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Agricultural Development, Nutrition and Health: Synergies or Tradeoffs ?

Agricultural Development, Nutrition and Health: Synergies or Tradeoffs ?. Will Masters Professor and Chair, Department of Food and Nutrition Policy, Tufts University www.nutrition.tufts.edu | http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters .

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Agricultural Development, Nutrition and Health: Synergies or Tradeoffs ?

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  1. Agricultural Development, Nutrition and Health: Synergies or Tradeoffs? • Will Masters • Professor and Chair, Department of Food and Nutrition Policy, Tufts University • www.nutrition.tufts.edu | http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters C-FARE Organized Symposium at the AAEA annual meetings Washington, DC -- 6 August 2013

  2. Nutrition makes for good headlines...

  3. Is food now sufficiently abundant that it no longer constrains nutrition & health? From Malthus... to Rosling Source: K. Fuglie and S. L. Wang, “New Evidence Points to Robust but Uneven Productivity Growth in Global Agriculture,” Amber Waves, September 2012. Washington: Economic Research Service, USDA.

  4. Some regions are still far from abundance Food supply and real income by region, 1990-2010 Africa has the least food, and is also the poorest Source: FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.

  5. Overall, malnutrition is a disease of poverty

  6. ...and many non-dietary factors intervene e.g. sanitation and disease Exposure to open defecation and childrens’ height-for-age by country, 1990-2010 India Note: Observations are nationally representative country totals from 130 DHS surveys in 65 countries, 1990-2010, with circles are proportional to population. Source: Dean Spears (2013), http://riceinstitute.org.

  7. A variety of logical frameworks are used to diagnose problems and guide intervention The UNICEF framework The FAO FIVIMS framework

  8. Each logical framework posits similarbut somewhat different relationships The Gillespie et al. (2012) framework The Massett (2011) framework, with 7 IFPRI-USAID pathways highlighted by Webb (2013)

  9. The causal framework of economics makes a specific prediction If households are actively trading, then farm production could be separable from consumption Diets and health then depend on income, prices, access and use, rather than just farm production... Source: W.A. Masters, “Economic Development, Government Policies and Food Consumption”, chapter 14 in Jayson Lusk, Jutta Roosen and Jason Shogren, eds., Oxford Handbook on the Economics of Food Consumption and Policy, 2011.

  10. How do recent studies of agriculture’s nutritional impacts define “agriculture”? Recent Evidence Reviews of the Impacts of Agriculture on Nutrition Source: Webb P, Kennedy E. 2012. Impacts of Agriculture on Nutrition: Nature of the Evidence and Research Gaps. Research Briefing Paper No. 4. Boston, MA: Feed the Future Nutrition Innovation Lab.

  11. Meanwhile, farmers face rapid, sustained rural population growth & falling land/worker Rural population growth rates by region, 1950-2055 Africa had over 2% annual growth in the rural population, for over 30 years! AfricaisnowexperiencingAsia’searlierslowdown in rural population growth, butlessquickly 2013 Rural population growth eventually falls below zero; land per farmer can then expand with mechanization Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).

  12. ...and have unprecedented numbers of children per adult earner or care-giver Child and elderlydependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2055 Africahad the world’smostseveredemographicburden(>90 children per 100 adults) AfricaisnowexperiencingAsia’searlier "demographicgift", but lessquickly 2013 Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).

  13. It’s never too late for a green revolution USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960-2013 Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 2 Aug 2013. Results shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.

  14. Higher agricultural productivity lifts farmers out of poverty and into the dietary transition Source: FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture  2013: Food Systems for Better Nutrition. Rome: FAO, June.

  15. Beyond Malthus, universal challenges: Socioeconomic inequality, diet quality etc...

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