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Six Rules for Effective Forecasting

GEN0190n.ppt. 2. The myth of accurate prediction. Accurate prediction is possible only in a world in which:- events are preordained- the present does not influence the future In the real world- nothing is preordained- what we do in the present affects how events unfold, often in

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Six Rules for Effective Forecasting

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Presentation Transcript

    1. Six Rules for Effective Forecasting Based on the article Six Rules for Effective Forecasting Based on the article by: Paul Saffo Harvard Business Review, July-August 2007

    2. GEN0190n.ppt 2 The myth of accurate prediction

    3. GEN0190n.ppt 3 Understanding forecasting

    4. GEN0190n.ppt 4 Rule 1: Define a cone of uncertainty

    5. GEN0190n.ppt 5 Rule 2: Handle the S Curve carefully

    6. GEN0190n.ppt 6 Rule 3: Embrace the things that do not fit

    7. GEN0190n.ppt 7 Rule 4: Hold strong opinions weakly

    8. GEN0190n.ppt 8 Rule 5: Look back twice as far as you look forward

    9. GEN0190n.ppt 9 Rule 6: Know when not to make a forecast

    10. GEN0190n.ppt 10 Conclusion

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