STOPS Version 2.5: Enhancements, Recalibration, and Resources

1. Developments with STOPS Version 2.517th TRB Applications ConferenceJune 3, 2019Jeff Roux, FTAJim Ryan, FTABill Woodford, RSG

2. Topics • STOPS Overview • STOPS v2.5 Enhancements • STOPS v2.5 National Recalibration • Other STOPS Resources • Coming Attractions

3. STOPS Overview - How It Started • Streamlining of the FTA’s Capital Investment Grant (CIG) program • Simplified way for sponsors to predict ridership • Source of all FTA ridership-related ratings measures • Trips On Project  sTOPs • Trips on project by transit dependents (0-car households) • Change in total number of weekday transit trips • Change in miles of travel in autos • Promised in the 2012 Final Rule • Joint effort of FTA and RSG • Version 1.0 released in 2013 and periodic updates since then

4. STOPS Overview – How It Works • Platform for transit ridership forecasting • ≈ The transit components of a regional model set • Trip-based and zone-based • Detailed, not “sketch” • Calibrated vs. national transit dataset and validated to FTA “Before-and-After” Studies • Refined using readily available local transit data

5. STOPS Overview - How It Simplifies Forecasting • Standardizes and automates best practices in transit forecasting • Uses readily available data sets • CTPP (journey-to-work data) • GTFS (transit system supply) • MPO (highway times/distances and SE growth projections) • Local transit rider data (APCs, route counts, rider surveys) • Streamlines model development and validation • Requires relatively modest resources

6. FTA CIG Program - # of Projects by Forecasting Method * Warrants and Core Capacity require demonstration of existing ridership & crowding levels (Core-Capacity); no forecasting

7. STOPS Version 2.5 • Recent enhancements: • Better representation of walk access to/from transit system • Direct representation of fares • Direct specification of the full-fixed guideway setting • Improved PNR procedures • Additional results reporting • Recalibration

8. Access to/from Transit • Original simplified approach: • Walk: Via airline connectors @ 3mph up to 1.0 miles • Drive: Via airline connectors @ 25mph • Issues with barriers (water features, mountains, freeways) • New enhanced capability (optional): • Walk access: Via user defined walk network @ 3mph up to 1.4 miles • Drive links: Via airline connectors @ MPO zone-to-zone travel speed

9. Transit Fares • Original simplified approach: • No direct fare representation • Fare differentials represented with equivalent travel times (boarding penalties) • New enhanced capability (optional): • User-specified value-of-time • User-coded fare policy (boarding, transfer and zone-based) • Effect of fare included in path-building and mode choice

10. Improved PNR Processes • Original approach: • Likelihood based on employment density and directness • Over-predicted PNR demand for projects in mid-sized cities • Revised approach: • Likelihood increases where: • Attraction areas have high transit shares for car owning HHs – and – • Transit travel times are competitive auto travel time times

11. Results Reporting • New Reports: • On, offs, and leave-loads for by station/stop by “line” • Boardings by “immediate” access-mode for each station/stop (in addition to boardings by “home-end” access-mode) • Transferring trips by from/to “lines”

12. Other Enhancements • Direct user control of all fixed guideway effects • Reduced computer memory requirements

13. National Recalibration • Two stage process • Static calibration to match observed transit usage by: • Trip maker characteristics – purpose and auto ownership • Transit trip types – access modes, line-haul modes • Dynamic calibration to match transit usage after project opening: • Included recently completed projects from FTA Before and After Studies • Local STOPS implementation calibrated to pre-project condition • Applied to post-project schedules • Forecasted project ridership compared to actual results

14. Sources of Rider Survey Data Static Calibration

15. Sources of Before/After Rider Data Dynamic Validation

16. National Recalibration Results Comparison of STOPS vs. Observed Ridership (Dynamic Test)

17. Other STOPS Resources • GTFSed – GTFS editor • NTI Course: • Phoenix, AZ (June 25-27) - waitlist available • St. Paul, MN (Sep. 10-12) - registration open • FTA STOPS helpdesk: • Jeffrey.roux@dot.gov, 202-366-1806 • Technical support, over-the-shoulder review • Obtaining current program(s) and supporting data

18. Coming Attractions • Changes to STOPS: • Supporting latest CTPP release • Ongoing addition of data from new project openings and recalibration as needed • Changes to how it is used: • Evaluating ridership impacts due to service changes and system redesigns • Assessing mobility benefits of new service plans and of completed projects f

19. Conclusions • Users should begin to update applications to STOPS 2.50 • Other suggestions • Work closely with FTA staff to establish appropriate Fixed Guideway Settings • Make sure to calibrate your application to current year ridership • Engage FTA staff early and often to reduce opportunities for a surprise