The 2012 Presidential Election

1. Claire Oaks – Barlett, IL April 2, 2012 Artemus Ward Dept. of Political Science Northern Illinois University aeward@niu.edu The 2012 Presidential Election

2. Introduction • The 2012 presidential election featured a relatively vulnerable incumbent Democratic president who was unchallenged for re-nomination. • The election also featured a presumptive Republican nominee whose party was deeply dissatisfied with him throughout the nominating process. • The backdrop was an ongoing economic recession and an electorate dissatisfied with the direction America is headed in as characterized by both Tea Party and Occupy movements.

3. Getting the GOP Nomination • In order to win the party nomination, candidates compete for delegates who are pledged to vote for them at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL in late August 2012. • There will be 2,286 delegates chosen, and a candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes at the convention to win the nomination. • 1,944 bound delegates are allocated to the candidates at caucuses and primaries or later at local conventions. • 222 unbound elected delegates cannot commit themselves to any candidate before they are elected as National Convention Delegates at their local conventions. • 120 unbound RNC delegates or “super delegates” are not a part of the primary process but do vote at the convention.

4. GOP Dissatisfaction with Romney • The 2012 Republican nominating process was defined by Republican dissatisfaction with the presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. • Romney was the early favorite for three reasons: he raised the most money, had the most extensive campaign organization, and have garnered the most important early endorsements from influential Republicans. • Yet at one time or another, most of his challengers polled ahead of him during the nominating process: Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rich Santorum. • But Romney was able to sustain his campaign through each candidate’s ascendance and he ultimately won more primaries and pulled ahead in delegates while other dropped out.

5. The Republicans Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson withdrew to run for the Libertarian Party nomination. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty ended his campaign after finishing third in the Iowa straw poll. Rep. Thad McCotter of Michigan failed to be invited to any of the debates, suffering "Death by media".

6. The Republicans Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer withdrew to run for the Americans Elect and Reform Party nominations. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota won the Iowa Straw Poll but finished 6th in the Iowa Caucuses with only 5% of the vote and withdrew. Business executive Herman Cain suspended his campaign after media reports of alleged sexual misconduct.

7. The Republicans Rep. Ron Paul of Texas sought the Republican nomination in 2008 and in 2012 finished 3rd in Iowa with 21% and 2nd in New Hampshire with 23%. Former Utah Governor Jon Hutsman invested heavily in New Hampshire. After finishing third with 17%, he withdrew. Texas Governor Rick Perry withdrew after placing 5th in Iowa with 10% and last in New Hampshire with 1%.

8. The Republicans Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the frontrunner from the start winning Iowa and New Hampshire along with FL, NV, ME, AZ, MI, WY, WA, AK, ID, MA, OH, VT, VA, HI, PR, and IL. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (GA) won the South Carolina and Georgia primaries. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum was the last Republican to poll ahead of Romney and, as a result, “peaked” just as the primary season was getting underway. He tied Romney in Iowa and won in CO, MO, MN, ND, OK, TN, KS, AL, MS, and LA.

9. GOP Race for the Nomination Note: Totals as of April 1, 2012. 1,144 needed to win.

10. The Democrats • Barack Obama – President of the United States. • There are a number of others who get zero media coverage including: • Jim Rogers – (top) retired college professor and perennial political candidate had received 15,540 popular votes, earning three delegates through March 2012. • Randall Terry – (middle) pro-life activist and founder of Operation Rescue had received 22,734 popular votes as of March 10th, 2012 and had qualified for seven delegates in the Oklahoma Primary, where he bested Obama in the vote total in several counties. • John Wolfe, Jr. –(bottom) attorney and perennial political candidate from TN, he won a minimum of three delegates in the LA primary.

11. Campaign Finance: Super PACs • Political Action Committees (PACs) raise money to support candidates and issues. • The 2010 election marked the rise of the Super PAC -- officially known as "independent-expenditure only committees". • Super PACs raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups -- a practice upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court in its 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. • In that decision, Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the 5-4 majority: “If the First Amendment has any force, it prohibits Congress from fining or jailing citizens, or associations of citizens, for simply engaging in political speech.” • In dissent, Justice John Paul Stevens wrote: “A democracy cannot function effectively when its constituent members believe laws are being bought and sold.”

12. Campaign Finance: Republicans • Through March 2012, all super PACs had raised a total of $154 million and spent $82 million — mainly Republicans tearing down other Republicans. • For example, Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Mitt Romney, had spent $37.9 million through March 2012 against other Republicans in the GOP primary alone.

14. Campaign Finance: Obama • Through February 2012, President Obama had raised roughly $200 million for his re-election bid. • Of course this did not count the tens of millions raised by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and numerous Political Action Committees (PACs) that raise money to benefit the president and other democrats in the 2012 election. • At the same time, the Obama campaign had spent more than $135 million on operations through February 2012--$3 million more than all of his GOP challengers combined. • The Obama campaign had amassed a paid campaign staff of over 500 people, 330 at the Chicago headquarters in the Prudential Building and the rest spread throughout the country.

15. Campaign Finance: Small Donors • Small donations—anything from $1-$10 can also have a huge effect. • In 2008, President Obama raised tens of millions of dollars via the internet through small donations by individuals. • His campaign regularly sends out e-mails to supporters such as this one from March 31, 2012: • Dear _________. This is important: Thank you.You're why I decided to do this five years ago -- and why we have the chance to finish it.The next three months will be tough.Can you pitch in $10 so we're ready for them?https://donate.barackobama.com/TodayThank you,Barack

16. Conclusion • Despite the ailing economy and America’s overall disapproval of the direction the country is headed in President Obama has not faced a serious challenge for re-nomination. • Despite dissatisfaction with the presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, he appears to be well on his way to winning the GOP nomination. • According to a CNN poll conducted at the end of March 2012, registered voters picked Obama over Romney 54%-43%. Obama’s approval rating was just above 50%. • Will Romney be able to defeat Obama during the general election?