Welcome to the Observatory Multiple risk factors of worklessness seminar

1. West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Welcome to the ObservatoryMultiple risk factors of worklessness seminar 6th July 2010

2. West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Worklessness in the West Midlands:The impact of demographics and multiple risk factors 6th July 2010

3. Risk factors for worklessness Young person � aged 16-24 Older person � aged 55 to retirement being from a black, Indian or Pakistani/Bangladeshi ethnic group Having a long-term health problem/disability Being a lone parent Having no qualifications West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Average worklessness rate in the WM = 28% Worklessness rate is the % of the working age population who are not in employment We know all of these groups have higher rates of worklessness than average � there are other risk factors for worklessness but these are important ones which are large groups. Eg. Could look at more specific ethnic breakdowns � mixed � but smaller groups But we don�t know about people who belong to more than one of these groups � eg it might be that there is a lot of overlap between groups, therefore people are facing multiple barriers and that leads to higher worklessness rates for these groups; We also don�t know why these groups have higher rates of worklessness in the WM than england eg. In baseline report showed that people with a health problem /disability in the WM had a worklessness rate of 52% compared to 49% in Eng. Is this because they are more likely to have other risk factors as well in this region than elsewhere. So � logistic regression � isolates risk factors. Control for this set of demographic characteristics Average worklessness rate in the WM = 28% Worklessness rate is the % of the working age population who are not in employment We know all of these groups have higher rates of worklessness than average � there are other risk factors for worklessness but these are important ones which are large groups. Eg. Could look at more specific ethnic breakdowns � mixed � but smaller groups But we don�t know about people who belong to more than one of these groups � eg it might be that there is a lot of overlap between groups, therefore people are facing multiple barriers and that leads to higher worklessness rates for these groups; We also don�t know why these groups have higher rates of worklessness in the WM than england eg. In baseline report showed that people with a health problem /disability in the WM had a worklessness rate of 52% compared to 49% in Eng. Is this because they are more likely to have other risk factors as well in this region than elsewhere. So � logistic regression � isolates risk factors. Control for this set of demographic characteristics

4. Effects of single risk factors - example West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Left person is standard person that we are comparing to � �base� person Only one risk, other factors the same In west mids Having low risk characteristics except for having a health problem increases chance of being workless to 40% - women nearly 3 times as likely to be workless if have a health problem compared to women without a health problemLeft person is standard person that we are comparing to � �base� person Only one risk, other factors the same In west mids Having low risk characteristics except for having a health problem increases chance of being workless to 40% - women nearly 3 times as likely to be workless if have a health problem compared to women without a health problem

5. Effects of single risk factors - example West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Another example. Almost triples the riskAnother example. Almost triples the risk

6. Effects of single risk factors on individuals West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 People with no risk factors � low risk of worklessness. Just 14% for women would give employment rate of 86%, so much lower than the rate for females � 32% Isolated the effects of each factor. All risk factors increase the risk (as expected � they are risk factors!) � even just one risk can give high chance of worklessness Females higher for all factors. Go through biggest risks for females and males, then other significant factors Biggest gap between sexes is for Pakistani/Bangladeshis Single factors give wide range of risks. Having just 1 risk for males can increase to chance to 1 in 3, and for females to 2 in 3. Average of probabilities for single risk factors � males = 18%, females = 34%People with no risk factors � low risk of worklessness. Just 14% for women would give employment rate of 86%, so much lower than the rate for females � 32% Isolated the effects of each factor. All risk factors increase the risk (as expected � they are risk factors!) � even just one risk can give high chance of worklessness Females higher for all factors. Go through biggest risks for females and males, then other significant factors Biggest gap between sexes is for Pakistani/Bangladeshis Single factors give wide range of risks. Having just 1 risk for males can increase to chance to 1 in 3, and for females to 2 in 3. Average of probabilities for single risk factors � males = 18%, females = 34%

7. Comparing WM and rest of England West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Woman with no risk factors less likely to be workless in the WM than if she lived in rest of England. Woman with no risk factors less likely to be workless in the WM than if she lived in rest of England.

8. Comparing WM and rest of England West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 All characteristics the same except that they live in the WM. The difference is not explained by any of these demographic factors. There are other demographic factors not included � e.g born outside the uk, speaking english but these not likely to be much worse in this region than elsewhere.All characteristics the same except that they live in the WM. The difference is not explained by any of these demographic factors. There are other demographic factors not included � e.g born outside the uk, speaking english but these not likely to be much worse in this region than elsewhere.

9. Comparing WM and rest of England West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010

10. Single risks in the WM compared to England West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Now look at chance of being workless for all of the single risk factors in WM compared to England. Arrows show the effect of living in the West Midlands on an individual�s risk of worklessness. Up arrow increased risk , down decreased risk, What size of arrows means. Arrows just way of displaying the gaps but have meant we have had to pick cut-off values for the different arrows. For people with no risks their chances of being workless are pretty much the same in this region as elsewhere. Remember � isolated factors just this risk - all other characteristics low risk Biggest (increased) gap for females � Pakistani/Bangladeshi. More gaps for women than men at regional level Biggest (increased) gap for males � Indian and health problem � but only just over 2pp and not as big as gaps for women In general, if you have no risk factors you are no more likely to be workless in this region than elsewhere. 4 risk factors for women mean they are at increased risk of being workless because of that disadvantage but there is also a gap to eng. So are more likely to be workless if they live here with that disadvantage than if they live elsewhere in england. Now look at chance of being workless for all of the single risk factors in WM compared to England. Arrows show the effect of living in the West Midlands on an individual�s risk of worklessness. Up arrow increased risk , down decreased risk, What size of arrows means. Arrows just way of displaying the gaps but have meant we have had to pick cut-off values for the different arrows. For people with no risks their chances of being workless are pretty much the same in this region as elsewhere. Remember � isolated factors just this risk - all other characteristics low risk Biggest (increased) gap for females � Pakistani/Bangladeshi. More gaps for women than men at regional level Biggest (increased) gap for males � Indian and health problem � but only just over 2pp and not as big as gaps for women In general, if you have no risk factors you are no more likely to be workless in this region than elsewhere. 4 risk factors for women mean they are at increased risk of being workless because of that disadvantage but there is also a gap to eng. So are more likely to be workless if they live here with that disadvantage than if they live elsewhere in england.

11. Effect on a male�s risk of worklessness of living in each area compared to England West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 NUTS 2 � divides region into 3 � official geographies. Her,wor,war � 3 counties, Shrop,staff � 2 counties + Stoke + Telford, WM met � solihull, cov, black country and Birm For males with no risk factors � if they live anywhere in the region they are no more likely to be workless than men with no risk factors living elsewhere in England. Go through each column in turn: Having a risk factor and living in her/worc/war � although at increased risk due to disadvantage � living in this area doesn�t increase risk any further � for 5 of the risk factors men living here are less likely to be workless than the same individuals living elsewhere Shrop/staff � Indian men at increased risk but most other risk factors decrease risk � this is likely to only be a small group and so wouldn�t be a focus of policy response WM met � 5 risk factors increased. Birm � 7 factors increased � all except older men For men with any of the risk factors who live in Birmingham � they are more likely to be workless than their counterparts living in the rest of England. In general more red arrows on right NUTS 2 � divides region into 3 � official geographies. Her,wor,war � 3 counties, Shrop,staff � 2 counties + Stoke + Telford, WM met � solihull, cov, black country and Birm For males with no risk factors � if they live anywhere in the region they are no more likely to be workless than men with no risk factors living elsewhere in England. Go through each column in turn: Having a risk factor and living in her/worc/war � although at increased risk due to disadvantage � living in this area doesn�t increase risk any further � for 5 of the risk factors men living here are less likely to be workless than the same individuals living elsewhere Shrop/staff � Indian men at increased risk but most other risk factors decrease risk � this is likely to only be a small group and so wouldn�t be a focus of policy response WM met � 5 risk factors increased. Birm � 7 factors increased � all except older men For men with any of the risk factors who live in Birmingham � they are more likely to be workless than their counterparts living in the rest of England. In general more red arrows on right

12. Single factors conclusions 3rd bullet � e.g�s women � young, black, Pakistani/Bangladeshi, health problem/disability men � Indian, health problem/disability 4th bullet � Birmingham also. In general, having a risk factor and living in the WM met or Birm means you are more likely to be workless than if you lived elsewhere in England. Increased risk due to disadvantage but also gap with England 3rd bullet � e.g�s women � young, black, Pakistani/Bangladeshi, health problem/disability men � Indian, health problem/disability 4th bullet � Birmingham also. In general, having a risk factor and living in the WM met or Birm means you are more likely to be workless than if you lived elsewhere in England. Increased risk due to disadvantage but also gap with England

13. West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Multiple risks � how factors interact and what this tells us

14. Effects of risk factors � example (male)

15. Effects of risk factors � example (female) No risk factors

16. Probability of worklessness: the impact of multiple disadvantages Female 14% > Lone parent 25% > Lone parent and no qualifications 61% Female 14% > black 23% > black and no qualifications 61% Female 14% > Pakistani/Bangladeshi 70% > Pakistani/Bangladeshi no qualifications 91% Female 14% > health problem 40% > black and health problem 62% Male 6% > black 17% > black young 62% Male 6% > no qualifications 13% > black and no qualifications 35% Male 6% > Indian 9% > Indian and no qualifications 17% Male 6% > Male health problem 31% > health problem and no qualifications 63% West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Mostly over 50%. More likely to be workless than in work. Two risk factors, but all else is low riskMostly over 50%. More likely to be workless than in work. Two risk factors, but all else is low risk

17. No risk factors How multiple factors increase risk Average for 1 risk � males =18%, females = 34% Average for 2 risks � males = 46%, females = 61% Average for 1 risk � males =18%, females = 34% Average for 2 risks � males = 46%, females = 61%

18. No risk factors How multiple factors increase risk

19. Many red arrows: chances of worklessness for those with multiple disadvantage are higher in this region West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Too many thick red arrows. More red arrows for multiple risk than single (at regional level) At regional level large gaps appear with 2 risks. Gaps indicate being in the region with 2 risk factors is even greater risk than having same risks but being elsewhere. Possibly due to Birmingham extremes pulling it down? Too many thick red arrows. More red arrows for multiple risk than single (at regional level) At regional level large gaps appear with 2 risks. Gaps indicate being in the region with 2 risk factors is even greater risk than having same risks but being elsewhere. Possibly due to Birmingham extremes pulling it down?

20. Sub-regional effects exacerbated by multiple risk Differences in risks between geographical areas for single risk factors are magnified for combinations of two risk factors. For example, for a young black woman, the probability of worklessness is: Outside the West Midlands 57% West Midlands region 61% Herefordshire, Worcestershire & Warwickshire 21% Shropshire & Staffordshire 49% West Midlands met area 61% Birmingham 68% Having multiple disadvantages and living in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area increases the chances of worklessness even further. A person with multiple disadvantages living in Birmingham is far more likely to be workless than someone with no disadvantages, but is also more likely to be workless than a person with the same characteristics living elsewhere Having multiple disadvantages and living in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area increases the chances of worklessness even further. A person with multiple disadvantages living in Birmingham is far more likely to be workless than someone with no disadvantages, but is also more likely to be workless than a person with the same characteristics living elsewhere

21. The interaction of risk factors A person having no qualifications or a young person in combination with a second disadvantage tends to result in a higher risk of worklessness than would be expected, suggesting that these groups are particularly disadvantaged. West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010

22. Combinations involving no qualifications lead to high probabilities West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 No quals is a reinforcing risk factor. On its own it doubles risk. When added to others probabilities become very high. eg black female NQ: 61% Male NQ dis: 63% Size of population and NQs � have second factorNo quals is a reinforcing risk factor. On its own it doubles risk. When added to others probabilities become very high. eg black female NQ: 61% Male NQ dis: 63% Size of population and NQs � have second factor

23. Multiple factors conclusions Having more than one risk factor increases a person�s chances of worklessness even further, in most cases to over 50% meaning those with two risk factors are more likely to be workless than in work. People with multiple risk factors are more likely to be workless in this region than elsewhere, and especially if they live in the urban core Combinations involving no qualifications and youth result in particularly high probability of worklessness Regional gaps With no risk factors, chances of being workless are no different at regional level than elsewhere in England. With one risk factor, at regional level there are some red arrows, indicating gaps between the region and England With two risk factors there are many red arrows, indicating that people with those characteristics are more likely to be workless in this region than elsewhere.

24. Overall conclusions If a person has no risk factors they have a very low risk of worklessness, and are no more likely to be workless in the West Midlands, or any part of it, than elsewhere Having just one risk factor increases a person�s chances of worklessness substantially, while having more than one risk factor increases a person�s chances of worklessness even further, in most cases to over 50% People with multiple risk factors are more likely to be workless in this region than elsewhere, and especially if they live in the urban core

25. West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Questions

26. Multiple Risk Factors: Informing Policy Development Applying the lessons to Localism, Local Enterprise Partnerships and Welfare Reform

27. The Scale of the Challenge The regional output gap has increased from �10 billion to �15 billion. The West Midlands has: the third highest (behind Yorkshire & the Humber and the North East) International Labour Organisation unemployment rate of any English region, at 9.0%, with 240,000 people out of work; 162,400 people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA), a decrease of 12,700 on May 2009 but an increase of 66,300 on May 2008 (pre-recession); 47,000 Young People claiming JSA, compared to 31,000 in 2008, and the highest youth claimant count rate in the English regions at 9.2%; an employment rate dropping from 72.6% to 70.7% in the 2 years to April 2010 compared to a national (English) average of 72.4%. the highest proportion of people with no formal skills qualifications (with the North East). Labour Market Statistics 16 June 2010.

28. Informing National Policy Development DWP Welfare Reform Commission for Social Justice Single Welfare to Work Programme Access based on need, not length of unemployment Segmentation/Risk Profiling Helping providers to deliver differently How will we capitalise on the �3 Trillion global Green Economy? What are we doing to develop not only the high level skill base that a low carbon economy demands, but the �higher� entry level skills required to deliver household retrofitting? What does this mean for the Region�s Skills Strategy? Where are the Green Technology and Economy Prizes for 14-19 Year Olds to compete for? Where is the West Midlands Green New Deal?How will we capitalise on the �3 Trillion global Green Economy? What are we doing to develop not only the high level skill base that a low carbon economy demands, but the �higher� entry level skills required to deliver household retrofitting? What does this mean for the Region�s Skills Strategy? Where are the Green Technology and Economy Prizes for 14-19 Year Olds to compete for? Where is the West Midlands Green New Deal?

29. Informing National Policy Development BIS/CLG Apprenticeships �150m for 50,000 Apprenticeships Securing a �fair� share for each �natural� Economic Area? Local Enterprise Partnerships Local Authority initiated Business-led? Targeting areas facing local economic difficulties Providing the evidence base for setting strategic priorities How will we capitalise on the �3 Trillion global Green Economy? What are we doing to develop not only the high level skill base that a low carbon economy demands, but the �higher� entry level skills required to deliver household retrofitting? What does this mean for the Region�s Skills Strategy? Where are the Green Technology and Economy Prizes for 14-19 Year Olds to compete for? Where is the West Midlands Green New Deal?How will we capitalise on the �3 Trillion global Green Economy? What are we doing to develop not only the high level skill base that a low carbon economy demands, but the �higher� entry level skills required to deliver household retrofitting? What does this mean for the Region�s Skills Strategy? Where are the Green Technology and Economy Prizes for 14-19 Year Olds to compete for? Where is the West Midlands Green New Deal?

30. National rather than Local decision-making Business policy moving from Region to National Leadership Innovation Business Support Inward Investment Access to Finance How will we capitalise on the �3 Trillion global Green Economy? What are we doing to develop not only the high level skill base that a low carbon economy demands, but the �higher� entry level skills required to deliver household retrofitting? What does this mean for the Region�s Skills Strategy? Where are the Green Technology and Economy Prizes for 14-19 Year Olds to compete for? Where is the West Midlands Green New Deal?How will we capitalise on the �3 Trillion global Green Economy? What are we doing to develop not only the high level skill base that a low carbon economy demands, but the �higher� entry level skills required to deliver household retrofitting? What does this mean for the Region�s Skills Strategy? Where are the Green Technology and Economy Prizes for 14-19 Year Olds to compete for? Where is the West Midlands Green New Deal?

31. Role of Local Enterprise Partnerships Provide strategic leadership in their areas Set out local priorities Create environment for business and growth Tackle issues such as: Planning and housing Transport & infrastructure Employment & enterprise Low carbon economy Lessons learned from the EIP Worklessness and Multiple Disadvantage Local Economic Assessments and Work and Skills Plans Growth sectors, Housing Retrofit, Green Deal, Low Carbon Economy, The Procurement Framework for Jobs and Skills

32. LEPs and Access to funding Regional Growth Fund already announced: �1bn over 2011-12 and 2012-13 Focused on areas where business employment and growth needs stimulation Not new money � likely to be drawn from regeneration, housing, business growth, transport, etc No cap on individual bids

33. A Toolkit for LEPs: EIP/WMRO Evidence Base Baseline Report Spotlight Reports Employer Attitudes Research Annual Report Multiple Risk Factors Wrap around local data - analyses and syntheses? Containing model documents, including template jobs and skills clauses, detailed legal guidance and various tools, which can be downloaded and adapted to meet the needs of individual public and third sector organisations and prospective contractors, including SMEs and social enterprises.Containing model documents, including template jobs and skills clauses, detailed legal guidance and various tools, which can be downloaded and adapted to meet the needs of individual public and third sector organisations and prospective contractors, including SMEs and social enterprises.

34. The LEP Toolkit: The Procurement Framework Help local decision-makers achieve their goals by: avoiding nugatory costs of commissioning similar legal research or developing similar solutions; setting out a common Framework, which public sector organisations can apply, as the best means of helping a greater number of those most at disadvantage in the labour market benefit from private sector-led economic growth; encouraging improved, collaborative public sector procurement exercises, which reach out to, and enhance contracting opportunities for, local companies, social enterprises and community and voluntary sector organisations; ensuring every pound of public sector spend is �sweated� for it its potential to deliver local jobs and skills outcomes, as part of a concerted drive to improve the efficiency and value for money of public sector procurement exercises. Containing model documents, including template jobs and skills clauses, detailed legal guidance and various tools, which can be downloaded and adapted to meet the needs of individual public and third sector organisations and prospective contractors, including SMEs and social enterprises.Containing model documents, including template jobs and skills clauses, detailed legal guidance and various tools, which can be downloaded and adapted to meet the needs of individual public and third sector organisations and prospective contractors, including SMEs and social enterprises.

35. Localism, Local Leadership�.. Local Authorities Local Enterprise Partnerships Business Leaders City Mayors? City Ministers?

36. Transition and Legacy - pointing the way The Economic Inclusion Business Case Influencing LEP Proposals Underpinning Growth Fund Bids Promoting the Economic Inclusion argument to the HMT Infrastructure Unit Ensuring a voice and role for SME�s, Social Enterprises, Social Firms and the Community and Voluntary sectors Containing information on legal and policy matters, supply-side issues and the free, public sector recruitment and training support services that are available to procurers and prospective contractors.Containing information on legal and policy matters, supply-side issues and the free, public sector recruitment and training support services that are available to procurers and prospective contractors.

37. Message from the Economic Inclusion Panel The Economic Inclusion Research Programme and the Procurement Framework for Jobs and Skills constitute the Economic Inclusion Panel�s �legacy� and key messages to local decision-makers.

38. But there�s more we must do�. Before March 2011 we will add to this legacy by: developing the high level data that local decision-makers will need to inform LEP strategies for securing thousands of new Apprenticeship opportunities; developing an SME Guide to Apprenticeships; promoting entry level jobs and training in housing retrofit; further embedding the Procurement Framework for Jobs and Skills.

39. West Midlands Regional Observatory 2010 Questions and discussion