Ageing and Health in the EU

1. Ageing and Health in the EU N. Ahn, R. Génova, J. A. Herce and J. Pereira Helsinki, 12-14 June 2003 ENEPRI - FEDEA Bio-Demographic aspects of ageing – The AGIR project

2. Structure of the presentation: • Population, births and mortality since 1950 • Longevity • Lifecourses • Health and disability • Ageing and health • Concluding comments

3. 1. Population I

4. 1. Population II

5. 1. Population III

6. 1. Births I

7. 1. Births II

8. 1. Mortality I

9. 1. Mortality II

10. 1. Mortality III

11. 2. Longevity I

12. 2. Longevity II

13. 2. Longevity III

14. 2. Longevity IV

15. 3. Lifecourses

16. 4. Health and disability I

17. 4. Health and disability II

18. 4. Health and disability III

19. 4. Health and disability IV

20. 4. Health and disability V

21. 4. Health and disability VI

22. 4. Health and disability VII

23. 4. Health and disability VIII

24. 5. Ageing and health I

25. 5. Ageing and health II Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Males at 15)

26. 5. Ageing and health III Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Females at 15)

27. 5. Ageing and health IV • Two scenarios for Adjusted LEs: • CRM or “Constant Relative Morbidity: It implies keeping constant the ratio of years lived in good health (or bad health or free of disability) to the number of years lived (Stable weights) • CAM or “Constant Absolute Morbidity: It implies associating any gain in life expectancy to an equal number of years lived in good health (or bad health or free of disability) (Compression Hypothesis)

28. 5. Ageing and health V

29. 5. Ageing and health VI

30. 6. Concluding comments • European populations have been ageing since the first demographic transition ended at the begining of XX century. The second demographic transition has made ageing more apparent. Survival has increased considerably and will be the leading driver of future ageing. • Longevity has been the result of compressed mortality rather than of extended limit to human life. Whether life endurance increases steadily, survivors ratios at extreme ages have increased manifold in last decades. • Lifecourses have evolved thus that working years are becoming closer to years since leaving activity what heralds a much distorted future balance between assets and liabilities of any kind both at individual and social levels.

31. 6. Concluding comments • Assessing health status is a puzzle. Countries compare badly and time trends are difficult to discern from either national health surveys or the ECHP. However, there is a general pattern of health or disability adjusted life years keeping track with gains in unadjusted life expectancies. • A sofisticated projection of adjusted life expectancies cannot be done on the basis of the data available. Rather what can be done is to build scenarios that do not contradict plainly observed trends. Both CRM or CAM scenarios show that as life expectancy of Europeans increases few more years free of health or disability impairments could also be at their hand.