FLIServices expert meeting 11-12 June 2014, Copenhagen

1. FLIServices expert meeting11-12 June 2014, Copenhagen FLIServices update Anita PircVelkavrh

2. Latest developments of FLIServices Prioritised tools in January-June 2014: Live Catallogue Use of forward-looking information in policy (FLIP)

3. Prioritised tools in June – December 2014: Trends and horizon scanning tool FLIS cooperation Glossary

4. Long term interest of countries for development of FLIServices

5. Meetings 2014 FLIServices meeting, 11-12 June 2014, Copenhagen Live Catalogue final comments, main discussion on FLIP; FLIS trends, Cooperation, Glossary for information and preparation for the November meeting ; new activity FLIS entry page FLIServicesmeeting, November 2014, Copenhagen Live Catalogue and FLIP final approval; main discussion on FLIS trends, Cooperation, Glossary ; FLIS entry page NRC FLIS annual meeting: info on project status and approval of key documents Webinars, web meetings?

6. Live Catalogue • This meeting: • Approval of process • Comments to existing version • This meeting: • Comments to version 2 • Live Catalogue

7. Use of forward-looking information in policy (FLIP) • This meeting: • Explanation of new concept • Approval of process • Comments to Version 2 • FLIP

8. FLIP functions • 1 register any study that relates to experience in the use of FLI/foresight in policy • Blossom studies are also supported • Search according to policy cycle phase(s), Blossom approach used, crosscutting themes: • Communication of results, Foresight methods used • Governance practice • Policy recommendations forming • Priorities setting • Successes in use of FLI in policy • Barriers in use of FLI in policy

10. FLIS Cooperation • This meeting: • Approval of process: priority for November meeting (version 1) • Comments

11. FLIS Trends and horizon scanning • Existing version 1 • This meeting: • Discussion on concept and main functions • Approval of process: priority for November meeting (Version 2)

12. FLIS Glossary • This meeting: • Discussion on main functions • Approval of process: priority for November meeting • Glossary

13. FLIS entry page • This meeting: • Comments and ideas to the proposal

15. THANK YOU

16. Live Catalogue Live Catalogue of needs and offers for forward-looking information will support communicating and networking within the EIONET NRC FLIS community on the topics of interest to the community, such as projects, training, reports, requests for collaboration, tenders, open calls, contracts, support documents, articles and news.

17. FLIS Cooperation FLIS cooperation tool will provide the platform for collaboration and sharing of information of group of interested countries on specific topic or region(for example interesting tender, SOER 2015 regional fiche…) Various elements of FLIS platform can be relevant for FLIS collaboration (ie. LivCat needs and offers, trends, scenarios, indicators…) and there are specific information developed only for specific cooperation

18. FLIS Cooperation- Questions • Who can collaborate? (EIONET only) • How to describe information in FLIS platform to be able to search for relevance to specific cooperation? (ie. spatial scale) • People should be able to put in relevant info they find elsewhere in FLIS platform. • How to describe specific FLIS Cooperation activity? (scope, aim, parties, time, funds..)

19. FLIS Cooperation -structure Entry page: Lists of different cooperations established: Cooperation 1 (selected metadata visible) Cooperation 2

20. FLIS Cooperation -structure In LiveCat registered offer for cooperation in the project on Nature conservation foresight 4 countries expressed interest: Pt, At, Nl, Si Register Cooperation in FLIS Cooperation tool: list of countries, theme, policy use/cycle Description Add content: With the links to other tools various type of information form FLIServices can be added (FLIP, HS) Outputs of cooperation

21. Use of forward-looking information in policy (FLIP) Objective of this tool is to transparently present various aspects of interest of FLIS community in relation to using FLI in policy, methods and tools, communication of results of foresight studies, governance practice, forming of policy recommendations, priority settings successes and barriers in using FLI in policy. • It will also support Blossom studies (Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods).

22. FLIP tool functions Registration of studies metadata Registration of products, activities in relation to registered studies. Rich search options, organised by policy cycle and various crosscutting themes

24. FLIS trends and horizon scanning tool - objecitve . Group of services that supportssharing of knowledge and information related to trends analyses and horizon scanning. Tool for trends identification and description (horizon scanning, incl GMTs) will support process of identification of trends relevant for European environment, their continuous management, updating and identification of new trends from the countries and the EEA. Definition: A systematic process of analysis, identification and categorization of strategic information seeking to identify Drivers of Change present in the external environment, with the aim of better understanding it, its interactions, and how it influences the behavior of the actors it comprises, in order to identify critical issues, risks and opportunities, emerging issues or disruptions. The ultimate goal is to improve the ability of any organization to anticipate and prepare for new challenges. This strategic information appears initially in the form of drivers of change, which can be classified into several categories. For the purposes of this definition the following five categories of Drivers of Change shall be considered: Megatrends, Trends, Uncertainties, Wild Cards and Weak Signals.

25. Trends tool - components type of information to fulfil the purpose Current elements • Drivers of change : • Megatrends, • Trends, • Uncertainties, • Wild Cards and • Weak Signals. • Risks • Opportunities • Emerging issues • Disruptions • Global megatrends • Trends • Indicators • Uncertainties • Wild cards • Weak signals • Scenarios • ?

26. Trends tool- functions • Users can register following categories of FLI • Global megatrends, Trends, Indicators, Uncertainties, Wild cards, Weak signals • (to be revised) • Users can identify interlinkages/relationships between these information categories: For example: GMT 3 relates to • Trend 1 (which includes also some indicators, or uncertainties..) • Trend 2 • .. • Indicator 1 • Inidcator 2 • … • Uncertanty 1 • Users can identify cause-effect relationships (This function is to be developed) • Users can see other work done and use it to build upon it for own use or add a new one (trend, indicator..) • Reach search functions.

27. FLIS Glossary FLIS glossary is a basic service which will support definition of terms to be used by NRC FLIS (and in EIONET) and also enable visibility and comparison with other existing definitions. • FLIS glossary: • Definition • Based on (sources..) • Examples of use • Other glossaries • FLIS tools: marker with all words for which definition in glossaries exist (click-on)

28. BackcastingSource:Glossary of terms used in futures studies (Oxford project)Rome, 26 February 2014 Definition proposed: The process of working backwards from a possible future to determine what needs to happen to make this future unfold. Note: We envision sustainable intensification of agriculture feeding the world population in 2050 without jeopardizing natural resources and the environment for coming generations. Backcasting  identifies what needs to happen to get there in terms of policies and international agreements, trade, behavioural changes, technologies and practices, capacity development, etc. Illustration/reference: See examples of the use of backcasting in Briefs 03, 17 and 19 published in the GFAR series “The futures of Agriculture” at http://www.egfar.org/our-work/shaping-future-together/global-foresight-hub/publications See also “The Roads from Rio+20” at  http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2012-roads-from-rio-pathways-to-achieve-global-sustainability-goals-by-2050_0.pdf Wangel J. (2011) Exploring social structures and agency in backcasting studies for sustainable development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(5): 872-882. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.007. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162511000588 Carlsson-Kanyamaa A., Dreborga K.H., Mollb H.C., Padovan D. (2008) Participative backcasting: A tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures 40(1): 34-46

29. THANK YOU

30. Which services will we develop in 2013-2014-2015? Group of services that supporttrends detection and description (horizon scanning, incl GMTs) will support process of identification of trends relevant for European Environment, their continuous management, updating and identification of new trends from the countries and EEA. Live Catalogue of needs and offers for FLI will support sharing of skills, good practices, methodological tips and other activities (like projects development). Another group of services will be linked to USe of Forward-Looking Information for Policy(USFLIP). They will support activities developed under the project Blossom (Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods) and other approaches and processes when identification of use of FLi in policy cycle is collected, evaluated and reported. It will cover countries studies and collate in European wide crosscutting assessment. Glossary: is a basic service which will support definition of terms to be used by NRC FLIS (and in EIONET) and also enable visibility and comparison with other existing definitions.

31. Answers to questionnaire on FLIServices • Comments are based on the country experience and expert judgement:

32. Blossom meeting 17-18 June 2013, Copenhagen Informing about the practice in using FLI in policy making (Austria, UK) Informing about the practice in implementing current (2012/2013) Blossom studies and lessons learned (Hungary, Romania, Portugal) Informing about the state of the BLOSSOM service and first round of testing (EEA)

33. Blossom meeting - conclusions • There is the need for more knowledge on the impact of forward-looking information (FLI) for policies and its management, coordination mechanisms and exchange of practices to better tackle trade offs, capacity building and training measures, networking database. • Workshops/seminars on impacts to policy making –case studies (incl Blossom), approaches.. • Blossom shows application potential for strategic coordination ie. policies, strategies, regulation and for ex ante policy mechanisms, ie. SEA, EIA • FLI is a vehicle to improve dialogue between actors in policy making. Communication aspect is very important: • Workshop on how to engage policy makers (how to accommodate language, prevent misunderstanding, cultural differences, engage academia, linearity perceived by policy makers, understanding uncertainty, power of FL projects – overcome mentality “I will if you will”…)

34. Blossom meeting - conclusions, continu. • Examples of national situations in using forward looking information in State of the environment reporting showed diversity of needs and current practices in countries and opened many issues for discussion. • FLIServices can offer to improve the current practices and respond to the needs of countries.(the means for keeping continuity and enhancing institutional memory..) • Countries expressed the need for a “cook book” to serve countries when starting the process of inclusion of outlooks in SoE report. • Planning: we are lagging behind the schedule which we set in December 2012. Not to continue with the same approach, more stable, dedicated and operational commitment is needed, also in longer term • 5 country studies will be ready for testing Mid-September (Switzerland, Romania, Hungary, Check Republic, Portugal?) • BLOSSOM services tool: clarification of the purpose of the tool and needs from the users were collected

35. FLIServices meeting 19-20 June 2013, Copenhagen Sharing of experience within the FLIServices project and other experiences from countries (Slovakia, Switzerland, Portugal) Informing about state of development of FLIServicestools (EEA) Collecting comments from countries on tools development Deciding on elements which are of crucial importance for functioning of tools for countries

36. FLIServices meeting –conclusions • Current development of FLIS tools was presented and results of the first test. Discussion showed the need to improve structuring of forward-looking information to apply for tools. • It was concluded that a questionnaire will be sent to countries after the workshop to provide EEA with their needs and comments for steering further development of tools • Importance of glossary was pointed out again (some terms are almost impossible to translate in national languages) and the need for scenarios catalogue to collect available future studies in the country. • The first set of 10 definitions for glossary was prepared by Muguel Guerra (Portugal) • Capacity building (IT related and non- IT) was again stressed as it is obvious that experts can’t respond to the needs of policy makers if they themselves don’t have capacities.

37. FLIServices meeting –conclusions • The role of countries in FLIServices development would be • to participate at the respective meetings • comment on the outcomes and tools developed, • test the tools, i.e. introducing countries specific information in the tool (testing does not mean in any way publishing the information) • offering best practice or ideas on how to enhance the quality and usability of the tools. • The EEA will bear the costs for development of tools, manage development process and will coordinate activities.

38. FLIServices meeting 25 November pm -26 November pm 2013, Copenhagen, 1,5 days • exchange of countries practices (Belgium/Flanders, Romania) • shaping the content of Blossom analyses (countries vs. crosscutting) • practising prioritised FLIServices tools, preparing and deciding on operational phase in 2014 (LivCat, Blossom, GMT- trends-indicators)

39. FLIServices definition FLIServices is a web-based platform for knowledge sharing in the forward-looking information domain, developed to support workflow and publication, with the following characteristics: • it is demand driven, • controlled by network, • IT facilitated and technologically independent. • It will deliver services that make quality assured forward looking information easily accessible to the Network and eventually to users outside the EIONET. • Technologically independent

40. Long term interest of countries for development of FLIServices Answers received: • Austria – Ana Jakil • Hungary – SzandraSzomor • Netherlands – Ed Dammers • Portugal - Miguel Guerra • Belgium – Marleen Van Steertegem • FYR of Macedonia – RistoJordanovski • Czech Republic- Miroslav Havranek • Kosovo*- AfrimBerisha *under the UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99

41. Long term interest of countries for development of FLIServices

42. Purpose and structure of the questionnaire on FLIS tool • Questionnaire on the structure and fields description of FLIS tools (July-August 2013) • Purpose: • to identify functionalities for each tool according to needs, workflow and input-output elements • to be enhance development process (faster and more to the point of the needs) • to identify common elements • Structure: For each tool to suggest: • Registration part: • Fields to be filled in: • mandatory ones, • needs for search/filtering issues • description of fields • Restrictions needs • Attachments types • Outputs/results part • Key products/elements, • Restrictions needs • Type of documents to be uploaded (graphs, text box, files, photos..)

43. Answers to questionnaire on FLIS tools • 15 questionnaires completed • 6 on BLOSSOM (Austria, Hungary, Portugal, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia ) • 4 on Horizon scanning (GMTs, trends, wild cards..) and other tools (indicators, scenarios and methods/tools(Czech Republic, Portugal, Belgium, Slovakia) • 5 on LivCat(Czech Republic, Hungary, Belgium, Slovakia, Romania)

44. Answers to questionnaire on FLIS tools Comments are based on the country experience and expert judgement: • Tools clusters to be rechecked (HS, indicators, methods/tools..) • DPSIR framework was accepted, but STEEP needs to be supplemented with wider range of possibilities • Crosschecking of fields – to avoid overlaps and adjust to agreed concept/structure framework • Descriptions of fields - commented but not given proposals • Some countries provided very good and detailed comments which will be taken up in the development phase • Some answers were conflicting and decision has to be made which line to take • Very little on description of the field • Name of Blossom tool was questioned (to include also non-Blossom studies) • Some fields on application for policy makers were proposed • More comments received on Liv Catalogue and Blossom as there is more current expertise • Some misunderstandings (probably because of unclear questionnaire)

45. Answers to questionnaire on FLIS tools