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As anticipated, in the first quarter of 2016, the Forex markets might experience random fluctuations. Factors like the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, December interest rate increase, Chinese economic slowdown, and sinking global energy prices may play a key role. In order to ensure success, Forex traders must keep an eye on all these factors.
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Forex Forecast: 3 Major Factors to Watch in Q1 2016
Market Volatility Returns in 2016 In the first quarter of 2016, the Forex markets have become rather volatile. There are a number of macroeconomic factor that are contributing to the volatility, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December interest rate increase, a Chinese economic slowdown, and sinking global energy prices. Forex traders must recognize these factors, which could impact Forex transactions throughout the first half of 2016.
European Central Bank Action in Q1 The Euro Zone is experiencing period of slow economic growth, compared to the US and UK economies, but inflation has remained in control. The Chinese slowdown, though, has also discouraged investment, because China is the European Union’s No. 1 trade partner.5 Plus, Britian’s possible exit from the Euro Zone, as well as a possible quantitative easing expansion could also affect Euro values. As a result of these factors, the Euro’s value will likely remain stagnant or decrease slightly in 2016.
US Federal Reserve 2016 Forecast Towards the end of last year, U.S. interest rates were raised a half percentage point by Federal Reserve. Yet inflation has increased unexpectedly, and the Fed will not likely raise interest rates aggressively this year. Forex traders must keep an eye on interest rates, with possible Fed action coming each quarter, as any action will impact the US dollar’s value.
Oil and Commodity Prices Oil prices have hit a decade-plus low, and they are slowly rising in 2016. The slow price growth has affected a number of net energy exporters. For example, the Canadian dollar, has been adversely affected by stagnant energy prices. Globally, commodity prices have declined with minimal growth, thanks in part to the Chinese economic slowdown. As a result, countries that rely on strong commodity prices, like Australia, have experience declining currency valuations.
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