students who left high school between the beginning of one school year and the beginning of the next without earning a high school diploma or an equivalent degree (such as a GED) Status Dropout Rate:  Reports the percentage of individuals in a given age range who are not in school and have not earned a high school diploma or equivalent credential, irrespective of when they dropped out.  This rate focuses on an overall age group as opposed to individuals in the U.S. school system, so it can be used to study general population issues. Cohort Graduation Rate: Tracks a cohort of students from 9th grade through high school and represents the percentage of that cohort that graduates within a certain amount of time (recent data is available for four-year and five-year intervals).

  25. STUDENT INFORMATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SIMS) In use since the 2001-02 school year. SIMS assigns each student enrolled in a Massachusetts public school district a unique numeric identifier. When a student transfers from one public school district to another in-state district without completing the necessary paperwork with the school he/she is leaving, their SIMS information is accessed at the time of registration with the new district and they are listed as a transfer rather than a dropout.  Does not apply to students who transfer to private schools or out-of-state school districts Massachusetts Department of Education data on 4-year cohort rates using the SIMS tracking system currently exists for the 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08 school years.

  26. SOUTHCOAST 4-YEAR COHORT DROPOUT RATES(2008) (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education) * Acushnet students can choose to attend public high school in either Fairhaven or New Bedford ** Marion, Mattapoisett, and Rochester students attending public high school all attend Old Rochester Regional

  27. SOUTHCOAST 4-YEAR COHORT GRADUATION RATES(2008) (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education) Below State Average Above State Average

  28. SOUTHCOAST 4-YEAR COHORT DROPOUT RATES(2007) (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education) * Acushnet students can choose to attend public high school in either Fairhaven or New Bedford ** Marion, Mattapoisett, and Rochester students attending public high school all attend Old Rochester Regional

  29. SOUTHCOAST 4-YEAR COHORT GRADUATION RATES(2007) (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education) Below State Average Above State Average

  30. SOUTHCOAST 4-YEAR COHORT DROPOUT RATES(2006) (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education) * Acushnet students can choose to attend public high school in either Fairhaven or New Bedford ** Marion, Mattapoisett, and Rochester students attending public high school all attend Old Rochester Regional

  31. SOUTHCOAST 4-YEAR COHORT GRADUATION RATES(2006) (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education) Below State Average Above State Average

  32. ANNUAL DROPOUT RATESIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education) * Acushnet students can choose to attend public high school in either Fairhaven or New Bedford ** Marion, Mattapoisett, and Rochester students attending public high school all attend Old Rochester Regional

  33. 4-YEAR COHORT GRADUATION & DROPOUT RATESIN THEGATEWAY CITIES(2008) (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education)

  34. AVERAGE CLASS SIZE & PER-PUPIL SPENDINGIN GATEWAY CITY HIGH SCHOOLS (Source: Average class size reported by each school district, Per-Pupil Spending reported by the MA Department of Education)

  35. DEMOGRAPHICSIN GATEWAY CITYSCHOOLS (Source: Massachusetts Department of Education)

  36. PER-CAPITA INCOMEIN GATEWAY CITIES(2005-2007) (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-year Estimates for 2005-2007)

  37. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTOF THE ADULT POPULATIONIN GATEWAY CITIES(POPULATION OVER 25 YEARS OF AGE) (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-year Estimates for 2005-2007))

  38. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTAND DROPOUT RATESIN GATEWAY CITIES (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-year Estimates for 2005-2007))

  39. ASSESSING RISK LEVEL IN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS Common Indicators and Appropriate Measures

  40. ASSESSING RISK LEVELIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS Poor Attendance: 2003-2007 Attendance Rates (5-Year Average)

  41. ASSESSING RISK LEVELIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS Retention/Overage for Grade: 2002-2006 Retention Rates (4-year average)

  42. ASSESSING RISK LEVELIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOLDISTRICTS Low Achievement: 2006-2008 MCAS ELA Summary (3-year)

  43. ASSESSING RISK LEVELIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS Low Achievement: 2006-2008 MCAS MATH Summary (3-year)

  44. ASSESSING RISK LEVELIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS Low Achievement: 2006-2008 MCAS SCI Summary (3-year)

  45. Misbehavior/Behavioral Problems: 2002-2007 Suspension Rates (5-year average)

  46. ASSESSING RISK LEVELIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS Low Socioeconomic Status: 2002-2003 to 2006-2007 Proportion of Low-Income Students

  47. RISK LEVELIN SOUTHCOAST SCHOOL DISTRICTS • Risk Level Index is based on the following variables: • Attendance Rate • Number of Retentions • MCAS MATH Scores • MCAS ELA Scores • MCAS SCI Scores • Number of In-School Suspensions • Number of Out-of-School Suspensions • Number of Low Income Students

  48. AS PARTOF THE URBAN INITIATIVE’S WORK, STAKEHOLDER SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED WITH SCHOOL DISTRICTS, MEMBERS OF THE SOUTHCOAST DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP, AND OTHER COMMUNITYAND CIVIC LEADERS  An initial mail survey was conducted among the 11 school districts  A subsequent and more detailed survey regarding dropout prevention efforts were conducted in-person or over the phone with superintendents and dropout prevention staff members.

  49. EXEMPLARY PROGRAMS:  SMILES Mentoring  Case High School  Fall River’s Community Learning Center at the Carlton M. Viveiros Elementary School  New Bedford Public Schools Strategic Plan  Alternative Programs:  New Bedford’s Twilight School  BMC Durfee Evening School  Somerset Community Evening School

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