Where Next for Climate Action?

1. Where Next for Climate Action? Addressing Social Justice, Ecological Restoration and Climate Safety in a world of limited resources introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, core member biofuelwatch, climate and environmental campaigner, Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council Where Next for Climate Action?

2. Social : Environmental : Indigenous The only way we are going to put out the environmental fire is to get on the social justice bus and heal our wounds, because in the end, there is only one bus. Where Next for Climate Action?

3. Now! Topics • The science is real – what are the issues? Climate Change (CC) • Carbon sinks • Runaway climate change • Climate Stabilisation • Community action • International/national/local • Getting on the ‘one bus’ Climate Change Resource Depletion Peak Oil Biosink destruction Where Next for Climate Action?

4. Climate Change • Global average predicted between 1.7 ˚C and 6.8˚C by 2100 (IPCC(4) 2007) • Will be unevenly spread – eg some parts of Africa and poles twice this • Water resources decimated • Food supplies • Flooding • Environmental refugees • Strange climate events • Tropical cyclone Catarina, Brazil – March 2004 • Norfolk Sea Surges Where Next for Climate Action?

5. How warming might happen? yarqvy – Source BBC Website Where Next for Climate Action?

6. IPCC 4th assessment Hansen “safe” level Where Next for Climate Action?

7. 2006 2005 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions • Atmospheric CO2 – growing 35% more quickly than <2000 • 18% decline of natural sinks • 17% - more fossil fuel use GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Chris Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Skee Houghton, Gregg Marland, Mike Raupach, Erik Buitenhuis, Nathan Gillett 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Where Next for Climate Action? Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

8. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt Non-linear effect? Where Next for Climate Action?

9. Global Energy Projections, IEA, 2007 71% by 2030 Where Next for Climate Action?

10. Emission sources • Deforestation, agriculture and peat • Anthropogenic energy From Stern Report Where Next for Climate Action?

11. Wetlands / Peat Kalimantan: Peatland forest on fire Pristine peat swamp forest, Sumatra. Where Next for Climate Action?

12. Rainforest Rainforest fires Tropical rainforest Where Next for Climate Action?

13. Runaway Climate Change • Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt • Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon sinks • Siberian Tundra melt (Methane) • Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates • Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet • Melting / break up of West Antartica Ice Sheet • Switching off of Gulf Stream Where Next for Climate Action?

14. Permaforst Carbon sinks: Permafrost Carbon releases when it melts Where Next for Climate Action?

15. Where Next for Climate Action?

16. Positive feedbacks – not on political radar • IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically conservative. • Are constrained by what is politically and economically acceptable. • Are also some two years out of date when published. • Dynamic positive feedbacks – emerging science during last 2 years • All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG) trying to highlight Where Next for Climate Action?

17. How much warming / moreghgs is safe? None! • We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago Where Next for Climate Action?

18. The issue is not can we stop climate change BUT can we stop catastopic runaway climate change? Rest of World India China Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA Where Next for Climate Action?

19. What could happen • 185 million people sub-Saharan Africa (3x UK population) could die of disease. (Christian Aid report) • Drought/soil erosion lead to many areas going into “structural famine” • 800 million people malnourished now • Could increase to 2bn • Millions starving to death Where Next for Climate Action?

20. Food vs (bio) Fuel • Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDCs) ::Social unrest / food riots • Feed prices  • Huge industry denial • Food sovereignty • Best land taken for agrofuels • Even import poor quality food • 16 million starve per 1% commodity price rise Where Next for Climate Action?

21. 1.5 m. rise in Bangladesh … But what we would desperately like to rely more on is decisive international action to stop this threat. Sabihuddin Ahmed High Commissioner of Bangladesh to UK, Sept 25th 2006 Where Next for Climate Action?

22. Indigenous peoples • Crisis of land displacement, food sovereignty, climate/biofuel refugees, deforestation, loss of traditional ways • Land grabbing by large corporations • See ‘climate change’ policy in North as problem as it is causing social injustice • Need to get on same bus! Where Next for Climate Action?

23. Where we are at • IPCC behind latest science • Feedbacks not widely understood • Sinks showing early signals of loosing efficacy? • Sinks being destroyed • Business as usual paradigm prevails • International negotiations – no teeth, too slow • Indigenous and dispossessed – disempowered, widening poverty gap Where Next for Climate Action?

24. What to do? • Protect all carbon sinks • URGENT Moratorium on all old-growth deforestation, peat-land burning and swampland drainage • URGENT decarbonisation of global economy • Post-Kyoto with deep cut “Contraction and convergence” model • LOCAL ACTION AND BLESSED UNREST • Unite North-South, Social Action and Ecological protection Where Next for Climate Action?

25. Protect all carbon sinks URGENT Moratorium on all old-growth deforestation, peat-land burning and swampland drainage • Must be protected against destruction for timber, food growing and biofuels development Where Next for Climate Action?

26. Ecological restoration • UNFCCC must act at Bali • Where can big emissions be cut quickly and cost effectively? • CUT deforestation - 2Gt CO2 / yr • STOP SE ASIA Peat fires – 1.3Gt CO2 / yr • Regenerate peat lands – 0.5Gt • 8% of current GHGs Where Next for Climate Action?

27. Ecological Impacts • Massive land use change • Renton Righelato and Dominick V. Spracklen, Science, August 2007 • Ecological restoration and forestation would sequester 2-9 more carbon than biofuels Where Next for Climate Action?

28. Contraction and Convergence Business as Usual (BAU) Emissions are contracting Rest of World India China Converging to per capita level Annex 1 (non-OECD) OECD minus USA USA Continue to contract to post carbon era 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 Where Next for Climate Action?

29. UNDP Report – pre-Bali Where Next for Climate Action?

30. Changing UK situation? White paper 13/3/07 • 26%-32%“ by 2020 (c.2.1-2.6% annum) • 60% by 2050 • Govt. wants only 5 year targets • Brown not interested in environment • IPPR report at least 80% cuts needed • UNDP pre-Bali at least 80% cuts • George Monbiot – 90% by 2030 • GM now thinking 100% Where Next for Climate Action?

31. There is NO 2% excuse ! • Phil Woolas, Minister of Climate Change said on 20th September “we see that as much as 15% of world carbon emissions are a direct result of UK economic activity both at home and abroad. “ • Global spread of ‘City business interests’ • Imports from China etc – our dependence on their economy AND THEIR EMISSIONS • For the full context of this, see : http://tinyurl.com/ywoo44 Where Next for Climate Action?

32. UNDP Where Next for Climate Action?

33. Changing EU situation? • EU 10/3/07 • Binding unilateral target for a 20% reduction in greenhouse gases for the EU by 2020 (c. 1.5% per annum) • BUT • Based on ‘business as usual‘ energy growth • has destructive biofuel policy • and Nuclear etc • Merkel UNFCCC bargaining • 30% greenhouse gas reductions on 1990 levels for developed countries by 2020 if other big polluters come on board (c. 2.3% per annum) Where Next for Climate Action?

34. Changing US situation? • Schwarzenegger : California 2006 c. 1% annum • Boxer Bill 80% by 2050 Where Next for Climate Action?

35. UK can lead • Internationally – at UNFCCC, Bali • Germany taking a strong line • US! – We do have the wherewithal to take on this challenge, and restructure our economy and ways of living to make deep cuts to our emissions.  People have managed such change before – for example during the second world war.  I already see people starting to do this at every level from the community to local government to national government to industry etc.  Its time to stop arguing about the need to do it and just get on with it.  Where Next for Climate Action?

36. Environmental Action Hierarchy International/Global Continental National Regional Shire District Personal/Community • UN, Post-Kyoto • EU/US/India/China • Energy policy • Carbon trading • Sustainable Development • Agriculture • Localised planning • Localised economy • Participatory democracy • Local Action • Transition towns Where Next for Climate Action?

37. Decarbonisation Where Next for Climate Action?

38. Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Current EU energy policy Reduce vehicle emissions by 50% - smaller, more efficient vehicles 90% carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY! Reduce journeys – planning, modal shift, decouple transport from economy Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ? 1990 2000 2010 2020 Where Next for Climate Action?

39. Descending the energy emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Current EU energy policy Reduce waste – energy saving in homes - insulation 90% carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY! Reduce demand – use energy more carefully, put on a sweater etc Reduce waste in generation Decarbonise – renewables. Decentralised best, but some large scaleneedfor base loads etc 1990 2000 2010 2020 Where Next for Climate Action?

40. Waste in current system • 60-70% of natural gas and coal burnt goes up chimney and is loss in transmission. • Decentralised energy • Combined heat and power (CHP) • Single home, city community, industrial area y94hdk – About the WADE economic model Where Next for Climate Action?

41. Decentralised energy Where Next for Climate Action?

42. Can it be done? • Denmark : 50% electricity decentralised • Holland : 40% • 15,000 CHP systems already exist in UK – hospitals, universities, factories • BUT need much more : UK is near bottom of EU table for implementation yfc4n9 – Combined Heat and Power Association Where Next for Climate Action?

43. Big scale renewables • On shore wind • 50% increase in 2006 = 511Mw=c.0.5 nuclear power station • Key to Government meeting 2010 renewables target • Planning system delays • Off shore wind • Will be big provider after 2010 Where Next for Climate Action?

44. CSP – Concentrated Solar Power Where Next for Climate Action?

45. Microgeneration PV Panels at Greenhouse, Norwich • Solar water heating • Small scale wind • BEWARE! • Solar energy generation – photovoltaics (PV) • Ground source heat pumps • Biomass CHP • Problem/challenges - Retrofitting? Where Next for Climate Action?

46. Structural Alternatives • Localising economies • de-globalising Food/Agriculture/Production • Sustainable/affordable housing • eliminate fuel poverty • Community Waste Programmes • Zero Waste • Ecoliteracy/eco-education • Appropriate consumption • Non-violence/conflict resolution • Restoration projects • Local renewable energy projects 87fbm – Incineration Or Something Sensible ? 8gj8c - Center for Ecoliteracy Where Next for Climate Action?

47. Transition Towns Where Next for Climate Action?

48. CRAGS – Carbon Reduction Action Groups One tonners Where Next for Climate Action?

49. Livestock’s long shadow • Impacts on water, land degradation, climate change (18% of emissions) • Need for 50% less meat and 50% less meat industry products • Meat consumption going up quickly in India and China (part of current high food commodity prices) • Need for contraction and convergence of animal husbandry? Where Next for Climate Action?

50. JOIN THE BLESSED UNREST Where Next for Climate Action?