Премии и лауреаты после 200 0 года

1. Премии и лауреаты после 2000 года The SverigesRiksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

2. 2000 – Деймс Хекман, Дэниел Макфадден Daniel L. McFadden, 1937- "for his development of theory and methods for analyzing discrete choice" James J. Heckman,1944- "for his development of theory and methods for analyzing selective samples"

3. Хекман: • Решение технических проблем микроэконометрики, связанных с самоотбором (self-selection) In 1985, using his own method to study the connection between work and wages <…>, Heckman found a bigger elasticity of labor supply among American men than had previously been thought to exist. That was because a given increase in wages did not just cause an increase in hours among those already working, but also caused relatively low-wage workers to reenter the labor market and get jobs (CE)

4. Макфадден: • Решение технических проблем микроэконометрики, связанных с ситуацией дискретного выбора McFadden tested his model with data on people’s transportation choices before the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system was built in the San Francisco Bay Area. While the official forecast was 15 percent, McFadden used his model to predict that only 6.3 percent of Bay Area travelers would use BART. The actual number turned out to be 6.2 percent (CE)

5. 2001 – Джордж Акерлоф, Майкл Спенс, Джозеф Стиглиц"for their analyses of markets with asymmetric information”

6. Акерлоф: • «Рынок лимонов» George Akerlof demonstrated how a market where sellers have more information than buyers about product quality can contract into an adverse selection of low-quality products. He also pointed out that informational problems are commonplace and important. Akerlof's pioneering contribution thus showed how asymmetric information of borrowers and lenders may explain skyrocketing borrowing rates on local Third World markets; but it also dealt with the difficulties for the elderly to find individual medical insurance and with labour-market discrimination of minorities (NC)

7. Спенс: • «Сигнализация» Michael Spence identified an important form of adjustment by individual market participants, where the better informed take costly actions in an attempt to improve on their market outcome by credibly transmitting information to the poorly informed. Spence showed when such signaling will actually work. While his own research emphasized education as a productivity signal in job markets, subsequent research has suggested many other applications, e.g., how firms may use dividends to signal their profitability to agents in the stock market (NC)

8. Стиглиц: • «Скрининг» In 1976, Stiglitz and coauthor Michael Rothschild started from the plausible assumption that people buying insurance know more about their relevant characteristics than the insurance company selling it. They then showed that it would be in the insurance company’s interest to “sort” its customers by risk category by offering a range of insurance products to all and letting the customers self-select (CE) Joseph Stiglitz clarified the opposite type of market adjustment, where poorly informed agents extract information from the better informed, such as the screening performed by insurance companies dividing customers into risk classes by offering a menu of contracts where higher deductibles can be exchanged for significantly lower premiums. In a number of contributions about different markets, Stiglitz has shown that asymmetric information can provide the key to understanding many observed market phenomena, including unemployment and credit rationing (NC)

9. 2002 – Дэниел Канеман, Вернон Смит Daniel Kahneman, 1934- for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty" Vernon L. Smith, 1927- "for having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms"

10. Амос Тверски • Amos Tversky, 1937-1996

11. Канеман и Тверски: Создали теорию перспектив, чтобы объяснить иррациональные человеческие экономические решения Описали в общей сложности 11 «когнитивных иллюзий», искажающих способность человека к рациональной оценке, и дали им систематическое объяснение

12. Смит - создатель экспериментальной экономики: • 1962. “An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior.” Journal of Political Economy 70: 111–137. • 1965. “Experimental Auction Markets and the Walrasian Hypothesis.” Journal of Political Economy 70: 387–393.

13. 2003 – Роберт Энгл, Клайв Грейнджер Robert F. Engle III, 1942- "for methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility (ARCH)" Clive W.J. Granger, 1934-2009 for methods of analyzing economic time series with common trends (cointegration)"

14. Энгл: • Создание метода для анализа рядов данных с переменными средними значениями и дисперсией

15. Грейнджер: • Методы анализа временных рядов с общими трендами Clive Granger demonstrated that the statistical methods used for stationary time series could yield wholly misleading results when applied to the analysis of nonstationary data. His significant discovery was that specific combinations of nonstationary time series may exhibit stationarity, thereby allowing for correct statistical inference (NC) Michael P. Murray. A Drunk and Her Dog: an Illustration of Cointegration and Error Corection.

16. 2004 – Финн Кидланд, Эдуард Прескотт "for their contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind business cycles” Finn Erling Kydland, 1943– Edward C. Prescott, 1940-

17. Time consistency: непоследовательность в политике This research shifted the practical discussion of economic policy away from isolated policy measures towards the institutions of policymaking, a shift that has largely influenced the reforms of central banks and the design of monetary policy in many countries over the last decade(NC) • Real Business Cycle Whereas earlier research had emphasized macroeconomic shocks on the demand side of the economy, Kydland and Prescott demonstrated that shocks on the supply side may have far-reaching effects.<…> Previous business-cycle models had typically been based on historical relations between key macroeconomic variables. But models that had functioned quite well during the 1960s began to break down under the more turbulent economic conditions of the 1970s, with oil-price shocks and concurrent inflation and unemployment. The Laureates laid the groundwork for more robust models by regarding business cycles as the collective outcome of countless forward-looking decisions made by individual households and firms regarding consumption, investments, labor supply, etc. Kydland and Prescott's methods have been widely adopted in modern macroeconomics(NC)

18. 2005 – Роберт Ауманн, Томас Шеллинг "for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis" Thomas C. Schelling, 1921- Robert J. Aumann, 1930-

19. Ауманн: • Ввел понятие повторяющихся игр и исследовал их свойства

20. Шеллинг: • The Strategy of Conflict, 1960 – первое исследование ситуаций конфликта и переговоров методами теории игр

21. 2006 - Эдмунд Фелпс Edmund S. Phelps, 1933- "for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy"

22. Исследование компромиссов (tradeoffs): • Между инфляцией и безработицей – кратко- и долгосрочном периоде • Между поколениями по поводу потребления и накопления

23. 2007 – Леонид Гурвич, Эрик Мэскин, Роджер Майерсон"for having laid the foundations of mechanism design theory"

24. Гурвич: • Определил механизм как игру, участники которой посылают сигналы друг другу или «почтовому центру» и на этой основе по заранее заданному правилу определяется результат игры, соответствующий каждому набору сигналов • Ввел понятие incentive compatibility (совместимости со стимулами) • , revelation principle, direct mechanisms

25. Дальнейшее развиие: • The first version of the revelation principle was formulated by Gibbard (1973). Several researchers – including Dasgupta, Hammond and Maskin (1979) and Myerson (1979) – independently extended it to the standard notion of Bayesian Nash equilibrium, which has proved particularly fruitful for subsequent research. Myerson (1979, 1982, 1986) developed the principle in its greatest generality and pioneered its application to specific economic problems such as auctions and regulation. • The revelation principle has transformed the analysis of economic mechanisms. One pro­blem remains, however. In many cases, one mechanism admits several different equili­bria.3 Even if the best outcome is achieved in one equilibrium, other, inferior equilibria may also exist. For example, conventional double auctions tend to have many equilibria, some of which are associated with very low volumes of trade. Can a mechanism be desig­ned such that all its equilibria are optimal? The first general solution to this problem was given by Eric Maskin (1977). The resulting theory, known as implementation theory, is a key part of modern mechanism design(NC)

26. 2008 – Пол Кругман Paul Krugman, 1953- "for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity"

27. Traditional trade theory assumes that countries are different and explains why some countries export agricultural products whereas others export industrial goods. The new theory clarifies why worldwide trade is in fact dominated by countries which not only have similar conditions, but also trade in similar products – for instance, a country such as Sweden that both exports and imports cars. This kind of trade enables specialization and large-scale production, which result in lower prices and a greater diversity of commodities(NC)

28. 2009 – Элинор Остром, Оливер Вильямсон Oliver E. Williamson, 1932- "for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm" Elinor Ostrom, 1933-2012 "for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons"

29. ElinorOstrom has challenged the conventional wisdom that common property is poorly managed and should be either regulated by central authorities or privatized. Based on numerous studies of user-managed fish stocks, pastures, woods, lakes, and groundwater basins, Ostrom concludes that the outcomes are, more often than not, better than predicted by standard theories. She observes that resource users frequently develop sophisticated mechanisms for decision-making and rule enforcement to handle conflicts of interest, and she characterizes the rules that promote successful outcomes(NC)

30. Oliver Williamson has argued that markets and hierarchical organizations, such as firms, represent alternative governance structures which differ in their approaches to resolving conflicts of interest. The drawback of markets is that they often entail haggling and disagreement. The drawback of firms is that authority, which mitigates contention, can be abused. Competitive markets work relatively well because buyers and sellers can turn to other trading partners in case of dissent. But when market competition is limited, firms are better suited for conflict resolution than markets. A key prediction of Williamson's theory, which has also been supported empirically, is therefore that the propensity of economic agents to conduct their transactions inside the boundaries of a firm increases along with the relationship-specific features of their assets(NC)

31. 2010 – Даймонд, Мортенсен, Писсаридес "for their analysis of markets with search frictions”

32. Модель поиска показывает, что необходимость даже небольших затрт на поиск рыночной информации приводит к существенным изменениям в поведении экономических агентов (парадокс Даймонда, 1971) Даймонд внес существенный вклад в теорию рынков с поиском, а Мортенсен и Писсаридес развили это направление и применили его для анализа рынка труда Эти модели продемонстрировали наличие внешних эффектов, о существовании которых каждый индивид не знает. Второй важный вывод – что при данных услоиях возможны несколько траекторий развития. Из этого может следовать желательность внешнего вмешательства в функционирование рынков. Эти результаты известны как модель Даймонда-Мортенсена-Писсаридеса (DMP model), которая сегодня является наиболее часто используемым инструментом для анализа безработицы, формирования зарплаты и рабочих мест. Аналогичные подходы широко применяются ри анализе рынка недвижимости, а также в области денежной политики, региональной и семейной экономики.

33. 2011 – Томас Сарджент, Кристофер Симс"for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” Christopher A. Sims, 1942- Thomas J. Sargent, 1943-

34. Сарджент – один из главных авторов (вместе с Лукасом) революции рациональных ожиданий Премия 2011 года относится к области макроэконометрики, т.е. присуждена за разработку методов эмпирического анализа взаимной зависимости поведения рыночных агентов и экономической политики Симс – автор метода VAR,«эконометрической проекции» революции рациональных ожиданий

35. 2012 – Элвин Рот, Ллойд Шепли"for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design" Alvin E. Roth, 1951- Lloyd S. Shapley, 1923-

36. Шепли: • Классик, автор многочисленных работ по теории игр • Gale D., Shapley L.S.CollegeAdmissionandtheStabilityofMarriage – главный повод для премии (WP) Рот: • Разработал ряд практических механизмов для «задачи о марьяже» (matching problem) на основе алгоритма Гейла-Шепли (организация систем поступления в школы и системы трансплантации почек)

37. 2013 – Фама, Хансен, Шиллер"for their empirical analysis of asset prices”

38. Фама: • Показал эконометрически, что уровень цен на фоновом рынке непредсказуем в краткосрочном периоде и что рынок «переваривает» новую информацию очень быстро • Ввел понятие уровней эффективности рынка в зависимости от того, какую информацию могут учитывать рыночные агенты Шиллер: • Обнаружил сверхволатильность индексов на финансвых рынках. Это поставило вопрос об эффективности финансовых рынков, а также означало, что в более долгосрочной перспективе цены предсказуемы Хансен: • Разработал обобщенный метод моментов (GMM), в частности удобный для анализа финансовых рынков Данные исследования имели как практические, так и научные последствия. В частности выяснилось, что взаимные фонды неэффективны. Модель CAPM и ее производные оказались недостаточными; это стимулировало многочисленные исследования поведения людей на финансовых рынках и в других сферах

39. 2014 - Жан Тироль Jean Tirole, 1953- "for his analysis of market power and regulation"

40. Jean Tirole’s research contributions are characterised by thorough studies, respect for the peculiarities of different markets, and the skilful use of new analytical methods in economics. He has penetrated deep into the most central issues of oligopolies and assymetric information, but he has also managed to bring together his own and other’s results into a coherent framework for teaching, practical application, and continued research. Tirole’s emphasis on normative theories of regulation and competition policy has given his contributions great practical significance(NC)

41. 2015 – Ангус Дитон Angus Deaton, 1945- "for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare"

42. Angus Deaton’s research spans a very broad field, touching on many different aspects of consumption. It also shows an impressive breadth in its approaches: basic theory; statistical methods for testing theories; in-depth knowledge of the quality of existing data; and extensive work on producing new kinds of data. One common denominator in his research is the desire to build bridges between theory and data. Another common denominator is building bridges between individual behaviors and aggregate economic outcomes. Angus Deaton’s many contributions have left clear and lasting impressions in practical economic policy and in modern economic research(NC)