Scenario-building as a communication tool

1. Scenario-building as a communication tool Skryhan Hanna Krasnoyarsk, February, 15 – February, 22, 2014

2. The Anthropocene Source: http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/12/welcome_to_the.php

3. What will the future bring? Observations

4. The problem studying with the future • We can’t observe it, but … • We know that it’ll be different (probably) • We cannot use traditional scientific methods • We need a set of tools to tackle the unknowns and uncertainties of the future

5. The way we address ‘futures‘ in complex systems depends on: • (a) how well we understand a system‘s complexity / causalities; • (b) how uncertain we are about future developments of key drivers Source: Zurek, M., Henrichs, T., 2007. Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

6. Scenario “Scenario (outcome) – a plausible image of the future, based on the qualitative or quantitative interpretation of a set of scenario assumptions, which can be presented as narrative storylines or quantitative figures and maps (models)” (Metzger et al., 2010) Scenarios are not predictions!

7. Scenarios and projections • Scenarios astools to • …explore the future, • …assess the effects of future (environmental, social) change, • …describe drivers of change – social, economic, policy, technology, governance, • …assess policy options in a context, • …provide a platform for stakeholder discussion, • …deal with uncertainty, • …connect descriptions of the future to the present through a series of causal links, • …etc.

8. We can influence the future!

9. Types of scenarios

10. Advantages and disadvantages • Critic of Explanatory scenarios : the constraints of the present are likely to lead to conservative scenarios, in that the progress that could be reached is underestimated and new options are not taken into consideration

11. Scenario development • Qualitative descriptions of the range and role of different land use change drivers • Quantitative assessments of the total area requirement (quantity) of each land use type, as a function of changes in the relevant drivers for each scenario • Spatial allocation rules to locate the land use quantities in geographic space across Europe

12. Scenario limitations

13. Development of explanatory scenarios

14. Driving forces: ESTEPEnvironmental, Social, Technological, Economic, Political • Define driving forces • Select scenario axis

15. Development of explanatory scenarios • Select scenario axis • Develop scenarios

16. Develop scenarios

17. Develop scenarios

18. Development of scenarioProblem: Transportation system in KrasnoyarskForecasting period: 2014 - 2034 • Step 1-2: Work in small groups – 30 min • Step 1. Identifying driving forces / impact factors influencing in present and future • Step 2. Assess of significance and likelihood of each impact factor (for each ESTEP group). Fill in the tables • Step 3. Distribution of driving forces for whole problems – 15 min • Distribute impact factors • Choose the most important factors • Step 4. Choosing and naming of scenario axis – 15 min • Step 5. Discussion and naming of scenarios – 15 min

19. Development of scenarioProblem: Transportation system in KrasnoyarskForecasting period: 2014 - 2034 High importance Low influencing High influencing Low importance